Round up to wk 16.21 Apr 2018 06:45
First of all lets get one thing straight. Pride of place today, this week, this month goes to G! This vindicates what a few of us have been saying for sometime. Whether your a 600 joiner or a 58p joiner value will out in the end or at least revert to rhe mean, so far so good! Back in March G traded at (133) yet days later the stock started motoring up and nobody but nobody saw that coming. Closing at 214 this wk G has jumped 46 this month & 106 ytd (+98%) - a £296m increase in value. Welcome as this was with the concurrent rise in oil there are negatives in the background....aint there always? The Saudi call for $100 oil could be counter productive in a few ways. Here's a few. First off, a resurgence of the boom and bust era of the 70's & later crises. Second the current old pals act between OPEC & Russia could quickly unravell as producers race to pump and flood the mrkt with $80+ oil. Thirdly a high oil price will add to inflationary pressures. None of those singly should impact on G as long as $oil is 70 or above. Should it stay and Russia needs a high and steady $ oil to mend its rickety finances in the face of the West's economic sanctions...well fine, all will be well. They of course hold the whip hand in gas supply to Europe but the risks are there for G to be muscelling into. Nobody wants Russia to use this as a bargaining chip to gain favours. Perhaps thats aways for now..... Asia closed Friday down across mrkts mainly on chip makers downbeat prospects. Taiwan semi conductor expects sales to be below analysts forecasts by 10% in the high end smart phone sector, this started a tech sell off across Asia. Samsung dropped 2% in sympathy as did other Asian techs. Tokyo ended the week as lone gainer (+383), HK (-381) & SSE (-90). The US 10 yr t/bill pushed above 2.9% (not good for equities) and oil futures were flat ahead of the OPEC meeting were other considerations. In London wk16 ended with good gains for the 4th day running, ftse up 39 (7368), A/S +20 (4062), 250 +74 (20221) & Aim gained 1 (1034). N.Y opened sharply lower the Dow off 200 & 3rd straight day loss, the S&P (-23) below its 50DMA (2687) prompted some selling before the wk/end. Techs, Apple being main faller off $6 (-4%) dragged the Nsdq down 92 (7146) but still 3.5% up ytd. The Dow closed 210 lower (24463) a 1% loss ytd the S&P u/c ytd. The nos: Oil $73.71 - Gold $1336 - Vix 16.9 - £$ 1.400 - £€ 1.140 - Bcon $8281. Have a good wk/end all.
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