Member Info for jointhedots

Oops - Apologies, I posted the last comment on the wrong BB.

WRT loopup - they have already been through a transformational period, one with not a very good outcome. I am really surprised no one else is commenting on the AGM as the company edges closer to suspension.

IMO the company is well positioned to switch up a gear on many fronts in H2 of 2022 and it could really be the start of a transformational period for the company.

They have so many great catalysts that could make a significant difference - I'm not saying news is imminent or that the SP is about to surge, AAZ is a steady type of company and it is more likely to be a low key transformation that will go unnoticed by the thrill seekers on AIM.

Nevertheless I expect to make a very healthy return on my investment here, a few pennies a week on the SP will do nicely.

RightOn - thanks for your viewpoint.

Your comment on the new vein in Gosha supports my own view that it could be massively important in the short term as the big production areas are developed.

At High grades with infrastructure, staff and access tunnels already in place they should make excellent profits from the start. The high grades are what Gosha was expected to deliver but it turned out to be just about OK but never the bonanza setup expected - perhaps this time. I suspect the BoD are being very cautious about overselling it to shareholders until they are sure.

What about the audited Annual results - well overdue and only 2 days left, suspension is required before the end of the week and the vote to approve the results would need to be cancelled if they are not published and distributed (some shareholders have selected postal delivery) - so they should surely already be in the post/published.

This is a perilous position for the BoD to put the company in and they're asking shareholders to back re-appointment of a failing CEO, astonishingly hard faced as ever, or have I missed something as it seems no one else is bothered?

Gavster-NBC - I'm very confused about how you arrive at any conclusion about the company's intent WRT to a share buyback beyond what the company advises. There is no evidence whatsoever to back your assertion unless you know something I don't.

I'm not saying you are wrong, but how you reach a conclusion about some big seller is way beyond me.

Whatever, there is little discernible activity, so nothing to worry about.

The linked article from yesterday suggests that Copper prises are likely to surge in the next few years.

From a selfish shareholder perspective that suggests AAZ may be in the right place at the right time.

"Goldman Sachs metals strategist Nick Snowdon has warned that forecasts of copper prices hitting $15,000 per tonne may be conservative. "

Both AAZ and Libero have huge potential Copper resources - those assets would be very valuable as they are in mining friendly locations - just a question mark over Colombia until the elections are over.

https://www.intellinews.com/copper-prices-set-to-rise-as-supply-lags-247551/

Always a mistake for a management to put an unnecessary deadline on an event , even in good faith.

The approval of the granting of the new licence areas by parliament and government agencies, there is no way they will defy the president so it's just a matter of time.

Hopefully they will be drilling in Gosha now and perhaps even some other licence areas - the priority must be to boost near term production as that pays for the blue sky opportunities.

The markets are actually are generally under pressure at the moment with anxiety over the FED hiking interest rates, AAZs cash position will stand them in good stead if thing turn nasty and finance options dry up - opportunities may even open up. Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies are in the middle of a collapse at the moment and short term I have assumed it is bad for just about everything as wealth is eroded, but in the longer term it strengthens the case for gold I assume

Lots going on and AAZ still is something of an undiscovered backwater in terms of investor interest.

IMO the company should now dispose of the Nigerian JV, sell whilst energy prices are high.

It is a distraction and even if they get all their ducks in a row to drill a hole (pathetic and symptomatic of doing business in Africa is delayed) it will be a distraction and drag on capital resources and management focus for years . If they discover something impressive it still doesn't help.

They have their hands full in Wyoming, chance to build a multi-billion $ business, I don't know how much the African licence is worth, probably nothing until the Nigerian government extends expired timescales - the only upside I can see is that our partner in one of the richest men in Africa and presumably well connect in Nigeria - one of the most corrupt countries in the world.

IMO they should dump it to reduce/mange debt which to me appears to be probably the biggest problem facing the company as interest rates rise.

Wasn't Arthur expecting approval quickly once Covid restrictions stopped - is someone holding the project up, if so why??? Image going forward with the project and finding every step of development takes years - it's not worth it.

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Fort - I'm not sure it will be a problem, they have had no problems financing their assets, or at least haven't so far and IMO will develop the new assets gradually to manage cashflow. It is also worth noting that the the near future opportunities are at existing mines with lots of infrastructure in place - and all for free. Even access roads and tunnels are often overlooked but are significant assets to mines if they provide access to ore..

I agree from a Libero perspective they might have liked a bigger player as a partner, but a bigger player at this stage would probably have scalped them. Now they have options and can go in negotiations with AAZ support when they are good and ready and hopefully get a lucrative out deal for all stakeholders on any one several of the opportunities. The land bank in Colombia is big enough to spawn several mines and is mostly unexplored.

Their CEO, Ian Harris recently presented the case for Libero, see link.

Some very interesting information, that have a huge copper project in Colombia that they believe could easily prove to be a resource of over 1million tonnes copper but also it contains one of the world largest undeveloped Molybdenum deposits that could produce 5% of the world requirement for 20 years. In short it is potentially world class and they see their task is to prove it up and sell on.

They started drilling in March and the only hole they have completed so far according to the CEO provided the tenth best result in the world and the companies that had better results have their projects valued in $billions.

The CEO makes it clear they believe all they have to do is prove it is indeed a major resource and progress it towards production to see it's value soar. He highlights figures of 15 times and 40 times valuation as applied to peers.

AAZ's 19% share of that would be very significant if it's value was multiplied by 15, with the potential from other projects also very impressive.

I think AAZ did the right thing walking away from Conroy in Ireland- I suspect they'll take for ever to get their project moving let alone into production. It'll not be long before they are falling out with their Turkish (not sure how to spell it Turkiiyeish perhaps) partners

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vgZUuJr6bic

The company says in it's latest presentation that Gosha: Hosts a small underground mine, but if we look back at the history of Gosha is not what was originally intended - it was supposed to have a more substantial resource (thicker vein) which was apparently found to be thinner when mining began.

From company website:

"Mining commenced at Gosha in the first quarter of 2014. During the development and early production of the Gosha mine, it became evident that the initial estimated ore vein thickness was not as expected. This not only affected the resource estimate but also resulted in changes in mining method to decrease dilution during mining"

So now in 2022 Gosha is small but the grades have been good throughout it's life, 2.37g/tonne in 2020 and I assume better in the early years as mines invariably go for the better grades first unless they can't.

Which brings around to the point of this post, they have discovered a new and what looks to be high to very high grade gold vein at Gosha. They've called it Hasan and they say they are excited and:

"Significant geological exploration program on-going"
"Extensive underground exploration programme underway at the Gosha mine to define the mineralisation limits of the new “Hasan” vein
• Underground tunnels are being widened and drill galleries are being constructed"

For me this is the most significant operational activity this year, it has the potential to be very significant in maintaining profitability and bridging the gap until the new big scale mines come on stream.

We need to know the thickness, average grade and persistance to assess the true significance - the company has been very careful not to oversell it - probably because of what happened to Gosha in the first place and more lately with Zafir.

Some small mines can have far higher profitability than their larger cousins as the cost of extraction/oz is significantly lower - it is supposed to start producing in H2 (anytime) and I suspect the speed at which it is brought into production will determine if this year is destined to impress or simply meet expectations.

Hopefully it is a thick vein at high average grades then the cost of access/tonne will be nice and low, bear in mind that even for a thin vein access routes have got to be large enough to allow men, ore and materials to pass - but I suspect they'll not tell us until they have clear results from the U/G drilling campaign.

AAZ have so many catalysts that could help transform sentiment, Torn, just about everyone and his dog have funnelled into Azerbaijan to try to boost trade - they are certainly seen as a developing business friendly country (even if allegedly corrupt).

Everything is moving along nicely for AAZ, shares are a long term hold IMO, useless for trading as they move in a small range and the spread is often wide. Nice and safe for a regular dividend with potential for game changing growth.

The purchase of shares in Libero brought in an entirely new dimension and a new team of professional explorers that are getting on with proving out some very significant potential - they recently released another update on the Big Red project in Canada, the drilling season is kicking off and they have mobilised a team, with studies they say identify a large new area, 4kmx4kmx 4km triangle, that adjoins and could be the source of an existing
prospect - so that's another prospect that could provide significant news in the coming months.

I suspect AAZ will be putting more cash into LIbero by accelerate the prospecting. It would be money well spent IMO.

https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/libero-copper-identifies-significant-potassium-110000366.html

The transition is going at a snails pace, they are papering over the cracks but - 2022 was supposed to be the year we saw the new contract wins snowball and make a "material" difference to replace the existing business , I recall they said. Clearly they have not reached as tipping point yet and god knows when that will be - they've kicked the can down the road again.

It's painfully slow, but what also really concerns me is the size of the wins - they appear to be relatively small scale, some must be tiny to produce the low average, again I recall the average size of the leads was of the order of £100,000/yr, the average they have secured is nothing like that. What's gone wrong?

IMO something is not right in connection between the pipeline the wins and supposed % of contracts at a late stage - I really worry that the pipeline is actually a pipe dream - with everything they can possibly claim stuffed into the total and not cancelled out when completion is clearly not feasible.

I have waited to raise my concerns as I did not want to appear scaremongering in the run up to the results - but I get no comfort from the results except a massive relief that they have been able to publish them at all, I was really worried that they would suspend, being so late to publish and pressure on the cash is not a good look.

So, subject to the above concerns, I'm pleased they still have the cash to continue the transition and I think simply based on that the SP will rise in the coming days - a relief rally as no one was expecting much in any case.

aprogerson - you're not got a grip on the purpose - they want the shares to be available to release as a block to if the SP is favourable to release. Of course companies are not allowed to buy shares to push up the SP, so AAZ will get them at a fair price and not to the detriment of remaining shareholders.

Many II's do not or will not but in the open market - is simply not worth their while for what to them is meaningless volume unless they drive the SP to their disadvantage.

It will remove the shares from weak shareholders, allowing an exit without trashing the SP, provides stability to the SP, shows confidence, the new shareholders will be chosen by the company and so the shares would hopefully be held for the long term.

Bearing in mind the concert party already owns enough shares to do whatever they want if they had a desire to do so - this more shows clearly that they are representing all shareholders and want to support the SP - if they had bad intent they would look to destroy confidence and trash the SP.

How can buying cheap and selling high be a bad thing - as one notable poster suggests - it's silly. It will also deter anyone with a mind to trash the company, shorting or be other means (our notable shareholder maybe!).

Also is very encouraging that they do not see a need to be fearful of future cash generation to fund expansion - if they where nervous of their plans they would not take this action, all good IMO!!!

Both Armenia and Azerbaijan are making positive noises about a negotiated settlement, it is a major shift in stance from Armenia who are now far more motivated to settle.

IMO the importance of this for AAZ cannot be stressed enough, a settlement means the country as a whole is seen as a more stable operating location and IMO will lift the SP, on top of that AAZ will get access to what could be an operation that could be very lucrative and I guess the potential of bidding for other properties.

So it's interesting to see what might be motivating Armenia to settle.

During the war Armenia desperately needed the support of the Russians and did their best to draw them in based on the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) group defence agreement. It was likely a very rude awakening for Armenia that the Russian support was muted to say the least. Bearing in mind the US also make supportive noises for Armenia they will be looking long and hard at their options now in light of Russia's lack of support and frailties exposed in Ukraine.

Perhaps very telling and very promising for a settlement is that the CSTO leaders all six of them met this week and Armenia along with others tellingly did not offer support to Russia, all except Belarussia - IMO that would have been unthinkable a year ago.

In light of that I think Armenia and the Russians will be eager to get the land boundaries sorted, politically they could not afford another conflict and Armenia no longer claims the territory - now hopefully in H2 we'll se some positive action and gain access to what is supposedly a fully equipped mine assigned to AAZ in the disputed area.

https://oc-media.org/pashinyan-slams-csto-members-for-arms-trade-with-azerbaijan/

The link is to an article from March and is headlined "New gold deposit discovered in Azerbaijan"

It is about Hasan which the company is excited about, hopefully we'll get some more detail on it soon and a full year production that is very likely to beat last year s be some margin is they get the new operations up and running in H2 as planned.

Interestingly the article also states that the national operator Azergold and AAZ are still the only gold producers in Azerbaijan - neither of the Turkish outfits are in production yet. I think it would be a good move for AAZ to cooperate or partner up with one of them - I was reading about the Turkish outfit that gazumped us with the Conroy deal and apparently they offered Conroy an excellent deal way better than AAZ where offering and apparently became aware of the deal late on in the process after terms where signed. Maybe the fact that AAZ where involved is what alerted them as it seemed a strange choice to me. I also think they will regret it in the end as regulatory/planning requirement and the awkward CEO will make progress painful IMO.

Having a partner on some new projects would be very helpful, especially as the Azerbaijani's owe Turkey big time for the help in the war and the companies appear very well financed. There are sure to be new licence areas released as things settle and there are few companies in Azerbaijan as well placed as AAZ only the Turkish outfits and national company perhaps more favoured.

Even Soutly (ZOD) could be relicensed in the coming years as the military situation settles and access is restored - why not reapply if it's viable.,

I believe we are at a bit of a lull currently, no one really knows if 2022 will be a good year, it's all down to H2. I suspect it will be a good year after seeing the latest offering from proactive investors the CEO appears very confident. He's actually a very personable chap, does come across a guy who cares about the business not simply looking after himself.

https://www.azernews.az/business/190206.html

Well I'm gutted, neve mind I'll live with the pain.

There is no way I will ever believe a junior miner should give up it's cash cushion when it intends to expand and will need money - it's nutty and short sighted and so many companies have finished up desperate for cash and held to ransom by bondholders and banks for doing so (I know I've owned them) - hundreds of examples and many in the gold mining space POG for example once the biggest listed company on AIM tortured be bondholders who shorted the company to take control.

What I can't reconcile is that AAZ do pay a good dividends consistently by any standards of AIM, they have behaved perfectly reasonably IMO.

Tornadotony - I just watched the interview/presentation for the second time, so promising on so many fronts, but as some of you will know I've got quite interested in finding out about Libero and why we really chose them.

So I noticed Reza mentions a visit by his team to LIbero and them being particularly impressed with Ian Slater who he describes as CEO. Actually he's Chairman and founder with another mate and is a serial mining entrepreneur.

I just took a look at his profile and it is very telling on what Libero are all about. He has another very promising gold and silver outfit in Colombia as well as a third which hit problems with resistance to mining.

Anyway I watched a video presentation from him from a couple of years ago and I advise every AAZ shareholder to watch it to gain an appreciation of what we have bought into and what Libero's underlying goal is - it's acquired potentially major projects cheaply and intends to progress through to sale to major in each case IMO.

He discusses assembling a team who a experts in preparing and selling properties to the mining Majors, even talks about value and that average selling prices in S America are $400m for the size of project the are progressing at Macoa and they have huge additional upside potential (especially after they have now discovered more prospects which he didn't know about at the time).

Then Big Red in Canada also looks to have incredible potential with very promising grades in a prolific area.

This is a whole new business strand for AZZ, but having dug a bit deeper into the origins and personnel in the company and listening to a founder talk about selling to a major throughout his presentation I'm more convinced that ever that this is a fantastic investment and not an operational mining opportunity - sale of the assets could realise multiples of the current market cap of AAZ for the company.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KQA950f6SeQ

Gavster-NBC - no, no, no lol

You can't have it that way, you where whinging about the dividend and not the absolute performance as an investment for you over a specific time - that is a totally different story about which I would not necessarily challenge your comment.

My point was simply that a larger dividend was a BAD IDEA.

I would also point out that your experience and mine for that matter does not necessarily have any bearing on the investment of others who chose a better entry point - AAZ could perform better than any of your other shares going forward (or not) you invest your money and take the outcome on the chin.

I really do wish you every success with all your investments including this one - lets agree to disagree