Mrkts...29 Nov 2018 05:52
London had to cope with the doom laden BOE report (worst case scenario) on a no deal Brexit or project 'hysteria' according to the Brexiteers.
The Bank are forecasting int rates hitting 5-6%, house prices tumbling 30%, economy shrinking by 8%, inflation at 6.5% and the £$ at 1:1.
Well did not the BOE forecast armageddon if we voted leave? Did not happen. In fact almost the opposite.
Shares were quiet in very cautious trading the ftse off 12 (7005) and the 250 down 21 (18640). Bulls of the 100 need to see 7060 to confirm a changing pattern, bears see 6980 as the next step down.
The bank stress tests (7) threw up no surprises, all passing with flying colours, none need to strengthen their balance sheets in face of an economic shock. Their report ran to c.800 pages!
Travel and house builders (3/5 Top fallers) fared badly while oils were flat. Cluff Oil stood out with a 24% rise to 2.76 on a tie up with a major. UK car production fell again. London failed to join in the rush upwards in the US so expect a bounce of sorts today.
In NY the Dow traded sideways until midday when the mrkt shot up 250+ on news of Powells dovish stance on rates (fewer rises needed/much to like about the strength of the US economy) & rates at c.the right level.
The Dow powered higher over 400 by 2.00pm. Risers Inc Boeing, Msoft, Caterpillar, Nike all 3% plus and oils up 2%.
Retailers did well, Amazon added 3% saying Black Monday saw the highest ever one day sales in Co history. Amazon capturing 24% of the on line sales, Best Buy a distant second on 7%. Love 'em or loathe 'em they are buying up as much storage space as available in the UK.
US GDP at 3.5% annualised in Q3 (expected). However new home sales fell 544k and advanced goods trade deficit grew to $77.2bn ($76.3bn).
The Dow closed the session at 25366 up 618 for a 3 day jump of 1080, the Nsdq + 209 & 500 gained 62.
In Asia trading is quiet (local factors) and cautious ahead of G20. Nikkei is up 153 for the 5th straight session boosted by energy and techs though autos fear the fallout from GMs restructuring / factory closures will impact car production in Japan & Korea.
HK is off 6 led down by Tencent & properties while SH is flat bouncing above and below the gain line with vols well down.
The nos: Oil $59.39. Gold $1231.
£$ 1.285 £€ 1.127. Coin $ 4180.
$Y 6.937. MSCI 490. Vix 18.
FF +33. DF -66. 350 OG -13 (8693)
Morning all.