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Wall St stocks edged up yesterday as investors await the next Fed policy decision on rates. The major indexes held on to gains despite oil prices pushing $100 a barrel. Mrkts are expecting the Fed to hold rates steady despite geo political tensions. The Fed rate decision is out later today.

Iraq is reopening the mothballed Kirkuk-Ceyhan pipeline to Turkey to bypass the SOH. The 960km route aims to transport 200,000-250,000 boepd directly to Turkey bypassing the Kurdish region. This is vital to maintain revenues as oil sales account for 90% of Iraqi Government income.

However the SOH is only part closed as Iran is letting selected tankers through the Strait.

Energy, consumer & travel stocks gained though Eli Lilly ($930) fell 6% after a broker downgrade. Delta, Jet Blue & American rose on Q1 revenue guidance due to strong demand despite oil price rises. Delta ($65) expects to report revenue up c.9%. Ivanhoe Electric ($12) fell 11% following $58m cash inflows raising questions about its 'bull' case. Honeywell ($231) slipped near 2% signalling a potential ME conflict impacting Q1 revenue.

On the big board 14/30 stocks gained on the day led by IBM up $7 to $256, WD & Amazon. Heading down J&J, Salesforce and Amgen. Trading volumes were light with 17bn changing hands below the 20 daily average of 19•8bn.

Nyse data

Issues 2827

Advances 1860

Declines 886

U/c 81

NH 79

NL 51

T/vol(tn) 1•2

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DJ +47 (46,993)

SP +17 (6716)

NS +125 (24,780)

R2 +13 (1509)

WTI $93

10ytb 4•184%

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MSCI(W) +40 (4387)

Gold Bugs -4 (808)

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Latest :- Vix 22. Brent $101.

Gold $5012. Copper $5•722.

Palm $1163. Silver $80.060.

$1•337. €1•158.

FF +17. DF +288.

Morning all.

The AA has started to warn drivers to make only essential road journeys to save petrol as prices soar. If roads round my area of South London are anything to go by where traffic is nose to tail moving at 2 mph no'ones listening.

The Chancellor will make a statement after the G7 emergency meeting on oil reserves which the G7 intend to hold off dipping into. Current Brent price ($101) is at its highest in 6 years and jumped over 20% today.

Stocks in the US sank from the off, as the Dow slumped over 450 points soon after the 9:30 am bell signalled the start of trading. Cisco, 3M and Boeing led the early fallers while P&G, Amgen and J&J headed the 11 risers. The UK ftse index turned better near the close trading around 10,250 for a small loss on the day as Chancellor Reeves confirmed the UK is ready to support release of global oil stockpiles in an effort to ease the economic shock.

Trump told reporters the conflict would be resolved very soon. Trump has said he's considering seizing control of the SOH a choke point for ships. He warned Iran he would hit them 20x harder if they try to block shipping through the SOH.

With the Dow down over 1800 points since the start of the month its certainly undergoing a correction. No'one knows if stocks are in a pull back mode or a worst case 'bear market.' There has been 15 corrections in the last 17 years, one every year for the last 15 on average.

As the war seems set to continue for the foreseeable investors often use this time to rebalance portfolios by selling over valued assets and buying the dips. Gold and silver prices are down on profit taking and stagflation concerns which destroys purchasing power while jobs are scarce. Its a double whammy where consumers have less money and that money is worth less.

Investors noted Berkshire Hathaway has started to repurchase its class 'B' stock which new CEO Greg Abel says are trading at a discount to intrinsic value, very much out of Buffet's playbook. The stock trades around $450 and has a 'moderate buy' consensus. At the close the Dow had recovered 500 of the previous 2 days 1238 points losses.

DJ +239 (47,741)

SP +56 (6796)

NS +324 (24,967)

R2 +7 (1527)

WTI $90

10ytb 4•124%

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MSCI(W) -11 (4407)

Gold Bugs +7 (871)

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Latest :- Vix 25. Brent $92.

Gold $5175. Copper $5•197.

Palm $1080. Silver $89•230.

FF +70. DF -50.

Morning all.

Markets in Asia tumbled on reopening as oil prices surge over $100 a barrel and the conflict sees no sign of ending, spreading to countrie's as far away as Turkey, Sri Lanka and Azerbaijan. Iran have elected the son of Khamenei as the new supreme leader. He leads a bunch of dedicated religious fanatics and threatens to continue the fight against America. Trump said he will be 'taken out' at the earliest opportunity.

In Tokyo stocks slumped nearly 7% or 3760 points at the mid session break after reaching the session low of 51,400. At the close the 225 had tanked 2688 points (5%) in one of its all-time one day largest ever drops. In Sydney the ASX200 opened over 200 points lower to below 8500 as investors sold up on rumours Trump is planning more global tariffs. Investors across Asia & Pacifica were dumping stocks and buying commodities. Energy & oils were the only bright spots as the ASX200 closed down 252 at 8600 (1% on the year so far).

Worst hit were exchanges in S.Korea and Taiwan tumbling 8% & 6% respectively. Others in the region followed the down trend as Brent crude jumped over $115 a barrel on fears production will be severely hit and prices at the pump rise at an almost hourly rate. The rise in oil prices were the highest in nearly 4 years.

Trump said the oil price spike is a small price to pay for global security as his energy chief reassures Americans that pain at the gas pumps will last weeks not months.

At this rate the US Government may have to step in and support consumers by increasing production in the short term by c.100,000 boe. If oil prices stay at this level or get worse it will impact global energy prices as countries outbid each other for whatever remains on the market. Stock futures tied to the Dow plunged as much as 1000 points and WTI crude jumped 25% to over $115 as ME producers slashed output due to the closure of the SOH passageway. Iraq has seen its production slump by 70%.

The crunch in supply will increase hugely gas prices for UK consumers as we are exposed to price spikes due in part to a lack of storage as 30% of UK electricity comes from gas fired power plants used in 70% of UK homes.

Latest :- Vix 29. Brent $108.

Gold $5107. Copper $5•748.

Palm $1071. Silver $84•270.

$1•334. €1•153. 10ytb 4•18%

FF -100. DF -860.

Morning all.

The IDF continue to strike targets in Beirut backed up by America. Meanwhile Starmer confirms he will stand by the decision to attack Iran while staying on the sidelines as we repair our few available ships.

Can't blame him for that. The US consider us a liability and a hindrance rather than an ally fighting side by side against a common enemy. The shame of our useless'nence is having a terrible effect among battle hardened British troops used to victories in times past and the public in pubs and clubs

distraught at our in'effectiveness to join the battle.

Starmer thinks a few words of reassurance to the British public on TV will keep everyone happy. Not so sunshine. No'one believes for a minute that your fully behind US forces let alone our troops. You talk a good fight but hope others will do the heavy lifting.

I'm told by friends in America the UK should stay the hell out! They dont trust us anymore, dont want us anymore and we should go back to doing what we do best, planting tatties in our allotments and playing the flute.

I make th'em right. As much as we might front up, Trump will never consider UK forces for a leading role in attacking Iran. We dont have the manpower or will to deal with 1million Iranian militia or the few remaining Iranian jets. Our role is one of mostly fetch' n carry duties which we have become well suited for under this shameful labour Govt.

Trump told CNN that the war is ahead of what we planned and the amount of firepower is about to surge dramatically. He also said he would be instrumental in selecting the next Iranian leader who would have to be pro America. That might not go down well with the Mullahs but they dont call the tune anymore. Israel continues to attack Hezbolla in Beiruts southern suburbs while Tehran has become a ghost town as civilians stay indoors fearing Irans murderous police will kill on sight.

Meanwhile on Wall St, the Dow was under pressure from the bell. As the conflict enters its 6th day, investors fear a prolonged war will tank the global economy. That sent the Dow skidding from the off as investors ran for the exits. Brent crude the energy benchmark climbed above $84 while US crude hit $77. Gold which has fallen from an ytd high of $5626 saw an early uptick to $5117 and silver traded at $84 well off its 52wk high of $122.

On the Dow which had slumped over 1000 points at mid'day saw Salesforce up

$9 at $202 with IBM & Chevron leading the 5 other gainers. Caterpillar sank $33 to $698 for a $50 slump to date, along with GS the big loser down $41 at $696 and Amgen off $16 at $354. The Dow which had fallen throughout the session managed a late tick up to close off nearly 800 points taking its ytd fall off 0•25%.

Investors say the immediate outlook for mrkts hinge on whether shipping can move freely through the Straits, the oil price remains around $80 and the USD stays the currency of choice. As long as mrkts can see the US getting on top of

The US Senate will vote on Trump's decision to go to war against Iran this evening and will need a majority to pass which it failed to do by a 47-53 vote. The resolution if passed would have forced an end to the war. There now appears to be a complete breakdown between the UK and America after Trump plainly in a grumpy mood told reporters Starmer was 'no Winston Churchill.' Starmer had vetoed the US using British air bases in the Chagos islands and RAF Fairford in Gloucestershire.

The US continue to batter Iranian assets as a US submarine sinks an Iranian warship south of Sri Lanka with at least 80 killed or missing. The US have sunk over 20 Iranian surface ships to date. US Defence Secretary Hegseth says " they are toast, they cannot outlast us and they know it."

Israeli special forces are said to working in "various undisclosed arenas." They continue to strike Hezbolla in Southern Lebanon in an effort to neutralise that threat. Israel is preparing a full scale invasion into Lebanon and say they have struck a compound in Tehran housing many of Irans top headquarters officials. The tentacles of the Iranian Govt are being severed day by day.

While we leave the US and Israelis to fight the good fight one of our warships HMS Dragon is still moored in British waters taking on 'chocs & chips' for the troops. We have 6 type 45 class destroyers, 3 in readiness and 3 undergoing maintenance. We have 6 submarines one of which is on constant patrol and has been for over 50 years.

HMS Dragon should have been in Cyprus 10 days ago to protect our military base and is not expected for another 2 weeks. Meanwhile the French are in Cyprus covering for the Royal Navy. With an 80% reduction in personnel since 1950 and the fleet down 95% is it any wonder were up ***t creek without a paddle.

The Dow dropped 150 after the 9:30 am bell but buyers soon appeared pushing the index up over 250 points in mid afternoon trading. Shares in energy and defense companies rose strongly leading the mrkt bounce back. Airline stocks took a battering as carriers cancelled flights and bad weather grounded many and Dubai Airport & the iconic Burj Al Arab Hotel were hit by Iranian missiles killing 3 and wounding dozens severely damaging the cities reputation as an oasis of stability insulated from the regions conflicts.

Shares in IAG (British Airways) fell 5% and Air France-KLM sank 9%. Across the pond Delta and United saw few buyers losing 2% & 3% each while American was little changed at $12:50. Choppy trading in the afternoon saw investors buying on dips as the index traded in a narrow 200 points range.

Twenty of the big board top 30 were in positive territory led by Amazon ($216) up $7 IBM & Nvidia. Heading down Chevron, Coca Cola, P&G and Nike. Wall Street's fear gauge fell back as the climb in oil prices eased and investors bought the dip. The Cboe Volatility Index fell more than 11% to 21. In simple terms the vix drops on days when the mrkt

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