David Paul, Managing Director of VectorVest in the UK joined us to talk through stock picking fundamentals, technical analysis and more. Watch the full video here.
big - "“If loop up ever recovers to the glory days....."
The gory day are yet to come, the £4/share capital raise was on the basis that the SP could break much higher - the business case is on the face of it now much stronger. They simply have to prove that the potential will progress to more than just potential unrealised - shouldn't take long but in the meantime they play their cards so close to their chest the market isn't reassured. When/if they demonstrate good/steady progress in the next RNS, IMO £1+ is doable - no need to conquer the world.
Paddy - I suspect most shareholders realise there is a drag on any rise, you're right that many need a good NEW reason to invest and stick.
The trouble with AIM, one of many problem is that a large proportion of investors are very short term, perhaps the majority - thr MMs and those that play us are acutely aware of how weak many holders are. Because so many do it like CHR155, it works as a strategy, so we can't really blame anyone.
In my early investment days I often kept shares over 5 or 10 years. I can't see 80p being an obstacle though, perhaps 90p
My spirits certainly high and the more I read about the background the more my optimism rises.
There may well be an initial dip in revenue as the company implements it's new strategy - but IMO the strategy is outstanding.
MS teams is the fastest growing MS business App in history, that is extraordinary and the trend goes back to before the pandemic. The linked article, all be it an old one, quotes Jeff Teper, Microsoft’s corporate vice president for Microsoft 365: "Teams ‘will be even bigger than Windows’" That is some claim!!
"Teams is Microsoft's fastest-growing business app ever. That was true in 2018, long before lockdowns started juicing up numbers for remote work and learning. As of April 29, Microsoft Teams had 75 million daily active users, up 70% just six weeks prior.26 May 2020
So I believe Loop have picked the right horse to back and if they can't make a some serious growth out of providing a premium version to their clients. If our directors can't a killing at what is still an early stage then they've no business running any Comms company - I can't see how they can fail to win work and they have very deep experience.
It reminds me over the years of people getting into the right thing at the right time - Video rental shops, ISPs, Data Centres, Vape shops etc - it's easy money for first movers and Loop are not quite the first mover Loop are certainly in early.
The move to promoting/providing cloud telephony and MS has put them on the right track as a growth company.
CHR155, we already know you trade in and out,, good luck to you, your strategy clearly works, don't worry about us we'll hold the fort.
sorros - Boring you am I! Can I suggest politely that you stop being bloody condescending, I'll post what I like, this is a discussing board not sleepy hollow.
I cant' see any contribution from you, if you're still awake, what's your viewpoint?
Based on my last post one might reasonably have expected to SP to move up but the MMs have actually moved the bid down - appears totally counter intuitive with no apparent selling pressure.
IMO, only counter intuitive if MMs are playing a simple passive role, in reality for weeks it has looked like the SP movements have been contrived - I agree with those that there is no clear trend here yet - I tried to buy more this morning and was stopped so I'm happy we are near the bottom of the trough.
I can't get a live price to Buy shares - but can sell 25000 at above 79p and reduces to just above 78p for 40000.
Looks like there is a little upwards pressure and they have none to sell at the current price. Tentative upwards momentum building, but could break down if someone start chucking shares at the sell.
Whatever, it looking a lot better than when we sunk below 70p and there were fears of breaching 60p.
Stranger things have happened.
Would be nice, but I'm not holding my breathe.
News, News or perhaps News is what will drive the SP ultimately to to record highs or into the dirt, as Asklongy says "would need a RNS with some good news to see over £1 this week.". It is a possibility.
However, a steady stream of great news will see us to record highs, sudden large movements in SP are all well and good. but I prefer to see a reason else more often than not the jitters set in and the price retraces.
A simple 2% compound rise per day for three months will see the SP well past £4 /share - I'm hopeful of a good strong run but it won't happen for no reason - we a really waiting for a catalyst to change sentiment.
I like the website too, more importantly though it shows they are addressing sales channels to focus on the new strategy.
Looks like the trading this morning is all buying, not the usual barrage of sells to set the negative trend. It is quiet though as would be expected after the Bank Hol, there are also a bundle of small meaningless trades, 111 shares over 7 trades - what is the point. Believe me it's not a signal, as some suggest, maybe MM correcting books/
Ocelot77 - I'm not suggesting we need to grow like or take on Zoom or MS, I highlighted the growth of both to highlight the scale of the opportunity available. The pie is very large and growing, we only need a small slice.
Loopup are a competitor to both in a narrow band of capability but provide added value services rather than the basic application - both Zoom and MS can continue to have great success and Loopup be a beneficiary - but some players will inevitably fade out if they adopt the wrong strategy.
I read about a takeover of one of one company the other day by a Dutch company that is buying outfits up at great speed to try to cover all cloud comms options and regions (grown rapidly to a $3billion+ company) That's what got me to focus on the link to MS strategy Loopup adopted, they are not trying to cover all bases and have aligned with one product - if that were not an MS Teams offering I would be very worried; as it is the approach looks excellent. 145 million users and growing fast
Small company meeting company 24Sessions (I know their offering was not an exact match for ours, size/market) was taken out and I tried to find out for how much as a potential guide to a Lookup takeout value. That led me to Messagebird a $3bn company who seem to be trying to buy a broad range of capabilities - some of which Loopup could also develop offerings for - I'm just trying to understand of course.
Personally, I think they've got the wrong strategy (time will tell though) but how the hell do they get so big so quick a market Cap so high with a similar number of employees (700) to Loopup when Loopup has flatlined. When we think of a potential buyer for Looppup, shareholders tend to think of the likes of MS, but Messagebird are buying all sorts of capabilities, just bought an email provider SparkPost in a $600 million deal. I'm sure there are many other buyers on the prowl. IMO Loopup probably need to generate some impressive growth to protect themselves, they can't just soldier on like they did in the past.
On the subject of user numbers and the huge growth in Zoom usage. Though indicative of the huge opportunity for Loopup, of course their success does not help Loopup win customers.
However, an article from the same website as I posted yesterday highlights the growth of MS Teams usage and an interesting divergence with competition.
Over the C19 move to homeworking MS teams saw even greater up take than Zoom and apparently reached 145m users by the end of 2020, growing massively - "According to Aternity, between March and June 2020 the communications platform noticed an 894 percent increase in usage, higher than Zoom. "
Interestingly all market participants didn't enjoy the same success (including Loopup as the SP tells us) , the article also includes this statement:
"Microsoft Teams meteoric rise over the past year has been in stark contrast to competitor Slack, with both platforms sharing similar usage figures pre-pandemic. Slack said it had 12.5 million active users in its last update. "
So it looks pretty obvious to me that the market for Lookup is expanding rapidly and clearly MS will not have signed up all those users and as a secondary seller of enhanced services it makes sense that any beneficial effect for Loopup will have a time lag as companies get to grips with what they need long term.
It also looks obvious that Loopup have made a shrewd strategic move in aligning services to MS.
I suspect some of the small suppliers will be under great pressure to compete with the big players over the next few years, whereas Loopup are piggy-backing the success of MS.
If we get a fraction of the growth numbers enjoyed by MS and Zoom, then IMO Loopup will be a multi-bagger as soon as the growth becomes clear.
Just read an interesting article about the growth and value of Zoom. What a great success
Clearly they have been wildly successful, but they do demonstrate the size of the prize Loopup are competing for.
Only launched in 2013 it grew dramatically to 300 million users during the C19 lockdown, but lets not forget many of them were using the service free.
What is exciting and actually shows that Loopup has been a laggard (a failure) in the stock market, Zoom's valuation went from $1bn in Jan 2017 to exceed $100 billion during the pandemic on revenue of $2.6bn and 470000 business customers.
Clearly we are not in the same league as Zoom, but the growth has been dramatically quick - and should be encouraging to shareholders. It is only when comparing key parameters that the true level of Loopup's undervaluation ( or Zooms overvaluation) becomes evident
They have about 100 times more business customer (I'm assuming they are the only revenue generators for comparison) but a valuation of comparisons on revenue/ customer shows Zoom with $5532/customer and Loopup $14140/customer. Significantly bigger customers for Loop - isn't that better and in line with Loopup's strategy?
Comparing Market Cap/Revenue ratio Zoom is 38.46 (100/2.6), whilst for Loopup it's a measly 0.86 (43/50.2), now I'm no mathematical (can't guarantee my maths) or investment genius but you don't need to be to see that even accounting for Zoom's massive success and momentum - if Loopup enjoys any success at all one or both of those valuation is grossly out of sync. Loopup turnover is essentially valued at 50 times less than Zoom - forget the hype or number of users, companies thrive on revenues.
Another interesting comparison is that Zoom grew user numbers over 5 fold in 2020 and as Loopup was more or less static, that may explain some market disappointment and SP weakness - but that perhaps also hides that Zoom were providing a freebie and many of those users may well eventually switch rather than pay; in contrast Loopup lost customers to Zoom and others that did not want to pay for a premium service and IMO have now rightly consolidated on the PS side of the business
Superficially the article could be depressing as our SP is so low, but when you look at the valuations possible, growth and customer balance comparison - I think Loopup looks a pretty good bet and it has given me optimism on a boring day.
Worth a read to see the size of the opportunity.
Bigsmoke - zoom have their freebie offering that has become so popular and a pay version which presumably has security systems in place - I would expect lawyers to fork out for the pay version - but wbo knows.
When I posted earlier about government entities, I left off the likes of the MoD, MI5, Cabinet office not by accident but because I assumed that Loopup could not possibly offer the security necessary to win the work. But I'm actually watching the Domenic Cummings testimony on TV and a few minutes ago he said meetings discussing (from the cabinet room with the PM/Health Secretary where joined by various people via Zoom.
Unbelievable, that matters of national importance where discussed via had hoc systems - I would have thought they would have mandated systems.
Loopup ought to write to the the appropriate IT leads in government and highlight their service and the risks they are taking. Unbelievable how incompetent they were in dealing with CV
bigsmoke - I worked for a company that provided consultancy services to government departments, people just don't realise to size of government, many NHS trusts alone have budgets of over billion pounds . and the proposed merger of Guy's and St Thomas' Trust et al will create a super trust with 21000 staff and £2 billion turnover. For example, Police, DWP, Ofsted, Fire Service, Local Government etc etc, the list goes on and on into hundreds of organisations - the opportunity is huge.
The company have updated the corporate website, mainly just restructured same information but includes this:
"Powering the global journey to cloud telephony with Microsoft Teams
One service provider. One management system. One deployment.
Full cloud PSTN replacement in 67 countries."
New home page includes the above statement obviously emphasising the number countries the company is compliant in, now 67. That's well ahead of expectations and they have created a new section on "Coverage" where they say that they are now:
"One provider for all your global cloud communications needs
With fully compliant PSTN replacement in 67 countries (including China and India) and flexible solutions elsewhere, we offer cloud-based Microsoft Teams Calling in more places than any other provider"
Clearly they see their broad international presence as a principal selling point "we offer cloud-based Microsoft Teams Calling in more places than any other provider", they do look like they are transforming into a true global provider - IMO that does put further distance between them and new market entrants in their PS market sector and at a minimum puts them on par with the competition.
India and China are huge markets, with India alone apparently 200m people in the middle class - mind you I expect India would be a very hard nut to crack with it's large capability in IT/ comms and cheap labour- I recall even Vodafone struggled there.
I'm sure the global reach will form part of the next operational update.
My one criticism - I found the link to Invertor information but it is hidden at the bottom of the page (OK it's predominantly a customer website - but they don't appear to have updated any of it and no IR effort that I can find. Shareholder engagement is definitely seen as low priority.
Whilst many companies apparently were taking the P*ss with greatly inflated costs for essential supplies and services during the deep depths of the Coronavirus crisis - Loopup provided Free meetings to a NHS Trust "St George’s NHS Foundation Trust", Good on them along with Astra Zeneca and shame on PPE leeches.
It was also very good business as cracking the huge opportunity the public sector offers , sector employs over 20 millions, offers would clearly be a major boost.
stew200 - my apologies, I struggle with cryptic posts. lol Reminds me of an experience I had many years ago
I once sat next to some Woman on a plane on long haul flight, she introduced herself and suggested we do the times crossword together using the cryptic clues to pass the time. I know in hindsight I should have been sharp enough to bow out gracefully, but I'm polite. My god the times crossword seems to take forever, I had to go through what seemed like an eternity where she absolutely made me look like the complete fool I was as she filled the damned thing in and even after explaining the clues to me and giving me the answers I couldn't understand - I felt so thick, my brain simply said I'm having non of this and switched off. In the end she gave up and let me go to sleep, ending the hellish experience.
So I'm now allergic to anything cryptic - perhaps a surge in SP will cure me.
mornington - exactly, though those that paid £4 a share when prospects were not as bright would probably think anything under £4 is cheap.
My personal feeling is that £2ish is doable - though I have no specific reason to pick that number except it's a nice round one and provides a nice profit for me.