Member Info for JohnLewis79

Fingers crossed mickey- me-son!!

Well mickey1122 you are without doubt the most bullish invsrtr on this board and that's fine by me. Currently wer'e a story stock that investors aren't buying into or rather did but the India nonsense spoiled it for them and they drew stumps. I'm no more than 55:45 here as I fear many a slip between now and production, JV or otherwise and whats more I don't think the mrkt likes good news and rarely rewards it, so talk of multi, multi bagging from here is a long shot.

I give you I'm probably too pessimistic but that gold nugget never comes my way. You have given yourself a lot of leeway with 'Top Aim' riser in next 12 months, care to put a number on it? I won't hold you to it if it goes t's up!

Strange goings on in Malaysia.
The KLPI runs 5% down ytd against CPO up 17%. Worker shortage, the virus, a fall in output can this be responsible for such a difference?

Over in W.Africa Dkl continue to produce record numbers but again the sp shows little movement well short of the Arden forecasts. I expect much the same to happen here, better revs, reduced borrowings output flat to up
profits dependent on no major extraordinaries, shares stuck in a rut.

I think you have summed up most peoples views, feelings about PAT. Its natural we get over excited on good news and vice versa its just the way our brains work even if the sp is doing the opposite to the way we think it should, in my case nearly always!

I'm sticking with my 2 year view barring any Back Swan event because I have no idea what the sp is going to do today, tomorrow or whenever.
Taking the emotional aspect out which I find hard to do is best done by "bottom drawing" the shares for a few months. Easy to say, hard to do if your like me with only 3 stocks I watch.

Yea the wide spread will deter all but the most resolute of day traders and so in a roundabout way benefit the longer term viewer. Nearly 600,000 traded (w-t-d) that ain't bad for an Aim tiddler even if no'ones making money except the jobbies. They can go on playing the spread ad infinitum, don't be surprised to see 12-16 shortly.

Rea 98 (59)
Cpo $660 ($1135)
Cif(R) $1170e

Oil $32
Gold $1688

Vix 43

Ftse (5624)
All (3140)
DJ +780 (23433)
SP +91 (3750)
NS +204 (8091)
R2 +52 (1192)

$1•240
€1•142
IDR n/a

Anglo 450
Dkl 2•40
Mpe 555

55,242 cases
6159 deaths

Covid-19
O6:00

UK 4,367,291 (126,927)*
Indonesia 1,547,376 (42,064)•

* 2762 cases
* 45 deaths
• 4860 cases
• 87 deaths

DJ +16 (33,446)
SP +6 (4080) R
NS +38 (13,617)
R2 -18 (1325)
WTI $59•41
10ytb 1•668%

Selected
Apple $128
Boeing $252
Carnival $29
Coca Cola $53
Delta $50
Exxon $57
Fbk $314
GE $13
GM $61
JPMC $156
Moderna $132
Msoft $250
Tesla $672

Nos :- Oil $62•84. Vix 17.
Gold $1740. Copper $4•078.
Palm $1135. Silver $25•185.
$1•376. €1•158. IDR 14,545.
MSCI(W)2876. FF+22. DF+67.
Morning all.

Tight supplies of Palm Oil are expected to keep prices elevated with low inventory of palm and global edible oils supply. The average cpo price recorded a new monthly high in March (m-o-m) and 70% (y-o-y) to RM 4042pt. CGS-CIMB Research est Malaysian Palm Oil inventories declined by 24% (y-o-y) to 1•31mt end March 2021.

The research house said inventory level figs were consistent with historical trend that palm oil stocks had been declining at an average 1% (m-o-m) over the last 10 years. Going by this the House foresees cpo prices hovering between RM 3500-RM 4000pt
this month and to average RM 2900-2700 for 2021/2.

The House said that the Indo Govt biodiesel policies must be closely watched as any changes that increases the levy to fund B40 will be bullish for cpo prices but the impact on planters will favour Malaysian upstream planters and Indonesian refiners.

Rea 97 (59)
Cpo $650 ($1147)
Cif(R) $1140e

Oil $33
Gold $1677

Ftse +122 (5707)
All +82 (3141)
DJ 22,654
SP 2659
NS 7887
R2 1139

$1•233
€1•132
IDR 16,167

Anglo 450
Dkl 2•50
Mpe 580

51,608 cases
5373 deaths

Covid-19
04:00

UK 4,364,529 (126,882)*
Indonesia 1,542,516 (41,977)•

* 2379 cases
* 20 deaths
• 4549 cases
• 162 deaths

DJ -97 (33430)
SP -4 (4074)
NS -20 (13578)
R2 -2 (1344)
WTI $59•28
10ytb 1•662%

Selected
Apple $126
Boeing $255
Carnival $28
Coca Cola $53
Delta $52
Exxon $56
Fbk $306
GE $13
GM $62
JPMC $153
Msoft $248
Moderna $134
Tesla $692

Nos:- Oil $62•71. Vix 18.
Gold $1739. Copper $4•098.
Palm $1147. Silver $25•145.
$1•383. €1•165. IDR 14,491.
MSCI(W) 2873. FF +13. DF +8.
Morning all.

You could have got 12 on Thursday so no big deal today the jobby boys just playing with the 17% spread and happy to work the spread for beer money.

Rea 96 (59)
Cpo $628 ($1122)
Cif(R) $1140e

Oil $33
Gold $1689

Ftse +167 (5582)
All +100 (3059)
DJ +1627 (22680)
SP +175 (2664)
NS +540 (7913)
R2 +87 (1139)

$1•230
€1•148
IDR 16,455

Anglo 433
Dkl 2•50
Mpe 545

Virus (UK)
47,806 cases
4934 deaths

Covid-19
05:00

UK 4,362,150 (126,862)*
Indonesia 1,537,967 (41,815)•

* 2762 cases
* 26 deaths
• 3712 cases
• 146 deaths

Global
132,413,672 (+9579) cases.
2,873,680 (+417) deaths.

DJ +374 (33,527) R
SP +58 (4078) R
NS +269 (13,598)
R2 +6 (1346)
WTI $59•27
10ytb 1•692%

Selected
Boeing $259
Apple $123
Carnival $28
Coca Cola $53
Delta $50
Exxon $56
Fbk $298
GE $13
GM $61
JPMC $154
Msoft $242
Moderna $130
Tesla $662

Nos:- Oil $62•70. Vix 18.
Gold $1734. Copper $4•087.
Palm $1122. Silver $24•925.
$1•389. €1•177. IDR 14,518.
MSCI(W) 2873. FF -20. DF-77.
Morning all.

A blow out US jobs report on Friday (916,000) jobs added, kick started overnight futures on Sunday. The DJI jumping 200 points ahead of opening today since trimmed. Record daily vaccinations of c.3m are underpinning sentiment.

Only 5 mrkts are open in Asia today:- At JST 2:00pm.
TK +258
SK u/c
KL -3
STI +26
JSX -28

Nos:- Oil $64•26. Vix 17.
Gold $1724. Copper $4•054.
Palm $1106. Silver $24•840.
$1•383. €1•176. IDR 14,520.
MSCI(W) 2842. DF +41.
Morning all.

Mrkts closed

Virus (UK)
41,903 cases
4313 deaths

Covid-19
05:30

UK 4,359,388 (126,836)*
Indonesia 1,534,255 (41,669)•

* 2297 cases
* 10 deaths
• 6731 cases
• 427 deaths

Global
131,919,922 (+13,973) cases
2,866,006 (+237) deaths.

Floperoo, cazoo (to come) & techs are not the only assets getting dumped. Check US Treasuries and UK Gilts the yield on the 10yr t/bill has climbed from •7% to 1•7% which has pricked the 'puff' in tech stocks reliant on leverage & cheap money. Tesla a classic example fell 10% last month but has been on the slide since 'mouthy' Musk opined on GameStop and other non electric car matters.
He may be ahead on his Bitcoin gamble but hardly a gilt edged investment is it?

Analysts have been predicting a tech rout for a good few years and if bond yields cont upwards expect further falls, as much as 30% from here some say, which would take the Nsdq Comp to c.9000. No'one is sure how a fall of that magnitude would effect the real economy.

Rising gilt yields will feed through to higher mortgage costs. In the US, long term mortgage rates are up 6 weeks in a row to c.3•20%. Borrowing costs are going up and there are fears a credit crunch is around the corner that wouldn't help the recovery or US borrowings.

Gold normally a safe haven has been sliding this year but gold bulls say the corner has turned and a new leg up has started. Popular belief is that rising rates are bad for Gold but noone is 100% sure, as during the huge bull market of gold in the 70s rates were high and rising. The correlation between high or low rates and gold prices are unproven statistically.

I intend to buy some physical Gold on the chance that Gold heads upwards and bond yields continue to attract savers cash.