Member Info for JohnLewis79

Yesterday Wall initially fell to the days low of 48,377 down 687 as investors reacted to Trump's attack on Iran. At mid'day the Dow had recovered its poise to trade 60 better on hopes the war will not last more than a month at most. When asked Trump refused to rule out boots on the ground if the going got tougher. On hearing this jittery investors sold into the small gains and by late afternoon the Dow was off 135.

Sectors worst hit were Airlines (Delta $64 & United $103) and Cruise lines. Several oil and gas facilities in Saudi stopped production which pushed prices up over 8% as investors flocked to safe havens like the USD. If Iran does serious damage to neighbouring countries oil facilities, especially export terminals that are hard to repair and are within striking distance of Irans weapons systems, its estimated this could send oil prices over $130 a barrel.

To hire a super tanker to transport oil to China from the region costs between $100k & $200k a day and could go higher as the Straits of Hormuz is now closed to traffic sending costs soaring. Tankers will be re-routed via the Cape.

Defense stocks got a welcome boost. Lockheed Martin ($677) and RTX ($212) gaining 3% & 5% while Kratos ($91) & Aero Environment ($209) put on 5% & 17% respectively to top the gainers boards. However much of the current mrkt turmoil had been anticipated. Wall Street's fear gauge jumped to a 3 month high of 22 as all the major stocks on the 500 fell. On the Dow 12/30 closed better led by Nvidia, Chevron & Honeywell. Going south Home Depot, 3M & P&G.

A constant worry is the availability of missiles to bring down the hundreds of drones in Iran's arsenal. Western officials reckon Iran has over 2000 missiles capable of reaching Gulf nations. The UAE alone said by Monday evening it had been targeted by 174 Iranian ballistic missiles, 8 cruise missiles and 689 drones. Amazon reported that drone strikes had damaged 3 of its ME data centers.

Bahrain, Kuwait & Qatar also came under attack. Its thought only 44 missiles reached their targets. Six US service members are confirmed killed in action. Three US F15 jets crashed in a friendly fire incident, no casualties reported. The US state department urged Americans in more than a dozen countries to 'depart now.'

Crude price sensitive stocks like holiday companies Carnival ($29) and Norwegian ($22) fell 10% while Occident Petroleum ($54) & Conoco Oil ($116) benefitted from oil price rises. US gas prices which average around $3 a gallon are expected to rise as much as 30 cents a gallon next week.

Declining issues outpaced advances on the NYSE by 3:1 and by 2:1 on the Nsdq. The Dow ending 73 lower at 48,905. London's ftse tanked 130 to 10,780 and is called lower today. Stocks in Asia have slumped as investors cut and run. The Nikkei is down nearly 2000 points.

Latest :- Vix 20. Brent $80.

Gold $5309. Copper $5•989.

Palm $1032. Silver $85•875.

$1•338. €1•146. 10ytb 4•05%

FF -58.

We have had a welcome tick up on the shares this morning but are still way down on the high of early Jan (1560). Ways to go before poping the bolly!!

Thanks buffalobird that almost wipes out the free float!

Is our expertise in 'drones' boosting the shares this morning? Not sure but unlikely imo as Vshorad has been around for a few years now and are deployed as far as i know in the region already.

At the start of a new quarter MSi ranks no 459/563 in the All Share unofficial ranking list as of this morning. No change at the top headed by AZ & HSBC at £240 bn & £239 bn respectively. The list goes all the way down to Critical Metals valued at £11m.

Its worth noting on a global mrkt cap valuation AZ & HSBC would rank at nos 43 & 44. Nvidia leads the table valued at $4•306tn.

Predictably Asian stock mrkts are a sea of red as the outbreak of hostilities between the US & Iran gathers pace. Iran retaliated after attacks by the US military killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and over 40 of his top officials. Iran continued to strike out indiscriminately at countries across the Gulf region in an effort to provoke a widespread ME war.

Iran still believes it can survive a war but not a surrender and the Trump administration does not know how long it would take to cripple Irans many layers of authority embedded in Tehran. Iran's strategy is to inflict as much damage as possible on the US & global economies too make it too costly for Trump to even try and topple the Mullahs. This is proving a foolhardy strategy.

The US & Israel have no intention of backing down regardless of whether the war is legal or not. So far the Iranian people have cheered from the bleachers ignoring Trump's plees to rise up against the Govt. They rightly fear the Mullahs butchers would go on a killing spree against the defenceless civilian population.

Oil prices have put on c.6% this morning to c.$78 better than many feared but shipping costs have increased markedly. Around 1 in 5 global barrels of oil pass through the Straits. At present the Straits of Hormuz remain open but many shipping companies are diverting traffic away from the region worried Iran will attempt to scupper ships in the Straits.

In Japan stocks ended the morning session down over 900 points with weakness across all sectors. Autos, Techs and Banks were hardest hit. Losses of 5%-6% were seen in big caps Nomura, Tokyo Electric, Daiwa and Yokohama Rubber. In late trade the Nikkei is still down over 900. In economic news Japan's manufacturing sector continued to expand at a faster pace in February.

Elsewhere its mostly a down day for stocks though Shanghai is trading up 20 after tumbling 60 at opening. Hk off 400+ in early dealings heads towards the close down over 500. Most Pacifica mrkts are in the red as investors sit on the sidelines on a safety first policy. Asian mrkts will have closed by the time London opens.

Australia's ASX200 ended the day off only 2 points at 9201 boosted by energy and miners due to spiking energy and commodity prices. The ASX200 had been down over 100 in early trade. Talk of the Dow opening 1500 down today looks wide of the mark.

Latest :- Vix 20. Brent $78.

Gold $5374. Copper $6•052.

Palm $1020. Silver $94•330.

$1•342. €1•140. 10ytb 3•97%

FF -75. DF -545.

Morning all.

I agree WOE. Back in the day i always attended AGMs even going so far as Glenrothes in Scotland to attend an AGM. On that occasion the Chairman, MD, myself and one other were the only ones there!

The drawback is cost. Its not a cheap day out if your travelling from London. By the time you have paid for your return ticket, had food & drinks etc £200 will have disappeared if your having a few gin & tonics at British Rail prices!

I know its a one-off so I will make an effort to come up in early August all being well and the share price has appreciated enough for me to have a 'free day out.'

I expect the markets will take fright on Monday's opening. However its a known fact that wars have little impact on the ability of companies to earn money.

In 2003 (Iraq war) the S&P rose 26% in the first year while the Nikkei surged 50%.

In fact across 6 major conflicts from WW2 to Iraq & Afghanistan US stocks out performed their peacetime averages.

Perhaps the most well known crash 'Black Monday' of Oct'87 when the Dow sank 23% in a single day was the worst experience of my lifetime, as i had open positions with no ability to cut my trades as brokers fearing a wipe out left phones off the hook leaving frantic investors high' n dry unable to act.

By the time i managed to close the damage was done. I had to send a chunk of my savings to settle my account. I'm told many small brokers suffered horrendous losses as clients couldn't, wouldn't pay and had to close and seek restitution through the courts.

Mrkts recovered their losses within 2 years not that it did me any good as it took me over 5 years to start all over again. By that time 'big bang' had occurred and the advent of share dealing by phone was being used by most private investors to buy and sell stocks. No deals 'on tick' so to speak as monies are sent automatically for all buy trades. That would have saved me a whole world of pain years ago!

Q1 (wk 1-9)

---------

Sp up days 18

Down days 22

Total days 40

----------

Sp

1454-1211

Down 243p

Down 17%

--------

Ftse +10%

250 +6%

A/S +9%

Aim +7%

-------

DJ +2%

SP +0•5%

NS -1%

R2 +8%

------

TK +17%

HK +4%

SH +5%

SK +48%

TA +22%

AX +6%

--

Copr +6%

Gold +23%

Silver +33%

Oil +20%

Palm +4%

-------

It was a day of

records on global mrkts last week. In London the ftse and All Share hit all-time highs as did Tokyo, Shanghai and Sydney. However it was a different picture on Wall as stocks tumbled from the bell as hotter than expected inflation data wrong footed dealers.

Inflation and ME war concerns kept nervous investors on the sidelines awaiting Trump's response to the 3rd of talks in Geneva.

The US aircraft carrier Gerald R Ford has arrived in Israel forming a dual presence with the USS Abraham Lincoln. It's just been reported the US has launched an attack on Tehran.

The Dow had slumped over 700 by mid'day and the 500 is stumbling toward the end of what will be its second losing month in the last 10.

The losses came as investors decided to dump stocks in companies whose businesses they suspect could be supplanted by Ai powered competitors.

Trump has announced he will blacklist Anthropic over its refusal to allow unfettered access to its technology for military purposes. He said on his Truth Social platform that the "left wing nutjobs at Anthropic have made a disastrous mistake trying to strong arm the Dept of War."

The collapse of UK mortgage firm Market Financial Solutions revived credit market anxieties. Capable Ai tools that can replace humans could also replace entire companies or at the very least eat away at profit margins. The full horror of Ai capabilites is yet to be fully understood by investors.

The pain has also filtered out to private equity companies that have lent money to software firms which need to withstand the Ai threat and keep repaying debt. Blue Apollo Global and Ares Management sank c.8% for two of the bigest losses on the S&P 500. Many investors are beginning to ask "Is Ai turning out to be more trouble than its worth?"

On the big board 17 of the top 30 posted blue nos led by Merck, Walmart, UHG & Amgen. Topping the losers boards Goldman slumped $69 to $860 and Amex dived $23 to $312 joined by Nvidia, JPMC, Apple and Nike. Not all of the days action was negative. Dell Technologies ($148) soared 21% as the PC maker reported Q4 earnings and revenues that beat forecasts. Dell also raised its dividend by 20% and increased its buyback program.

Gold & Silver prices continue to surge, in particular Silver for the 10th straight month closing near $95. Gold at near $5300 is up 22% ytd. Some key economic data will be released next week. Including ISM manufacturing PMI nos, ADP non farm payrolls and US retail sales & US weekly jobless claims.

Close :- Vix 20. Brent $73.

Gold $5278. Copper $6•061.

Palm $1025. Silver $94•385.

Yen 155. Yuan 6•86.

$ 1•348. € 1•141.

Morning all.

Hi WOE i'll have to bow to your views from the coalface so to speak.....impressions after speaking with management are much more reliable than the guesswork from the

likes of myself. At least im savvy enough not to act on my biased view of management falling down on the job. Lets see who turns out to be right come the results in June.

Couldn't agree more! The time of doing as little as possible to keep the 'status quo' intact is over. Any ambitions for MSi to become a ftse 250 stock is rapidly diminishing. The board must bring in new blood with new ideas before its too late.

MSi down 16% year to date on the indifferent H/Y report and outlook for 2026/7. No longer considered a bull stock investors have sold up looking for the next go'go share.

Meanwhile long'term holders sit and await events to turn in the companies favour which would include getting a good price for the petrol stations, winning contracts from the US / Europe /Overseas and our MOD to reluctantly spend money on the defense of the realm.

Its very unlikely the board will ever consider leaving the safety of Aim which imo is a hindrance. Investors in Jet2 suffer the same problem of a board happy to be a big fish wallowing in a small pond and that has been holding the stock back.

I'm not jumping yet. But if the board won't act i will reconsider my position. Of course it might not be the panacea we expect but at least try and stop the drift.

Coming to the end of the trading day across Asia, mrkts are higher in upbeat trading. The Nikkei closed at a new all-time high of 58,850 some 17% up this year. As the bigest Asian exchange the 225 sets the tone for all of Asia.

HK which is still open has put on 260 near the close while Shanghai, Taiwan, Soeul and Sydney are all better. Sydney's ASX200 hit an all-time record close of 9199 as investors sought stocks in sectors outside of mining and tech.

Gold and Silver were flat as traders look to trim positions ahead of the weekend. Gold is trading around $5187 and Silver $91 has put on 28% this year.

Netflix dropped out of the fight to buy Warner Bros Discovery clearing the way for rival Paramount to clinch its $111bn deal for the historic Studio. Paramount the second oldest US film studio was founded in 1914 by Adolf Zukor who established the Hollywood "star system."

Netflix said the deal was no longer financially attractive and will continue to invest about $20bn this year on films, TV and other entertainment offerings. Flix shares closed up $9 at $92 on the news. Warner was little changed.

In other company news Twitter co founder Jack Dorsey fired 50% of his staff at his financial technology company BLOCK to concentrate on Ai. BLOCK which owns payment Co CASH App went from 10,000 employees to 6000 in what Dorsey called "one of the hardest decisions in the history of the company." BLOCK gained $16 at $67 just short of an all-time high $71.

On a quiet to mixed day for investors the Dow gained 17 led by Salesforce, Amex, IBM and Visa Inc. Going lower pulled down by Nsdq 100 stocks Cat, Merck, Amgen & Amazon. Nvidia fell $11 at $185 on profit taking after reporting record nos yesterday. The company stock has been a big disappointment adding 2% this year.

Nyse data

Issues 2838

Advances 1686

Declines 1053

U/c 99

NH 179

NL 42

T/vol(tn) 1•30

-------------

DJ +17 (49,499)

SP -37 (6909)

NS -295 (25,034)

R2 +9 (1601) R

WTI $65

10ytb 4•004%

----------

MSCI(W) +38 (4566)

Gold Bugs +27 (962) R

-----------------

Latest :- Vix 19. Brent $71.

Gold $5193. Copper $6•050.

Palm $1018. Silver $90•775.

$1•349. €1•424.

FF +32. DF -220.

Morning all.

Strong earnings nos from Nvidia boosted US stocks yesterday though a possible military conflict between the US & Iran kept investors forewarned. Mrkts closed the session just off day highs.

Gold rose as traders weighed geo political tensions in the ME helped by a softer dollar and safe haven demand. US gold futures for April delivery were flat at $5208. Gold has gained c.20% this year restoring the multi-year bull run as investors move out of the USD & t/bills. A little profit taking has clipped $12 off the gold price this morning. Tariff jitters are helping to power gold ($5561) & silver ($117) to record levels this year despite a strong sell off on profit taking this month.

Stocks on the 'Street' had a good day the Dow adding 308 and the 500 putting on 56. UH, IBM & Msoft were among the 13 climbers on the big board while Boeing, Home Depot & Verizon led the fallers.

Nvidia ($196) topped profit & revenue expectations in Q4 which helped ease investor concerns over the Ai boom. CEO Jason Huang said demand is not fading as companies are beginning to use Ai in everyday operations. He said " in this world of Ai compute equals revenues." Nvidia remains the world's bigest Co by mrkt value at $4•761tn which is more than the entire ftse100 and became the first company to be worth over US $5tn.

What makes Nvidia's rise to the top even more impressive is the efficiency behind it, as it takes only 36,000 employees to generate a mrkt value exceeding the GDP of Japan an economy powered by 124m people. Thats nothing short of historic for a company thats been quoted on the Nsdq for just 27 years.

Nyse data

Issues 2830

Advances 1589

Declines 1147

U/c 94

NH 209

NL 55

T/vol(tn) 1•20

------------

DJ +308 (49,482)

SP +56 (6946)

NS +352 (25,329)

R2 +5 (1593)

WTI $66

10ytb 4•050%

----------

MSCI(W) +38 (4578)

Gold Bugs +3 (935) R

----------------

Latest :- Vix 18. Brent $71.

Gold $5190. Copper $6•025.

Palm $1034. Silver $89•040.

FF +2. DF -113.

Morning all.

Concerns about the disruptive effects of Ai eased after start up Anthropic PBC emphasised partnerships with companies rather than displacing existing businesses would be the way ahead. Its also believed a uniform 15% global tariff announced by Trump would benefit some Asia-Pacific economies that have faced steeper tariff rates.

On Wall stocks posted solid gains led by technology counters as the Nsdq ended the day near session highs. The Dow top 30 closed up 370 at 49,174 led by IBM, Salesforce, Apple and Home Depot. Just 4 stocks closed in the red McD, Amex, JPMC & UH Group off $8 at $274.

Other techs in the headlines included blue chip AMD which surged $17 to $214 after inking a supply chip deal with Meta. The 5 year deal is worth c.$60bn. Keysight Tech soared $57 to $303 on upbeat Q2 earnings outlook and on going demand from data centers ramping up for Ai.

Investors in tech are having to learn to live with Ai which has the potential to change everything from software firms the legal profession, payment systems, banks and cybersecurity.

Nyse data

Issues 2823

Advances 1778

Declines 949

U/c 96

NH 171

NL 79

T/vol(tn) 1•20

-------------

DJ +370 (49,174)

SP +52 (6890)

NS +268 (24,977)

R2 +15 (1587)

WTI $66

10ytb 4•050%

-----------

MSCI(W) -37 (4540)

Gold Bugs +13 (923) R

----------------

Latest :- Vix 20. Brent $71.

Gold $5192. Copper $5•944.

Palm $1032. Silver $90•380.

$1•352. €1•146

FF +52. DF +2.

Morning all.

On Wall St yesterday stocks fell from the bell the Dow tumbling to its lowest level in a month. Mounting concerns over Ai disruptions, Trump's tariffs and tensions in Tehran added to investor worries. Trump looks to impose a 15% import replacement tariff immediately after suffering a major legal setback from the Supreme Court last week.

The Dow closed off its day low as 13/30 stocks bucked the gloom on the big board.

Risers were led by P&G, McD & Walmart. Heading lower Amex, Visa & JPMC. Big faller was IBM which tanked $33 to $223 a fall of 23% this year.

The trigger? Anthropics a privately held Ai research company announced that its "Claude Code" tool can automate COBOL a widely used language on IBM mainframes which could directly threaten their computer businesses.

COBOL developed in the 1950s still underpins a vast share of global banking infrastructure and reportedly powers about 95% of US ATM transactions. This was IBM's worst single day drop in 25 years. Many think IBMs fears are misplaced re: crypto where the real threat is in Ai.

Shares of other cybersecurity companies (Datadog & Crowdstrike) also slumped as investors weighed the impact of Anthropics new security tool on the industry.

Nyse data

Issues 2830

Advances 726

Declines 2034

U/c 70

NH 172

NL 104

T/vol(tn) 1•4

-------------

DJ -821 (48,804)

SP -72 (6376)

NS -304 (24,709)

R2 -33 (1572)

WTI $67

10ytb 4•048%

----------

MSCI(W) -38 (4517)

Gold Bugs +26 (919) R

----------------

Latest :- Vix 21. Brent $72.

Gold $5168. Copper $5•876.

Palm $1039. Silver $87•985.

$1•348. €1•145.

FF -8. DF +70.

Morning all.

Asia is trading mostly higher at the start of wk 9 after news that the US Supreme Court struck down most of Trump's global tariffs saying the IEE economic Powers Act does not authorise the President to impose tariffs.

Chinese mrkts remain closed for the Lunar New Year and Japanese exchanges are also closed for the Emperors birthday holiday. Shares in HK bounced back from Fridays fall to trade up 693 in late trade at 27,109 up 6% ytd.

In Sydney stocks have started on a down note after 4 days of gains last week. The ASX200 which contains the top 200 Aussie companies fell 55 points to 9026 the days low with weakness in energy and techs offset by gains in gold and miners. Major counters were sought as BHP & Mineral Resources put on 3%. In other news Nuix (AUD 1•56) surged 18% as the software provider returned to profitability in H1.

Other Pan Pacifica mrkts were all ahead led by Indonesia's JSX up 113 and Taiwans Taix up 167 points to 33,733 the 2nd best Asian market after Seoul's Kospi Comp up 38% ytd. Gold rose to a 3 wk high as futures for April delivery gained c.2% to $5185.

Latest :- Vix 19. Brent $71.

Gold $5147. Copper $5•821.

Palm $1039. Silver $86•975.

$1•352. €1•144. 10ytb 4•091.

FF -21. DF -274.

Morning all.

Asian exchanges ended lower on Friday as regional sentiment soured due to escalating US-Iran tensions. On the Dow investors worried about the health of the US economy, tariffs and the private credit sector. Nevertheless the Dow closed the week 125 better at 49,626.

Gold closed above the $5000 level but was set for a weekly decline as the USD surged to a 1 month high ahead of the release of US GDP & PCE inflation data. Gold which trades on a 24 hour basis is currently $5106 an ounce.

Oil ($71) rose to its highest level since August on rising geo political risks after Trump warned Tehran that it had a maximum 15 days to reach a deal with the US or "bad things will happen."

Mainland Chinese mrkts remained shut though HK's Hang Seng index fell 260 as traders returned from the holiday break. The index is up 3% to date closing at 26,444. Tokyo lost ground on a weaker yen as data showed Japan's key inflation gauge eased to its slowest pace in 2 years. The Nikkei ended the week 616 points down at 56,326.

In Soeul the Kospi which has been the outstanding performer this year (up 38%) surged 131 to a record 5809 as chip & defence stocks led the markets higher. In Sydney the ASX200 snapped a 4 day win streak to close at 9081 just short of its record high 9118 set on Thursday.

Markets are forecast to open mixed to lower on Monday if Trump carries out his threat to overthrow the regime. That might be impossible without boots on the ground. So a limited air strike against Iran seems the better option to force Iran to negotiate a peace deal.

Wk 8

Nyse data

Issues 2835

Advances 1639

Declines 1114

U/c 82

NH 168

NL 50

T/vol(tn) 1•4

-------------

DJ +231 (49,626)

SP +48 (6910)

NS +215 (25,013)

R2 +8 (1605)

WTI $66

10ytb 4•091%

----------

MSCI(W) +27 (4555)

Gold Bugs +12 (893) R

----------------

Close :- Vix 19. Brent $71.

Gold $5106. Copper $5•870.

Palm $1039. Silver $84•565.

Yen 155. Yuan 6•91.

$1•348. €1•144

FF +36. DF +2.

Morning all.