Member Info for JohnLewis79

Markets across Asia are trading higher following the broadly positive cues from global mrkts and a strong close on Wall St where the 500 consolidated its position above 5100 points. US inflation data and a drop in 10y/tb pleased investors.

The Nikkei 225 is closed on account of it being Showa day honouring emperor Hirohito's birthday 1926-1989. Elsewhere in Asia Hong Kong up for the 5th straight sessionp as properties see buyers return. Taiwan second to Tokyo in global best performer stakes is well ahead in morning trade (+c.2%) along with Shanghai benefiting from strong demand among technologies.

Sydney is significantly ahead going into the close on the back of resource stocks, financials and gold miners. The ASX200 was up 70 heading to the close and just in positive territory for the year.

Investors were busy sealing their gold holdings last week as future's test $2350 though analysts point out the latest economic data puts Central Banks in a difficult position as inflation remains elevated and Govt debt and slowing growth are providing support for gold if headaches for equity investors.

Latest :- Vix 15. Brent 87.

Gold $2331. Copper 4•602.

Palm $1027. Silver $27•300.

$1•255. €1•169. 10ytb 4•669%

FF +42. DF +132.

Morning all.

More MSi data:-

5 day +12%

30 +14%

90 +2%

Ytd +5%

52 +80%

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DJ +154 (38,240)

SP +52 (5100)

NS +288 (17,718)

R2 +10 (1284)

WTI $84

10ytb 4•669%

-----------

MSCI(W) +28 (3335)

Gold Bugs +2 (269)

----------------

Close :- Vix 15. Brent $88.

Gold $2337. Copper $4•587.

Palm $1027. Silver $27•225.

Yen 158. Yuan 7•25.

$1•249. €1•168.

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Nyse data

Issues 2887

Advances 1859

Declines 941

U/c 87

NH 81

NL 22

T/vol(bn) 3•6

------------

Morning all

Volumes and deals surged yesterday and on the week with over 127,000 shares exchanged . Investors drew comfort from the Govts commitment to increase defence spending to at least 2•5% of gdp. Whether MSi will be a beneficiary of the millions being splashed out is not known. Suffice to say we should be on the list.

Wk 17

----

Sp 900-910

L/yr 500

H 935

L 443

7/88 113

----

Trds 114

Vols 127,000

Buys 75,000

Sells 52,000

Buy % 60

----

Av trd 1105

Av £ 1140

----

Ytd

---

MSi +5%

100 +5%

250 +1%

All +4%

Aim -1%

---

Morning all.

Issues 2889

Advances 839

Declines 1975

U/c 75

NH 44

NL 48

T/vol(bn) 4•0

------------

DJ -375 (38,086)

SP -23 (5048)

NS -96 (17,430)

R2 -11 (1274)

WTI $83

10ytb 4•697%

-----------

Latest :- Vix 15. Brent $88.

Gold $2335. Copper $4•576.

Palm $952. Silver $27•435.

$1•250. €1•166.

FF +60. DF +85.

The Dow slumped over 700 at one time before wiser heads prevailed. The mrkt ended over 1% down at 38,086 by the close. Dow futures are called 50 better and the 500 to close the week in positive territory.

Signs of persistent inflation are dampening hopes of a rate cut in the first half as US Q1 GDP came in at 1•6% much lower than forecast as inflation gathered pace to 3•4%. Growth stocks came under pressure following Meta's 2 day fall of $61(13%). Alphabet and Msoft will report after the mrkt closes on Thursday.

IBM ($168) came off 9% after it announced it would buy HashCorp in a deal worth $6bn to expand its cloud based software business. The company also missed consensus estimates for Q1 revenues. Southwest Airlines ($27) slid 8% after it slashed estimates for new deliveries from Boeing.

Boeing is having production problems, a credit rating downgrade from Moodys, multiple legal actions resulting from the Alaska Air accident and in the midst of buying its key supplier SpiritAeroSystems.

On a brighter note Newmont ($43) the world's largest gold miner gained 10% beating Wall's estimates for Q1 profits. The company also disclosed plans to divest non core assets and trim its workforce to reduce debt after the acquisition of Newcrest in November.

Morning all.

Mrkt talk yesterday was all about is the US Nsdq exchange about to acquire London's Aim mrkt. Likely at this stage its just wishful thinking by bored traders but here's a thought.

In 2000 UK listed equities made up 11% of the MSI World Index which tracks 1500 companies. That is down to 4pc now. Citi research shows MSCI UK Index which tracks 80 of the bigest UK listed firms trades at a near 40% discount to the 625 strong US Index.

Valuations of British companies are egregiously low according to Nick Train a leading fund manager who has a 4% stake in the LSE saying one way to wake up investors was if a giant UK blue chip launched a takeover of Aim.

Taking Aim away from the LSE opens up a myriad of possibilities as NSDQ European operations have been growing fast. Adding AIM despite its problems would put rocket boosters under its network which includes seven exchanges inc those of Sweden, Denmark, Iceland and Finland.

The timing could be fortuitous as in 2007 there were 1700 companies listed on Aim now down to 738 with just 1 company joining this year so far.

DJ -43 (38,461)

SP +1 (5072)

NS +55 (17,527)

R2 -3 (1285)

WTI $83

10ytb 4•650%

-----------

MSCI(W) +1 (3323)

Gold Bugs u/c (256)

----------------

Nyse data

Issues 2890

Advances 1186

Declines 1596

U/c 108

NH 58

NL 30

T/vol(bn) 3•7

-------------

Latest :- Vix 16. Brent $87.

Gold $2310. Copper $4•451.

Palm $1042. Silver $27•020.

$1•246. €1•164.

FF -1. DF -54.

Talking point of the day was the after hours slump in Meta stock price which fell 15% to $419. Earnings came out above expectations (Q1+27%) but Zuckerberg said the company would spend billions more on Ai which shocked investors. Capex is forecast to rise between $37bn-$40bn from $28bn last year.

Meta woes weighed on the wider mrkt as big cap techs fell in sympathy. Bucking the trend Tesla added $17 to $162

on reports sales would be up this year and production of more affordable EVs would start in early 2025. They are expected to be priced around $25,000. On the big board gainers outpaced losers by 18 to 12 with Boeing propping up the losers after its fist Q loss in 7 quarters. Plane deliveries fell 47% in the quarter.

Boeing never out of the news reported a Q1 loss of $1•13 per share on revs of $16•6bn which were better than forecast. Boeing declined to give any 2024/5 guidance even after United and Delta said they are talking to Airbus. Boeing has a massive order backlog of 5591 planes worth c.$500bn.

Morning all.

We have seen the occasional spike up in trades in the past which subsequently amounted to nothing. Have no reason to think todays 45 trades are any different.

At least the shares have broken out of the 820-840 range but need to kick on from here before anyone gets too excited.

Evening all.

US mrkts closed higher yesterday following positive earnings from blue chip companies with some of the 'Mag7' reporting this week. Tesla announced the launch of new EV models and Q revenues that missed estimates. In after hours trading the stock was up $19 to $164 on the propect of more affordable models.

Investors were also pleased with Q1 earnings from GM ($45) which topped forecasts and raised guidance thanks in the main to truck sales out performance. Spotify (290 eu) the Swedish streaming giant posted gross profits that topped 1bn euros for the first time.

GE Aerospace was helped up 8% on bullish F/Y profit forecasts however Jet Blue ($6•25) the low cost carrier tumbled nearly 20% as the company warned on forward revenues following lukewarm Q nos.

Data showed that US business activity cooled in April to a 4 month low due to weaker demand suggesting positive relief ahead of rising consumer prices.

DJ +264 (38,504)

SP +59 (5071)

NS +260 (17,471)

R2 +24 (1288)

WTI $83

10ytb 4•621%

-----------

MSCI(W) +40 (3323)

Gold Bugs +4 (256)

----------------

Nyse data

Issues 2891

Advances 2339

Declines 485

U/c 67

NH 64

NL 15

T/vol(bn) 3•7

-------------

Latest :- Vix 16. Brent $87.

Gold $2327. Copper $4•468.

Palm $1015. Silver $27•465.

$1•245. €1•163.

FF +54. DF +58.

Morning all.

Easing tensions in the ME helped underpin sentiment as bargain hunters returned in force seeking oversold counters. Buying the 'dips' is a popular strategy among pis just as the 500 has hit a rough patch down nearly 6% this month.

Investors sought out tech growth stocks Amazon, Alphabet and Apple all reporting this week, while Nvidia ($793) rebounded 4% from a 10% sell off in the previous session. Tesla ($142) dropped 3% as the car maker cut prices in China & Germany following price reductions in the US. The stock has fallen 18% this last month and the Q results are expected to be the worst in 7 years. Ford Motor ($13) shone gaining 6% having been overlooked recently.

On the big board GS, JPMC & Amazon led the risers with Disney, UH & Verizon propping up the laggards. Twenty five of the top (30) gained on the day.

Cardinal Health ($104) fell 5% as the drug distributor said its contract with OptumRe, one of United Health Groups divisional companies will not be renewed after June.

On the economic front March personal consumption data (PCE) nos will be released this week.....,the preferred measure of inflation used by the Fed. Expected

small uptick to 2•6%.

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Nyse data

Issues 2880

Advances 2066

Declines 730

U/c 84

NH 29

NL 44

T/vol(bn) 3•8

-------------

DJ +254 (38240)

SP +43 (5011)

NS +173 (17,211)

R2 +10 (1264)

WTI $83

10ytb 4•612%

-----------

MSCI(W) +26 (3289)

Gold Bugs -11 (252)

----------------

Latest :- Vix 17. Brent $87.

Gold $2308. Copper $4•431.

Palm $1030. Silver $26•990.

$1•235. €1•259.

FF +43. DF +2.

Morning all.

Asia is mostly higher this morning as easing ME tensions lifted mrkt sentiment. Iran saying they had no intention of responding to the latest strike from Israel bouyed mrkt participants.

In Japan investors went bargain hunting snapping a 4 day 5% losing streak as the 225 moved above the 37,300 level. At the mid'day break the 225 was up 250 with exporters, financials and motors leading advances. Gains were trimmed going into the close.

Elsewhere Hong Kong and Singapore were the bigest winnerss though Shanghai blue chips edged lower in their first chance to react to new Govt measures on Friday at promoting overseas investment in China's tech sector.

However an oversupplied stagnant property sector is a constant drag on mrkts. On a y-o-y basis house prices fell 1•5% the bigest decline in 13 months (59 cities reported price falls) and sales by floor area tanked 20% in first 2 months of this year. State banks have been ordered to boost lending for residential projects.

In Sydney investors sought oversold stocks which had suffered a 7 day sell off as miners, techs and financials were pushed higher. Gold retreated from its all-time high of c.$2400 (June futures $2410) and profit taking has sent the price down to $2364 this morning. Brent futures were off 50c to $86 a barrel due to a rise in US stockpiles.

Latest :- Vix 19. Brent $86.

Gold $2364. Copper $4•510.

Palm $1010. Silver $28•010.

$1•238. €1•161. 10ytb 4•657%

FF +62. DF +96.

Morning all.

Yesterday a large diversion of opinion occured in stocks. While the Dow pushed ahead 211 with 21/30 posting gains led by Amex and Coca Cola. The 500 fell for the 6th day in a row losing 232 points to close below 5000. Gold the safe haven play in times of turmoil closed at $2391. Most analysts see further upside should the ME descend into all out war.

Nsdq stocks tumbled near 400 points dragged down by Nvida falling 10% to $762 after Super Micro Computer slumped 23% to $710 due to no pre announcement of earnings considered a negative by investors of bad news ahead.

A raft of mega cap stocks will report earnings next week starting with bellwether stocks Tesla, Google & Meta, followed by Apple & Amazon the following week. Around 300 of the S&P will report Q1 nos fully expected to be c.9% ahead of last year. Currently the S&P p/er trades well above the long'term average of 16x at around 20x annual earnings leaving little room for disappointment.

Nyse data

--------

Issues 2892

Advances 1908

Declines 892

U/c 92

NH 13

NL 39

T/vol(bn) 3•9

-------------

DJ +211 (37,986)

SP -43 (4967)

NS -356 (17,038)

R2 +11 (1254)

WTI $83

10ytb 4•626%

-----------

MSCI(W) -24 (3256)

Gold Bugs +3 (263)

---------------

Close :- Vix 19. Brent $87.

Gold $2391. Copper $4•493.

Palm $1030. Silver $28•475.

$1•237. €1•161.

Yen 154. Yuan 7•24.

FF +29. DF -4

Morning all.

MSi data week 16.

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Vols and deals fell for the 2nd week as the shares tread water. They seem to be climbing a wall of worry despite the UK mrkt posting a small ytd gain and growth revised upwards for '24 & '25 MSi is down 6%. I fully expect MSi to outperform in H2.

Sp 820-840

L/y 520

H 935

L 443

7/88 113

-------

Trds 49

T/vols 32,200

Buys 13,800

Sells 18,400

Sell% 57

Av trd 657

Av £ trd 4990

-----------

Morning all.

DJ +22 (37,775)

SP -11 (5011)

NS -99 (17,394)

R2 +1 (1243)

WTI $89

10 y/tb 4•563%

------------

MSCI(W) -1 (3280)

Gold Bugs +1 (260)

---------------

Latest :- Vix 18. Brent $89.

Gold $2381. Copper $4•420.

Palm $1030. Silver $28•340.

$1•242. €1•167.

FF -81. DF -270.

-------------

Nyse data

Issues 2898

Advances 1362

Declines 1423

U/c 113

NH 12

NL 58

T/vol(bn) 3•6

------------

Stocks across the Far East are at their lows for the session led by Tokyo where the 225 slumped over 1000 points on Middle East tensions in the main. Investors withdrew to the sidelines selling into recent mrkt strength.

On Wall stocks were muted on the session with no overall bias, though Dow Futures point to a significant fall later today calling the Dow off 250 points as oil prices spike. While corporate earnings continue to surprise and the economy performing well with inflation cooling, rate cuts are on the back burner for now with some analysts saying no cuts till Q1 2025.

Morning all.

Nyse data

--------

Issues 2880

Advances 1356

Declines 1433

U/c 91

NH 12

NL 62

T/vol(bn) 3•6

-------------

Latest :- Vix 18. Brent $88.

Gold $2376. Copper $4•362.

Palm $1040. Silver $28•465.

$1•247. €1•167.

FF +33. DF +118.

------------

Losses among techs sent Wall lower yesterday the 500 fell to its 4th straight loss since setting a record 52wk high of (39,889). The weakness in tech (Nvidia down $34) overshadowed better nos from United Airlines ($48) which soared 17% as business fliers returned in force. Revs topped estimates but the company posted a 15c per share Q loss, much better than forecasts.

Other stocks of note included Travellers ($205) slumping 7% after the insurers Q nos fell short of estimates due to higher catastrophe costs.

Donald Trump's social media company fared better for a change gaining 16% yesterday as the stock continues to swing wildly in frenzied investor trading. The stock fell 14% on Mon and 18% on Tuesday. At the IPO the shares soared to $79 valuing the company at over $6bn. Current price $26.

Losses in the bond market and easing oil prices lessened investor worries about inflation as the 10ytb eased to 4•58%. Gold prices trod water as investors ponder the next flare up in the ME. As bar and coin demand surge in part due to "buy your Gold" at Cost Co, Citigroup is calling gold at $3000 by 2025.

Morning all.

Be interesting to see how Severfield performs in the next few days!

Almost at your buy in price scoredagainsteps! Bet you didn't think it was coming round so quickly.

I have added a few. On a p/e in the low single figures it would be silly not to given my time frame is longer than a nanosecond.

DJ +63 (37,799)

SP -10 (5051)

NS +7 (17,714)

R2 -7 (1251)

WTI $85

10ytb 4•671%

-----------

MSCI(W) -21 (3297)

Gold Bugs -4 (256)

---------------

Latest :- Vix 18. Brent $90.

Gold $2381. Copper $4•300.

Palm $1040. Silver $28•225.

$1•243. €1•170.

FF +24. DF +50.

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Nyse data

Issues 2894

Advances 999

Declines 1801

U/c 94

NH 9

NL 118

T/vol(bn) 4•0

------------

Morning all.

Outbloodystanding!!

It's a sea of red nos across Asia this morning following the broad sell off on Wall overnight as bond yields spiked after a report showed much stronger than expected US sales growth in March.

CMEGroup's FedWatch Tool indicates a 22% chance of a 25bp rate cut in June.

Wall stocks moved substantially lower throughout the day after the steep drop on Friday. Big tech led the mrkt drops as Apple & Microsoft were sold off while Goldman, Intel and United Health led the top 30 risers board.

The DJIA fell for its 6th straight day erasing most of its 2024 gains and the 500 lost 62 points to close just above 5050 level. Finally Wall's fear index ended at its highest since the bull mrkt began in Oct '23.

Nyse data

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Issues 2896

Advances 454

Declines 2400

U/c 42

NH 20

NL 89

T/vol(bn) 3•95

-------------

DJ -248 (37,735)

SP -62 (5062)

NS -297 (17,707)

R2-11 (1259)

WTI $86

10ytb 4•616%

-----------

MSCI(W) -33 (3318)

Gold Bugs -4 (259)

----------------

Latest :- Vix 19. Brent $91p.

Gold $2386. Copper $4•351.

Palm $1050. Silver $28•975.

$1•243. €1•171.

FF -80. DF -30.

Morning all.