Member Info for jointhedots

Digger01 - thanks for posting that - nothing but good news and excellent prospects as the boss says.

Nice to see the finance director confirming properly my earlier ramblings on Grades and AISC.

The SP fall was disappointing but the day has finished on the up so can't complain. Was particularly pleased with the confirmation that they are comfortable with the cash position, also have a $15m bank loan available/ undrawn and curious that Bill also mentioned they are looking at other additional finance options - I take it as a sign of prudence and good management in preparing for the future and ensuring options are available (no point asking for money when you need it lol) - in light of that there should be no problem in developing all assets concurrently or even taking on something else.

Libero are pressing on with exploration at 3 sites in 3 countries all of which appear to offer great potential for value enhancement.

The ones in Argentina and Canada are both in prolific mining areas with big operators either exploring or mining in the region - both should progress nicely in the coming years.

I did say I thought they (Libero) seemed to be more an exploration and sell on outfit than operator and was sceptical they would be involved in operating a large mine - if it ever gets to that stage and AAZ are still involved I think it will be with a different partner..

So out of interest I've just taken another look, as to be honest there is little more to be said about the results (nothing I can add at least) except I'm glad they are out of the way and we can focus on this and next year.

The company say the Mocoa deposit is within a structural belt that stretches through from Colombia to Ecuador , in fact they mention 2 very large and developing/producing deposits in Equador - I don't think there are many examples in Colombia as Libero say they were the first to be licenced in 30 years and control most of the land in the area. Anyway they mention Mirador in Equador which is apparently becoming the largest mine in the country, these really are world class deposits.

The interesting bit is that the Miraror mine was bought and opened by a Chinese outfit from a canadian company which Libero's President & CEO helped prepare for sale - read into it what you will but the read across for me is that Libero will most likely look for an out and a big pay day - AAZ are clearly not the target buyer to stump up big money but could share the spoils. And make no mistake it's not chicken feed, if Mocoa progresses to a major opportunity like Mirador and there is no reason it shouldn't, it's worth noting that Ian Harris's previous outfit apparently sold for a whopping $690 million.

"Ian Harris - President & CEO, Director Advanced to construction first large-scale mine in Ecuador –
Mirador, Corriente (sold for $690 M)"

A nice potential earner on the back burner with very little downside for AAZ IMO

Is it really?

That makes yesterday today then?

As I have suggested this morning, it has been Jam yesterday, today and hopefully for out tomorrows with this company - of the dozen or so companies you have posted about recently how many pay the near 28% dividend at the run rate you suggested for AZZ should this morning or even the over 9.27% they actually are paying.

Lets me guess - None.

I'm off out mate, I've got appointments yesterday and tomorrow and I can't afford to miss them both.

Lets be realistic, the 2021 results were never going to impress anyone, it was a year of transformation.

The market will base the SP going forward on the prospects for the company, some searching for Dividends may move on, but they would be moving away from a company that pays meaningful and sustainable dividends as a matter of policy into a world where inflation is surging and there is a view from some that real interest rates are likely to be very elusive.

The total dividend for the year is $0,095 or 7.6p - what on Earth can anyone expect and I would ask the poster suggesting it should be triple that tro get real and check the other companies they follow which cant' get near that. Bearing in mind AAZ have made clear they are retaining cash for investment, they paid "Total dividends of $10.9 million paid in 2021" , thats not insignificant.

Based on the current 82p headline buy price for shares that's a return of 9.27% for the year - anyone that thinks that's a bad return from a listed UK company is in la la land.

They would be deemed to be amongst the most stupid operators of any mine if they paid of their cash reserves for 1 year to make a few shareholders happy then had to tap shareholder for expansion money.

They are doing fine, things are progressing well, the prospect look bright, the risk profile is good - they just need to speed up development of their assets and the SP will fly IMO.

There is so much to look forward to on the Mid to long term horizon with loads opportunities to progress (if anything too many) and apparently Azerbaijan are planning on issuing more mineral licence areas and Libero having loads of opportunities at multiple locations finding more all the time.

So I have no worries for the longer term - it's the short term performance that they need to secure 2022 and 2023 - they look like they have a grip on it but they need to provide more guidance IMO.

There was nothing surprising in the results, but I think we now need something to inspire confidence - maybe a bullish statement on Hasan or Libero where they appear to be making excellent progress.

Gavster-NBC - Well I am NOT one who shares your views - they would be idiots to raid their cash pile with so many opportunities to invest in - IMO they need to up production via better grades more than anything else - the money is needed for operational investment. This is a GROWTH company transitioning into mature dividend payer, but the operational growth must underpin the dividend growth or it will all fall in a heap at some point.

The AISC have increased as a result of general inflation but also as a result of lower grades (not strictly speaking the overall production fall) which in reality is the real reason for reduced production and profit. Lets be honest, the mistakes were made year ago by being too slow to identify and develop new reserves. Now we have fantastic opportunities that unfortunately they can't bring on stream quickly enough to boost current production and profit.

The recently discovered Hasan vein offers greatest short term potential as major new deposits are developed, IMO that is the main potential source of an increase in grades and profitability in the short term, it all depends on the scale of the find and they have not disclosed how significant it is yet (does it contain 1000oz, 10000oz or more - could be anything). They have said this will impact full year production even though it doesn't come on stream until Q4, to me it suggests the grades are significant.

"In March 2022, we announced the discovery of a new sub-vertical gold vein, "Hasan", to the south of the Gosha mine. The vein was discovered by surface drilling and can easily be accessed from the existing underground tunnelling. It possesses bonanza gold intersections of up to 229.5 grammes of gold per tonne. We are evaluating the vein and developing a mine plan for Hasan, with ore production set to commence from the beginning of the fourth quarter of the year."

Fortunately the company is well run and profitable so they have time to bring on new production - But they need the Cash pile to do it in a timely fashion.

There was a meeting between Russia and the Armenian and Azerbaijani foreign ministers last week to discuss a settlement of the disputed territories.

Subsequent Azerbaijan have presented their demands and over the weekend details of the Armenian their position with 6 points they wish to secure.

All looks very promising IMO, as Armenia have said they make no territorial over the disputed enclave - what was new to me was that there a other enclaves within each country the the Russian appear to have assigned to the wrong country.

Looks farcical and reminiscent of the British dividing up India at independence in an insensitive way, anyway its progress and I'm hopeful it will lead to AAZ accessing their mine soon.

Deciphering the future trend for Gold has never been easy or accurate even for experts armed with oceans of data.

I've just checked the Kitco suggestions and as usual Gold gets the thumbs up from some and the kiss of death with equal enthusiasm from others, the points raised be all sides tend to be equally plausible; but it was historically accepted that Gold was inversely linked to the $US and rose along with Oil and commodities in general - is that still the case?

Strangely oil has surged massively but in conjunction with a $US being at a 20 year high this week - so what's going on , that's not supposed to happen, but for Gold it has been a tale of stagnation really which in truth over the years mean a falling price in real terms - so I suppose my questions are "is Gold cheap or expensive?" and is the $US going to tumble?

Other factors include interest rates which are rising and are in theory bad for gold, but if accompanied by wild inflation (started and likely to persist) it actually makes gold is even cheaper as an edge against inflation.

IMO the key is the $US and as it's at an all time high for no real reason accept it's global currency status as various crisis develop around the world. I can't see how it can rise much higher without crushing other economies and triggering a collapse in trade, as borrowing costs soar and they have to pay greater and greater premiums for $ priced commodities

Anyway with that in mind I come to come to the new kid on the block, Crypto Currency, the dream investment for the group that think they know better than logic suggests and any seasoned professional investor. It was supposed to make gold superfluous, supposedly offering the same safe haven potential from traditional currencies but without the physical problem of storing it. Wonderful!

Well it looks like that's gone for a ball of chalk, all currencies are well down and many investors are in too deep to contemplate selling and are worried the bottom may be much lower, in fact many investors have now lost everything - so much for a safe haven in a time of trouble. Some articles suggest suicides are to be expected. Anyway distressed sellers in one sector invariable lead to redemptions in other assets as positions must be covered - is that holding gold back temporarily?

I suspect the demise of (though improved today) Crypto would be very bullish long term for gold as the FOMO which has gripped the sector for so long is replaced by fear o being in it. For the most part here is nothing of substance holding those Crypto currencies up accept faith of investors.

Whatever I suspect as/if fear grips the markets the price could rise substantially.

This has got crazy now, anyone looking in for the first time might wonder if the oil price had collapsed or the company had had an unsuccessful exploration programme.

Assuming all is well, and there is no reason to think otherwise some people are going to make a real killing on this.

An old and exhausted adage but pertinent nevertheless "it's always darkest before the dawn", dawn will come!

The RNS doesn't actually indicate how many shares they now hold, it only gives the position on 20-Apr-2022 when the threshold was crossed

I assumed it to be zero because of the delay (provided more selling time without alerting the market and then throw the hand grenade in when their position was sorted) - maybe I'm being synical.

No - it doesn't look right.

3.87% to 0 - what happened to passing through 3% threshold, it's not been done in a few days.

Having said that I will repeat my understanding which I have many times on the BBs - there is nothing to compel foreign based shareholders disclosing and no entity ever seems to get punished in any case.

Hopefully that's our main seller gone.

The investment in Libero was a bolt on from the blue really and I'm still not sure about it, my concerns are more about the timescales and loss of focus than anything else as the price to get in big scale resources seems attractive.

The prospects are great but do AAZ really need the distraction and financial commitment when they have a massive commitment to opportunities in Azerbaijan which can deliver their medium term ambitions and more besides.

Libero, seem to be an outfit that accumulates valuable licences and then tries to progress them towards operational mines - all good, but I'm not convinced they are in it to see things through to production.

Looks more like an outfit which will sell out when they get the right premium valued approach, nothing wrong with that and AAZ could do very nicely, but it means there may be no drive to production as was the stated benefit of bringing AAZ in as a keystone investor. I see no plans for further exploration yet after the recent borehole hopefully AAZ will ensure firm plans are put in place, it's important everywhere but even more so in Colombia, as depending on where the site is the rainy season can rule out activity for parts of the year - part of the Putumayo is a contender for the wettest inhabited place on Earth with rivers that feed the Amazon.

Time will tell, but I can't see the Colombian assets being developed to production for many years as there is a huge amount of exploration, analysis and permitting to do if things go well and every success will lead to more exploration. I've invested in the area before (via a useless oil company) and key issues include, environmental, social opportunists, political change that throws everything into contention, rebels, accessibility and more.

To me the project is one for the big players, AAZ and Libero are out potentially of their depth unless they go at a snail's pace - for instance they have just completed "the interpretation of the detailed airborne magnetic and radiometric survey" from last year,

Identified 9 new prospects around the Mocoa deposit, great stuff, but now they say they are going to systematically investigate them as well as the main discovery and presumably the large tract of surrounding land.

You can see where I'm going with this, it is huge and the US opportunities also have exploration plans to progress that are behind schedule - I think the company is best focusing on Azerbaijan and letting Libero keep the American continent stuff ticking over.

Looking at the positive for the medium term, the most interesting disclosure for me was that 3 of the 9 new prospects are potentially gold bearing which I suspect could be developed much quicker on a small scale than a world class copper mine - and align with AAZs expertise.

In summary - IMO great prospects to buy and even better if they can be sold at a hefty profit - perhaps it was bought to give AAZ the stature to be attractive as a takeout target to

Tornadotony - I just read the article you posted, it provides two clear reasons why AAZ could be a great investment - but IMO there are far more than two, and we get precious little publicity.

I mentioned Zod in my previous post and though we relinquished that licence there is a distinct possibility AAZ are negotiating for other licence areas - our seized mines (licence areas) were not the only ones started by the Armenians whilst occupying the territory (I have read there where hundreds if not thousands of operations launched and some must have had a reasonable scale) presumable the permissions are now all void and licences will become available. Hence, I suspect various countries meeting with Azerbaijani government to discuss development of infrastructure and natural resources.

Most notably Turkey (see links) who are a strong supporter and massive restraint on Russia. The UK has also met, I suppose Iran might also be interested as the new road linking the Southern regions makes access much easier - Iran has a Mining industry and close relations so who knows.

https://aze.media/azerbaijan-is-ramping-up-gold-production/
https://www.dailysabah.com/business/2-turkish-firms-granted-operating-rights-to-3-azerbaijani-mines/news
https://ann.az/en/ilham-aliyev-approves-azerbaijan-turkiye-deal-on-co-op-in-mining-industry/

It's all looking good IMO with AAZ enjoying first mover advantage and very good relations with government and the local population, I'm sure there will be new opportunities none of us have yet considered, perhaps even partnering up on a new venture with one of the Turkish companies.

Interestingly the link below updates on the damage done and the intent to chase compensation for illegal gold mining (so no chance of previous incumbents being allowed to operate. I'm not sure if AAZ could be entitled to any compensation, I guess not but the Vejnali gold mine in Zangilan is specifically mentioned as are the operators of the other two mines, Geo Pro Mining and Vallex. Bearing in mind AAZ are currently doing their assessment of the Vejnali mine perhaps we will be part of the claim or might make a claim if the Azerbaijani government is successful.

https://caspiannews.com/news-detail/azerbaijan-to-launch-legal-proceedings-demanding-compensation-for-damage-and-ecological-terror-committed-by-armenia-2022-5-8-0/

I reckon the new assets assigned to AAZ could be worth over $500m once integrated, even before any significant expansion. Hundreds of millions have been spent on these assets and AAZ, have got them for free. IMO there has been no value assigned to this large additional Azerbaijani asset base, let alone the promising US and South American assets.

Many years ago AAZ where in the wrong place/time having been granted licences which were lost in a war, more recently they regained 3 licences (possibility of restoration) due to another war. I just took a look at more recent developments since then and this is my understanding.

1) Now the company is progressing one of the mines, Vejnaly – Zangilan, to production as quickly as is practicable (sensibly). They have inherited a developed and worked mine but with what looks like good facilities and accessibility to reserves - good enough for production to commence in H2 2022. Mines typically take years to get up and running so the timescale tells it's own story.

2) The company has also gained the Kyzlbulag mine in the disputed territory. This was apparently an operating entity up to the start of the recent fighting and was by all accounts very profitable being the second largest taxpayer in the region. AAZ say the previous operator had spent over $130m on the mine plant (I've seen articles that suggest they spent far more overall, $250m according to the first linked article).

Maybe we are now going to get lucky with this as the original owner Russian owned Vallex have lost historically and more recently in court to their lenders VTB bank who to the best of my knowledge would be the mine owners should the Armenians hold sway, which they don't of course. Nevertheless they have a different view on ownership and could hope for a change in fortunes.

Worth noting VTB have just closed down the other big Armenian mining operation, Teghut, they had seized from Vallex - that's because of Russian sanctions, clearly not directly related to AAZ but it means the unquestioned security provided to Armenia by aligning with Russia is no more. They will need to get the mine up and running to get any revenue or jobs - the option is to get nothing.

I'm hopeful there could be a breakthrough soon especially as the Azerbaijani's are taking territory and demanding the Russians move out as was the expectation and the territory is restored. The mine is supposedly near a damn it a turnkey operation with trained personnel waiting to return to work, so the target of a start next year is credible.
https://hetq.am/en/article/125270
https://news.am/eng/news/690813.html

3) Finally we swapped Zod for three new licences - I was initially very disappointed because it had superb gold grades and large resources, however the new licences look great and very complimentary to existing assets. Also soldiers are still firing at each other at Zod so there was no chance of AAZ gaining access any time soon.

This is incredibly cheap just based on the assets, let alone for a profitable production and proven operational experience and reputation as a Can-Do outfit.

With companies like this there always tends to be a group of investors obsessed with analysing the SP to the exclusion of any other effort to analyse the situation. There are some great posts on here but a lit of drivel about SP with no reasoning to wade through. It may have escaped some, but the broader market has been under pressure and COPL is following the trend in the absence of news.

Dozens of posts a day with no content except speculation on the SP causing some shareholder to lose patience - why not do some research or liberate cash to actually buy shares instead.

Try taking a look at the underlying business, prospects or the broader stock market and it becomes clear why the SP has moved down and why the potential for a correction to the upside is all but guaranteed if the company executes even it's short term plan (buys Cuda, refinances and just progresses operational plans - we don't need the outcome just progress).

IMO, there will either be a back to back deal on Cuda and refinancing or at least a deal very shortly afterwards. Once that's sorted the skies will start to look very blue for COPL.

The linked article is about the expansion prospects for Gold mining in Azerbaijan, only a couple of weeks ago in discusses AAZ and other operators including a new Turkish group - I'm not sure it it's the same one as the group that took AAZ's place with Conroy Gold in Ireland.

Some of the spelling is a little off, maybe in translation, but good information nevertheless.

https://aze.media/azerbaijan-is-ramping-up-gold-production/

Looks like we have 3 obvious potential new production sources in the short(ish) term

Zafar - which is being evaluated and production planned
Vejnaly - which could develop into a very significant asset
and the new Hasan vein at Gosha

The company say:
"We are highly encouraged by the discovery of the promising Hasan vein, which looks to be an exciting addition to the Gosha mine. We are now planning the mining of the vein, whilst our ongoing assessment work at Vejnaly continues to progress."

The latter 2 are expected to come into production in H2 and we are due an update on production expectations for the year any time now.

What is really the most exciting (the company says it is) is the Hasan vein - we don't know how much ore it contains of its grade - if significant then it could ensure success for the next couple of years.

The reason it caught my attention was these statements:

"o Vein can be easily accessed from existing underground mine workings
o Bonanza gold intersections of up to 229.5 grammes of gold per tonne returned"

Yesterday I posted "Grade and disposition are everything in mining", well obviously spot intersections don't necessarily mean high grades are persistent but it is very promising and make note the statement does not refer to a Bonanza intersection - it's INTERSECTIONS with the reference grade simple being the highest recorded.

It will be interesting to see how soon they can be mining it, presumably very quickly once planned.

This BB actually reflects the company's situation, something of a forgotten backwater.

The reasons a pretty obvious and I actually stopped posting a while ago because I felt I was talking to myself. The company has made small mis-steps with the aborted purchase of the Irish assets and most concerning IMO the reducing ore grades only offset be increasing bulk tonnage in the short term.

Grade and disposition are everything in mining unlike other industries - a small scale operation can be far more profitable than a large one.

However, things have moved on dramatically (though it's not been recognised) the company has discovered new near term gold reserves that can turn things around and is in the process of consolidating new and restored licence areas . The company now has clear visibility of future revenues and production and loads of upside including Libero which has excellent prospects in 3 countries including a potential world class resource in Colombia.

So loads of potential good news, including surprises (drilling in Canada, new discoveries, access to mines in disputed territory, government granting new licences).

The skirmishes in the disputed Azerbaijani territories don't help the SP in the short term, but IMO the Russian are in a poor position to intervene especially as the Turks are backing Azer and desperately need them to stay out of the way in the Ukraine conflict - it will all sort itself out in the region, hopefully via an amicable settlement between Armenia and Azer.

So IMO lots for the company to do, but many options to prosper and we should keep seeing dividends, which provides massive confidence in the companies competence to mange mining operations.

Happy to hold at this low SP.

Libero have completed the assessment of the exploration drill hole now -all good and they are exploring how to verify expand the result laterally.

Even more interestingly, they appear to have updated on the detailed airborne magnetic and radiometric survey data, flown at the end of 2021. Lots of information on promising new targets, 9, and potential extensions to the Mocoa deposit - it's a big deposit and could get much bigger - great investment by AAZ.

https://www.newswire.ca/news-releases/libero-copper-identifies-9-new-porphyry-targets-including-significant-expansion-potential-at-mocoa-844400739.html