Member Info for JohnLewis79

7/10 stocks on analysts top picks for the next 12 months with the highest potential are all in the oil business.
US analysts have the most faith in the energy sector. There are c.80 in the 500 with 'buy' ratings and 10 have the best upside potential (most will be unknown to UK pis).

While crude (WTI) has risen 28% since end 2018 the energy sector has lagged way behind. Add in divs and it's still c.50% lower. So not just us suffering!

Sub par earnings reports from companies dented the Major US indices yesterday. Netflix the main casualty fell 12% after hours to $321 on nos of new subscribers that fell way below estimates. (Actual 2.7m v 5.0m) / US nos fell 100,000 / Globally 152m in Q2. Competition is fierce as Walt Disney and Apple join the streaming service providers.
IBM topped analysts estimates of GP & Eps though revs were flat. Stock fell c 50c to $143.
No news on trade saw the Dow slip 116 (27220), S&P off 20 (2984) and techs lost 38 (2984).

In the Far East trade impasse continues Huawei being the main sticking point. In a surprise move S.Korea cut rates for the first time in 3 years as the economy is struggling particularly with Japan. Exports in Japan fell for the 7th straight month the Nikkei down 343, HK fell 122 & SH lost 20. Other Pan Pacifics were all lower.

The nos: Oil $ 63.82.
Gold $ 1425. Coin $ 9743.
Vix 14. £$ 1.244. £€ 1.106
MSC1 528. FF -23 DF -62.

Morning all.

Consider G v HUR. Strange that Gs rating is in the dog house when we're a profitable div paying oiler
with unrealized gas assets and HUR a much loved loss maker that had a recent duster (Warwick Deep) and is valued at multiples of G, well 2 times anyways!
As far as I know HUR was revenue-less last year and posted c.£49m p/tax loss.
HUR is now banking on its Lancaster field in Scotland to produce for shareholders.
Analysts have pencilled in.c.$150m in p/t profit for 2020 making HUR a high risk exploration play, certainly riskier than G.

No sense in relative mrkt caps of the two companies.(G c.£546m v c.£950m. Gs nos are all blue, HUR all red. I cannot make sense of that. Just goes to show that increasing eps, profits dividends and revenues don't mean diddly squat.

C'est la vie I guess but G is hardly earning its keep for most pis, myself certainly
but with little to lose / gain
I may be the odd pis out.
If you bght G (a year ago to date) your 26% down.

As boyo said pis might have to rein in expectations as to Gs sp progress pending any of H's post '3 wk anniversary' (Tues 16.18) coming good.

You hit the nail on the head boyo!

Excellent trading update this morning ahead on all counts and trading remains robust.

A choppy session for US mrkts coming off record highs the Dow ranged between 27290 & 27400 on 276.3m shares traded.
At close the 30 had lost 24 the 500 off 10 and techs down 35.
Conflicting comments on trade from Trump (ready to pile on more tarrifs) "we have a long way to go"
made little impact, investors preferring to concentrate on Q2 nos in the real economy.
Several of the big banks reported better than expected Q2 nos. Expectations of.....were much lower. GS topped top and bottom lines as did JPM and Wells Fargo.
Fargo stock was the only decliner off 3% to $45.30.
Another outstanding result was from healthcare conglomerate J&J who reported a 40% surge in earnings shares down $2.20 to $132.50. Hundreds of companies are yet to report including some 80 who have lowered guidances.

Internet sales boosted the retail sector nos by 1.7%, import prices fell on slack global demand and crude fell c.3% ($57.59) after Iran hinted they would like to reopen talks with the US if sanctions could be softened. The impact of the Gulf of Mexico hurricane was less than feared.

Little movement on Asian bourses, TK off 87, HK down 104 & SH flat heading towards close.

The nos: Oil $ 64.54 (+23c)
Gold $1407. Coin $ 9385.
Vix 13. £$ 1.240. £€ 1.069.
MSCI 531. FF -15 (69% short). DF +7 (81% short)

Morning all.

Dodge you take a lot on trust backing Spieth who has had a very erratic time this year. He's a good links player (shudda won at St Andrews) so Portrush should suit. However waiting to rnd 3 you lose quite a few places, sometimes it pays off I know. Poulter is one of my 'bocks' but good luck with him. I'm thinking of backing 10 hoping to get 3 into places if not the winner. This strategy rarely works out for me. I once backed 20 in the Masters and found just one place. The bookies get away with murder in their pricing given 150 runners and outside of Copcar you get a different Major winner most years. I played Portrush back in the late 60s it was a bit ropey tbh
so obviously greatly improved.

US indices made small gains yesterday the Dow up 27 (27359), the 500 added 1 (3014) & Nsdq rose 14 (8258).
Citigroup kicked off the 2Q earnings season with better than forecast nos, eps $1.95 on revs of $18.8bn. Aggressive stock buybacks have been a big driver of the eps outperformance as the bank has cut its share count by 10% along with other US banks, JPM, Wells Fargo & BOA.

However consensus among analysts expects the overall earnings to contract by c.3% from a year ago. To date some 80 of the 500 have warned on weaker 2Q nos these Inc big names like Netflix, Adobe & Honeywell.
Crude was steady at $59.57 little moved on global oversupply worries, Mexico shuttering and weak China growth. Around 53% of traders are
long oil.

Little action in Asia. TK returned from holiday dropping 140. HK +38 & SH down 3. Face to face trade talks may resume this month.

The nos: Oil $ 66.55.
Gold $1416. Coin $ 10690.
Vix 12. £$ 1.251. £€ 1.111.
MSCI 531. FF -14. DF +1.

Morning all.

Well done dodge. Let me know who you fancy cos since the Canadian Open I have drawn a blank.

Everyone on holiday?

An epic wk end of sport. Amazing scenes at Lord's where Eng won the match after a 'super over' / fluke 6 runs by Stokes, taking the match into extra time with the scores tied. Eng got home virtue of more 4s & 6s. Friend of mine had £1000 coming his way had NZ won! (I had no cash at risk this wk end).

Roger blew his chance of a 9th title by fluffing his service for the match. He really won the "proper game" by 36 to 32 in games won.

I dont follow go-karting but Hamilton won apparantly.

The Open at Portrush starts Thrs. I have had small ew's on Rahm (16s) Woodland (50s) Spieth (35). Look to add a few more before kick off. No value in backing the leaders, often rnd 2 prices are much better.

Following the record busting US mrkts performance last week, Asian mrkts are quiet only SH & HK open for business. TK is closed for a public holiday but other smaller Pan Pacifics are trading.
China posted its weakest GDP growth nos for nigh on 27 years, or since 1992 when Data became available. It showed the Worlds 2nd largest economy expanded at 6.2% year on year down from 6.4% the previous Q.
The nos had been well trailed and came in as expected after the trade figs on Friday which China looks to emphasise trade in the domestic economy over exports. The US response looks flat, Dow futures see small gains.

While not disastrous a weakening Chinese economy has global repurcussions. Mrkts took the nos calmly HK up 52 & SH gaining 22 at mid'day.
With no trade news to respond to local factors dominated sentiment. Pharmas, techs & property up in HK, techs and pharmas up in SH.

The nos: Oil $ 66.66.
Gold $1414. Coin $ 10278.
Vix 12.4. £$ 1.256. € 1.125
MSCI 530. FF +5. DF +15.

Morning all.

"My idea of a group decision is to look in the mirror" dont know who said that first but i practice that continually and I don't have to shave! Two examples...G and my blood thing both yet to fully play out. Anyone care to share their 'buck the trend' share buys,
those that made it or failed and what you learned? Learning from the mistakes or failures of others is incredibly important more important imo than success stories. Study what not to do as much as what to do. 'Easy St' might be close but watch that gutter.

A public opinion poll is just that and never a substitute for rational thought.
So, here's my two penneth worth on the article H posted earlier. Firstly G fits the bill (heh heh heh) on several counts but here's the main one imo.

Some pis get comfort from investing with the crowd, perhaps safety in nos or "good everyone agrees with me" so I'm probably right. That's fine but what happens when everybody leaves the party? Well for starters you pay a high price for chummy consensus and
there is little upside in a stock after it becomes really popular.
You take a lot of risk for a low rate of return. Far better to seek stocks that are going through an unpopular phase because that's where your going to find tomorrow's Mr Popular stock selling at an attractive distressed price.

That equates to a low risk of losing your money for a higher return, potentially a multi bagger return. Since G hit the 70 lows and in the knackers yard it has demonstrated that unloved ones can rise and return cash in barrel loads to those who bucked the trend and ignored the 'fear factor'.

G was so out of favour with the big invstmnt funds, few pis were looking at it and G was selling at a price so out of kilter to its economic value as to be a 'no brainer buy', a golden nest-egg to tuck away and that the share price would in time come to reflect the realities of the business.

You don't have to be a professor of economics or have a Masters in Quantum theory to know if you buy a stock with an economic value of a $ for 50c you should do all right
In the long term. I think G
has proved that as the lemmings headed over the cliff.

Morning all.

I went to Lagos last wk and came back skint. Woodford was in economy with me.

I'd be vary wary of any investment at this juncture. The Dow looks toppy to me and clients of IG are c.80% short the Dow. They must be seriously hurting if they are having to roll over or cut positions.

Not much for giving advice (i wouldnt give myself a tip) but don't rush in there's always time. Poor Q2-4 nos could be a breaker. Practice a bit of 'masterly inactivity' until the view to 2020 becomes clearer.

Have a nice day.

More records busted on Friday as stocks climbed higher throughout the session. The 500 added 14 to (3014) the 4th straight gain, the Dow put on 243 (27332) and Nsdq climbed 48 to (8244).
Over wk (28) the Dow gained 410, the 500 up 24 and the Nsdq 82.

Setting the bullish tone was Powells comments on rates which are expected to be lowered in July and the jobs report which boosted sentiment on the economy. C.50 of the 500 will be reporting Q2 earnings in the coming days.
There was no reaction to China reporting disappointing trade nos, imports fell 7% indicating demand was way lower than forecast. Asia took the nos at face value barely moving on Friday. Over the wk TK lost 0.3%, HK down 1% and SH off 2.7%.

London fared little better the 3 major indices all fell
c.0.55%. Sterling was u/C on the week closing at $1.257 and the € 1.116.
Crude had a much better wk gained c.4%, Brent $67
& WTI $60.21.
A 30% shuttering of oil from the Gulf of Mexico, active rigs falling by 5 and
74 since last year, Persian Gulf tensions set the scene for oil price rises.

The nos: Oil $67.
Gold $1417. Coin $ 11556
Vix 12.4. £$ 1.257. € 1.1I6
MSCI 530. G 203 (+7)
Gkp 233 (+14) & Dno c.164p (+3).

Morning all.

Hallelulah G finishes up for the 4th straight wk. Now who'd have believed that?

Def invstrs off for the summer holidays as the City shuts down for all the sporting events. I think believers should add a few at this price as long as you intend to hold for more than 5 mins

Bunks, i thought he missed the break!