Member Info for JohnLewis79

Right on cue the Dow gave back recent gains and then some, slumping 539 on Friday for a 1150 (4.5%) losing week, the 500 lost 127 (4.6%) & Ndsq 362 (5%). This takes the Dow into neg for the year off near 1.5% same for the 500 though the techs are just positive. Usual concerns plus an uninspiring jobs report dragged mrkts lower. Among the 30 (all lower) Caterpillr was the worst performer off 9%, best of the worst J&J down 1%. On the 500 SVB financial slid 19% while the worst on Nsdq was American Airlines off 16%. London fared better (helped by Oil cuts) on Fri posting gains across the 5 main sectors but not enough to erase losses on the wk. The 100 fell 216 (3%) the All off 119 (3%) & the 250 down 648 (3.50%). All 5 sectors neg for the year the 100 (c.12%) the All (13.5%), 250 (14%) & All Aim the best performer in the good times now the worst (14.5%). Far Eastern bourses 2/3 gained on Friday but lower on wk and ytd. The Nikkei 3% & 5% respectively. HK 2% & 13% and SH +1% & -21%. The nos: Oil $ 61.40 up 3% on wk down 7.5% ytd. Gold $ 1254 (+2% & -6%), £$ 1.273. £€ 1.117. Coin $ 3416 (-12% & -76%). Vix 23. $Y 6.874. MSCI 474. 350 OG 8623 (-1% & -4%). G on 5 day & ytd. -1.7% & +74%. Gkp +2.3% & +76%. DNO +3% & +56%. Morning all.

Called 120 better at open but lots to catch up on and the Dow is expected to pare back the gains after yesterdays big dipper ride which might limit London. Oil off a touch -1.3% (15% down 1 month). 😰😰😰

G holders equity is 451pps some 2.5x current sp so a huge margin of safety even for cautious investors if that's the kinda thing your looking for? But as we know the mrkt in these chaotic times is not looking at the fundamentals of G and likely many others. They will always find a negative to focus on and therein lies opportunity for the brave investor. If you bght up in the 250s and little has changed since, ok the OP is off the $70 we have been used to, why not at 175? I know I would if I had spare. For sure lths will want the OP back towards $70 as soon as but G is profitable at $50 oil....given our current balance sheet and ability to drastically cut capex if needed. As H reminds us "the reasons to be" are many. All the bod need to do is convince the other buggers.

Yikes!...equities knocked out of the park plunging over 200 the worst days trading nos since goodness knows when?...Now bang in correction territory the 100 off 12% since May and c.13% down ytd. The writing has been on the cards the trend apparant for months, so no-one should be that surprised that a clear out is now in play. The arrest of the Huwaei CFO a distraction imo or perhaps a last straw...who knows. There's enough dark clouds encircling mrkts without the arrest of a CFO to upset equities to this extent, though the fall out vis a vis China trade might take on more significance. London fell from the bell, the ftse off 100 by 9.00am after a poor performance in the Asia mrkts which fell c.2% across the region and London needed no nudging to head rapidly south. Stocks in focus were TCG off a couple at 32, Just Eat a pis fave fell 20 to 544 and GVC smashed by sellers down 40 to 682 in tandem with PP Betfair off 195 to 6570. Mrkts have made an about turn since the days of QE, cheap money, low rates, low inflation and a stable political backdrop. Now facing rates on the up credit spreads widening, asset classes losing money, Trump tweeting, sentiment worsening and trade...well nobody knows.... whatever it aint an ideal backdrop for equities faced with a Govt in chaos. As London closed the Dow was off 450+ and the ftse pulled up 218 down at (6704), the 250 fell 518 to (17753) the All off 116 at (3674). You have to go back to 8/2015 to find falls as bad as today. If the Street pulls out of its bluefunk dive we will have a smart recovery in London. Dow futures were not wrong the 30 tanked 400 at the bell all 30 of the constituents in the red led down by the usual suspects, Boeing, Apple & United Health. These 3 stocks accounted for over 125 of the Dow fall leaving the 30 down 1.5% ytd. At the low today the Dow was off 785 on oil price weakness, trade concerns & arrest of Huawei CFO....which yesterday triggered circuit breakers on the S& P 500 futures exch to avoid even worse losses. But what happened next was remarkable & unexpected turn around in mrkt fortunes. At 11.30 the mrkt headed upwards through the rest of the session not on a Eureka! moment, but little more than the WSJ hinting the Fed may not raise rates in Dec. On such flimsy news are mrkts rebounds based these days. Big board stocks were still lower, Boeing, Apple, JPMC, Exxon & Chevron all c.1-3%. At close the 500 was off 4 (3674), the Nsdq was 29 to the good (7188) & Mr.Jones off 79 (24947). Dow futures are calling a weak open for the Dow. Far Eastern mrkts opened c.3% lower on Huwaei news but have all recovered their poise after the stunning fight back in NY. TK is up 100, HK up 75, SH level on the day, S.Korea +5 and Pan Pacifics gaining. The nos: Oil $ 59.57. Gold $1246. £$ 1.277. £€ 1.122. Coin $ 3327. Vix 21. $Y 6.87. MSCI 479. 350 OG 8393 (-400). FF +125 & DF -80. Morning all.

It's just a snapshot in time guys...you know that all could change tomorrow or next week? Seems crazy imo just wish I had 'spare' to invest at this level. Always the way with my investment strategy...mostly I front of the sp. Hydrogen...I feel your pain, your blog like many others states what most of us feel. Regrettably unless your in a position to take advantage of the 2-3 for one so best say nowt. With world mrkts in a fine old tizzy and heh ..not as if we didn't suspect this was on the cards..... just gotta sit it out, though the best place to be is out of these crazy mrkts which could get a whole lot worse. Good luck those who have a portfolio of UK shares....I hope your taking the long term view.

Dow futures aint helping and oil off 3% so a good oppo to shake out the day men! Most oils being hit so nothing G specific not that's any consolation. But if your a buyer you can thank Me Mrkt for being in one of his pessimistic moods. Ya gotta believe though!

The more I read and hear..."she must go"....the more she hangs around. Having done her level best to frustrate the wishes of the electorate for a clean break (what I voted for) she's now trying to sell the bad deal as better than no deal or rather this bad withdrawal deal. Westminster, the city & civil servants have muddied the waters enough to call into question the democratic voice of the populace..... the 17.4m that voted leave. That..... threatens the fall of this Govt leaving us with Corbin a most unsuitable candidate for Prime Minister.

Boyo, I like your posts on the performance of Gs sp relative to DNO/Gkp/OP & big oil. Cant say i follow your reasoning 100% as i incline more to the random walk theory for share prices....its easier as i dont have to tax my brain.... (an sp's gotta do what a sp's gotta do) covers it for me. Not sure in the grand scheme of o...lies it means anything but for sure an interesting exercise. Let us know when you have cracked the code!

Confusion and uncertainty over Brexit and the 3 votes humiliating defeat of the Govt kept mrkts on the back foot the ftse slumping 90 lower at open and sterling weakened to $1.27. Economic news was thin the services sectors growth of just 0.05% was the lowest in two years. On Co news Ryan Air faces legal action over failure to compensate passengers though this did not dissuade invstrs pushing the share higher. The FCA is being taken to court over the mishandling of the RBS investigation into its small firm customers potentially re opening the saga of the 2007/8 slump from which RBS has set aside £400m. Shares put on 5 to 222. The 100....fell 100 (6922) and has always bounced back above the 7000, not this time. The 250 lost 58 (18271) the All down 47 (3790) and small falls among the s/caps & Aim. On Co news banks HSBC -15, oils (BP -10 & RDSB -51) and miners were lower. One bright spot was the 51% jump in TCG share price (+12 to 34) on Director buying, bottom fishers and being oversold. US mrkts were closed. In Asia stocks were battered by the news that Huawei CFO had been arrested by Canadian authorities for violating US trade sanctions with Iran (not specified) and faces possible extradition to the US. Huawei has been under investigation for sometime. China is likely to retaliate as Huawei is one of their pet companies. Dow futures tumbled as much as 380 on the news thinking this could derail trade talks. If it aint one thing?.... Shares across the region slumped led down by techs. The Nikkei off 580 Nintendo & Soft Bank the big fallers. HK down 702 (Tencent -4%, AAC and Sunny Optical both - 5%) and SH(comp) fell 34 with the Shenzen off c.1.5%. The nos: Oil $61.05. Gold $1245. £$ 1.272. £€ 1.22. Coin $ 3686. Vix 21. $Y 6.878. MSCI 483. 350 OG 8791 (-157). FF -92 & DF -340. Morning all.

The Govt went 3 for 3 last night getting turned over on the contempt advice from the AG, the Grieve proposal that MPs have a direct say in what happens next if Teachers deal gets thrown out next Tuesday was passed and a procedural vote lost. Not the best of days for the PM her efforts to persuade are falling on deaf ears as the chaotic Brexit shambles continues.

As if "Tariff man" Trump wasn't enough, another concern for investors is the yield on the 5 yr T/Bill note has fallen below that of the 2 year note, a move that suggests investors are fearful about the economy's longer term health. When long term yield fall below the shorter one it could be signalling a recession ahead. Add that to all the other well known red flags its no wonder mrkts are like jumping jack flash...its a crash crash, crash!

A bright start soon fizzled out and by 9.00am the ftse was heading south never to recover. Some good news on Brexit (we can back out?) and the construction PMI indicating activity expansion counted for little. Consumer spending data in Nov showed a poor 0.05% increase in growth leading to worries over the Xmas spend by hard pressed consumers facing rises in general living costs. Stocks in the news, TCG (22.7) had another bad day falling 4% uninvestable according to one broker and Ted "Hugger" Baker tanked 130 or (8%) on cont fallout from the bad news surrounding the Co and GVC fell 48 (6%) to 729. GVC was over 1000 when it purchased Sads/Coral bookies. I bought Sads when they lost their Casino gaming licences sub 40 and made money... in time, as they went on to become the premier bookmaker until losing their way a few years ago by purchasing Coral in a ******* contest with W.Hill. Miners rallied somewhat Fresnillo getting back yesterdays losses added 7 and Randgold jumped 192 or 3%. Fallers outnumbered buyers by 2:1 the ftse ending down 40 (7023) and the 250 was in the red all session closing down 234 at (18330). Small losses in the All, S/caps & Aim ended a nothing day with the Street off 300 after London closed. The DAX down 130 & CAC fell 41. In NY volatility & unpredictability is back with a vengeance any trend be it up or down is soon reversed, yesterdays 288 gain lost by mid session where the 30 lost 200 in c.20 mins. Losses were widespread across the big board, the 500, techs and small caps, it's as if the G20 temporary accord between Trump and XI never happened. All indices headed south from the bell the big caps bearing the brunt of selling, Apple, JPMC, Boeing, Du Pont, Amex all near 5% & Caterpillar 7%. It was 'throw in the towel' Tuesday investors rushing for the exits ahead of mrkts closing today for G.Bush memorial day. The Dow tumbled 800 (25027) the 500 fell 90 (2700) & Nsdq pulled up down 283 (7158). Little reaction to the blood spilling in NY, Asian mrkts are trading flat. HK the loser off 420 (1.5%) led by Tencent down 2%, component firms for smart phones and HSBC off 2%. The Nikkei is down just 165 led lower by financials, insurers and autos. SH is dead flat no reaction to the XI / Trump accord off 6 points. Samsung led S.Korea down by 1.6%. The nos: Oil $ 60.92. Gold $1240. £$ 1.269. £€ 1.121. Coin $ 3821. Vix 21. $Y 6.86. MSCI 485. FF-70. DF +53. Morning all.

I've always felt the mrkts act against me, now you may say that's ridiculous and illogical and you might be right but nevertheless over the years thats my abiding feeling....the breaks go against me. Perhaps I choose the wrong stocks or risky sectors either way it's either the mm's or events that conspire agin me. Or it could simply be me expecting the mrkts to think & act like me? They rarely do. Have things changed so much in equities since the 80's? I don't remember being so frustrated about stocks back then. I guess life was a lot slower, no instant access to prices or Co news and certainly no BBs and what's more important I trusted the mrkts to act above board and in shareholders / my interests. I cannot say that today. These days a long term hold is a spec gone wrong where investors seek quick returns relying on charts and other strategies and to he'll with the nos....no-one bothers with them nowdays, P/er's, p/tbk, P/ts, return on cap etc....that's for the birds. I should have seen the change and the new rules of investment a long time ago but I was too set in my ways so despite my general hissedoffedness I accept the fault is entirely mine.

Oct avp for the OP was $81 the highest of ytd. The 10 mtd average is $73.

Workover you obviously know a lot more about Faroe than myself, so I won't debate the points you raised. All I was trying to say I though 160 was towards the upper end of any DNO bid, we shall have to see when and if. You mention their huge inventory of North Sea assets which I suppose you think will be a boost to the sp but remember G has 13tcf of gas worth c.$1.5bn not realised in the sp. Will it in Faroes case? Perhaps it already is? Anyways just my opinion even if gibberish! Good luck anyways.

The ftse took off up 150 at best following gains in the East, miners led the mrkt, Anglo, BHP & Fresnillo all c.5%. Going south were Royal Mail, Voda, BT & TW the only ftse shares in the red. By mid morning 11 stocks were losing led by Easy Jet, IAG and a couple of house builders. Once again Brexit and the backstop legal advice is dampening investors enthusiasm. TCG is being hammered by shorters down a whopping 20% mid morning and closed down 6 to 23.6. Glaxo fell on news of its purchase of cancer drug Co Tesaro for $5.1bn shares tanked 7%. By close the nos were well off their best, the 100 up 82 (7062) the 250 added 83 (18563). Look for a lower start this morning. In NY the Dow opened with a bang over 440, the 500 +40 both at significant crossing points, 26000 & 2800 following Trump & XI agreeing to hold off on tariffs for 90 days. Trump "tweeted" China will reduce & remove the 40% tariffs on US autos....yet to be confirmed by XI. In response Beijing reported China will buy a ' very substantial' amount of US agriculture, energy & industrial goods. The spike upwards could never be sustained & by 11.00am 200 had been wiped off as sellers piled in. Autos were in demand, FMC, GM & Daimler all c.3%+ & techs had a good day, Amazon up 5%, Apple up 3% & Netflix 4%. Oils were better, Exxon up 2%. Mrkts calmed after mid session and tracked sideways in a narrow band till close the Dow ending up 288 (25826),156 off best, the 500 added 30 (2790) & Nsdq put on 111 (7442). Dow looks shaky on futures at open. In Asia, Japan led the region lower the Nikkei off c.500 after 7 straight session gains, hit by steel makers. HK down 176 (0.67%) lower on property, financials and energy. In SH mrkts are calm with no change seen. The nos: Oil $ 62.11. Gold $1243. £$ 1.274. &€ 1.120. Coin $ 3771. Vix 16. $Y 6.842. MSCI 497. FF -40 & DF -228. Morning all.

Faroe off 3 today (157) is still above the all cash offer of 152. The mrkt thinks DNO will have to return with a higher perhaps knockout price c 160-170. On the nos that's a pretty fair offer (£634m) for a loss making oiler which has only once made a profit in the last 5 years and if DNO are intent on spreading their risk away from Kurdistan /Iraq influences. If I was invested here I would def have sold at 160ish and moved into G on Thrs/Friday. Faroe is at a healthy premium of 52 on the 105 sp at time of bid. I don't think DNO will be making any rash moves for I cannot see a time scale for the bid to go unconditional so a higher offer is on the cards.

Up 5% to 180p...mrkt cap £1.944bn.

60p of net assets in Faroe will cost you 160pps, in G 448p of net assets will cost you 204p. So one can get 7x Faroes nav for just 1.3x Faroes sp. Heh ho....

203.50 paid.