Member Info for JohnLewis79

I wish I could remember the details of Gs IPO prospectus. I'm sure it was massively bullish! From memory it traded higher initially but soon headed south whereupon I picked it up around 650 and we know where it went from there. Have to say the lead banks sold a pup to investors (they are not noted for giving investors an even break)....which is fair enough they were maximising the spoils and did an outstanding job. But that valuation has proven wildly optimistic in the subsequent years, though holders took their money and ran leaving pis to pick up the pieces and a succession of black swan events did the rest tanking G into the 90% club of waifs, strays & the dogs of Aim. That was a salutary lesson for holders or those souls left holding worthless pieces of paper. Hindsight is great is it not but beware foresight its got me into a load of trouble over the years.

I guess so...but who invests in shares to make money on currency swings? As a by product perhaps if it goes your way a kinda unexpected bonus if you will. When G converts their $ earnings a lower pound will be a boost to our £ revenues, eps, pts etc.. and that's out of our control.

Make an offer they cannot refuse! Unlikely I know as at this level I cannot see bids much higher than current +30%. That wouldn't interest most pis or iis for that matter so its catch 22, suffer this low valuation with little prospects of a bid (your take) and zero interest on the sums invested. That has been a double whammy of a poor investment. They must have plans for G to realise a value nearer the fundamentals....mus'nt they? In these mrkts nobody is going to pay top $ especially if were in for a prolonged period of jittery mrkts and an OP that knows not what to do ($75.97) down again.

So EV = Mrkt Cap £563m or current sp.

Fraid this year ocelot. I doubt you will ever see 600 as chances of G remaining single are pretty slim imo.

Yup but what's the debt position and how much cash? Think my nos were on Y/E 2017.

Ftse heading 90 down, OP $76.11 oilies suffering, sentiment poor with RBS 3Q nos getting the thumbs down.....

Ocelot your G end yr forecast was 600.

G EV £638m / Mrkt Cap £580m. Gkp EV £431m / Mrkt Cap £507m G EV sp = 227 Gkp EV sp = 188 Wouldn't swear to those nos as am unsure how cash and debt are realised? Lem do you have the EV nos?

Iffy start in London expected first thing, off c.50 on back of poor Asia trading and 200+ fall on the Dow later today. Both futures have been improving during the last hour so fingers crossed opening falls will be small.

US stocks staged a broad rally on Thursday after the pummelling on Wed. However nobody is saying mrkts are set fair for a late rally to the year, far too volatile to make any predictions. Indeed some point to further losses for the S&P owing to Central Banks tightening credit and rapidly evaporating liquidity as the main cause. Analysts at Morgan Stanley say the US mrkts are in a 'rolling' bear phase and more pain is to come. They see the 500 hitting 2400 at worst by year end, that's 985 lower Near 2% rises on the Dow (+401) the 500 (+49) & 3% on the Nsdq (+210) may not be sustainable. Helped by the rally on Wall London stocks pulled off 60 lows on the 100 to close 41 better just above 7000. Sterling came off closing at $1.2812. Lloyds was a bright spot on good Q3 nos putting on 2% to 58 while WPP plunged 13% on poor outlook. The All & 250 were up the S/caps and Aim lower. Asia has not followed the bounce in US stocks, mid session TK is off 143, HK down 350 & SH 15 lower as buyers notice Dow futures in a spin traders are loathe to open new positions ahead of the wk end. The nos: Oil $76.39. Gold $1235. £$ 1.281. £€ 1.127.. Coin $6424. Vix 24. FF -80 & DF -320. Morning all.

Oh yes! Very happy to see that klassic but I'm a life long supporter of the other Cardiff club, the Arms Park one!.... since the days of Cliff Morgan, Rex Willis Barry & Gar. Shame the Blues have struggled ever since. I blame that on the dumping of the iconic Cardiff Arms Park stadium name. To me it's always been the Arms Park and ever will be....jeez I have no idea what its called now....does any Welshman?

A bullish post to end the day H and good golly molly, G finished blue. Lets hope the Oct wobbles are over and a quiet run up to Christmas with no shocks on the cards.

COV...Strongly and well put. These aint no victimless crimes as some would have us believe. I'd rather be mugged (I have been/ they got ***k all) than lose my savings to the LSE sharks and neer'do wells of the backwaters of AIM and the like. I doubt there is an investor that has not had a bad experience or one that was highly dubious as opposed to just picking the wrong stock. If thats the price you pay for an investment in London, well stuff it. Who knows back in the day it may have been very much the same only a gentlemens club to which few were admitted and where wink wink I'll see you right was the tip of the day. I used to think the very best advice I could give to a novice investor was never ever borrow to invest in shares and only invest in Cos you understand. Over the years that has not changed but whatever you do hold for the long term, the very long term in stocks that have a durable competitive advantage with trustworthy management that you trust and perhaps above all that puts the needs off holders above its own. There will be others but start with those and you will have a fighting chance.

Cm'on H your turn. Impart us with some down to earth plainspeak of how you see the mrkt and G in particular. Is this our June '44 fight back that ultimately led to VE day and 74 years of peace or are we to be stranded on the bloody sands of Kurdistan?

Right on cue the Dow bounces back as if nothing in the world has happened these last few days. I mean manipulated or not for chrisssakes? Take it as it comes, ignore the macro/micro just play the nos..Call them right, cash in and move on. Investors asleep in their beds shall think themselves blessed they were not here and hold their shares fast while the barrow boys lie dying on St Crispins day....oh yea......oh yea! Arise ye Welshman... ye of the long bows, the victors of Agincourt take heart that the poor and down trodden of London mrkts will rise again in your shadow and hold forth valuable paper to be recompensed to their true value as is their due. Cymru am byth! May England always be there to back us up.

Spot on comeonvog. We are left.... We'll..how about proven resources for starters? Are they a waste of time and money if Co's go to the expense of certifying oil in place etc...and the mrkt ignores the data? Ffs why bother? They are not interested. They (the mrkt) could be right, but what are investors expected to make of said results? Do we think the experts are spinning us a line..(wouldn't be the first time) or should we take on trust the nos are kosher, neither under or over reported? Sad to say 100% of pis wouldn't have a scoobie do. Most of us being trusting souls would go along with the CPR reports...hell do we have much choice in making a reasonable judgement whether to buy or sell? I don't think so as these are 'written in stone' so to speak. Therein lies massive scope for 'massaging' the figs not unknown in prev Co's who eventually come a cropper....well after investors have been wiped out. Unfortunately that's the nature of the beast in the Klondike expo area of oil where only 2/10 drills find the black stuff and we tell you what you want to know....nudge nudge. So there we are...we all know the risks but imo the buy and hold strategy went the way of triceptosorus. Now it's kill or be killed and more's the pity, for what have we been left with?..... A once 'noble" profession hijacked by short terminism, shorter gangs, insider dealings, little regulation, zero compensation for investors (idiots) and the opaque dark web where all the right deals are done. What choice do we have, If it's leaving companies little choice but to feed the mrkt the drug they require? I'd say the future is bleak for the small investor, already punting on football as the most visible and reliable route for their money and even that has been the subject of match fixing. Is there nothing sacred whereby a punter can get an even break? Where an investor can sleep at night without worrying he's been ripped off by the sharks and crims of this world?

Nothing changes in my stock picking... i buy and as if pre ordained down it goes...jeez will I ever learn? I'm in for the next day or so before the barrow boys shake me out..

Eff it 209.50.

Yup boyo, that's the sort of % premium to current say c.300 I'm working on. That's a long way from the 4-500 i once hoped for. So do i buy for a 30% gain, which looks more likely than a 30% fall? That looks a no brainer. I'm kinda ambivalent on say making £500+.....if things work out in a stock i know to be unreliable. Thing is what is reliable in these mrkts? Guess I better just get on with it and hope I make a few quid. Very unlike me dithering over a couple of K investment....sign of the times, confidence shattered etc...heh ho.