Member Info for JohnLewis79

Asian mrkts are off to a weak start this morning after negative cues from Wall St on Friday as particularly heavy selling on the Nsdq saw the index tumbling 490 points.

In Tokyo techs lead the Nikkei's decline. At mid'day the 225 is off 770 falling below the 50,100 level dragged down by a 6% fall in heavyweight Softbank (not a bank) shares. Heading lower other techs inc Advantest track Softbank.

Banks & financials are mostly higher though motors Honda, Nissan, Toyota and exporters Canon, Sony and Panasonic are showing mixed results. Major losses are among Steels, Japan Steel Works & Nippon Steel both tumbling 6%. Elsewhere across Pan Pacifica its a mixed picture though S.K & Taiwan are substantially lower, KL & Djakarta are ahead as are HK & Shanghai. In the currency mrkts the USD is trading in the higher 155 Yen range.

Stocks in Sydney closed down 67 points at 8631 as mining & energy are sold off amid tumbling commodity prices. Mrkt heavyweights BHP & Rio Tinto are ahead 3% but oils are lower with weakness in Santos, Woodside & Origin Energy. Ytd the 200 is up 6%.

Market sentiment among Gold investors remains cautious to volatile especially in India where demand for Gold is traditionally high currently at INR 55,000 per 10 grams. A strong USD weighs on Gold prices as do fluctuating int rates, and slowdowns in major economies. Safe haven can sometimes be unsafe though gold throughout history has maintained its value.

Latest :- Vix 16. Brent $61.

Gold $4343. Copper $5•394.

Palm $975. Silver $62•810.

$1•336. €1•138. 10ytb 4•18%

FF +31. DF +132.

Morning all.

Nyse data

Issues 2841

Advances 918

Declines 1842

U/c 81

NH 166

NL 21

T/vol(tn) 1•2

------------

DJ -246 (48,458)

SP -74 (6827)

NS -490 (25,197)

R2 -17 (1510)

WTI $58

10ytb 4•184%

-----------

MSC1(W) -36 (4408)

Gold Bugs -6 (701)

---------------

Close :- Vix 16. Brent $61.

Gold $4299. Copper $5•358.

Palm $971. Silver $62•085.

Yen 156. Yuan 7•05.

$1•337. €1•139.

FF +15. DF +35.

Morning all.

I dont want to leave the impression MSi stock is of a canine variety! Mind you, if it was a Rhodesian Ridgeback I would rapidly change my mind!

Lse has trading vols of 33k versus the London stock exchange nos of 52k at the time of this blog . Not that it makes much difference. If the jobbers are prepared to take losses on their dealing accounts so be it. Afterall they have been buying MSi since 1705 (ok, no doubt traded a few at a profit). However the final accounting on current dealings won't make pretty reading if they continue to mop up all these sells in hopes they can find buyers.

Sooner or later the shorts might think its time to take their their profits and head home, leaving the jobbers stranded. Will it happen? No, imo the shorts will be crucified by the jobbers who are already waiting and will leave them with nowhere to go. Easy money rarely comes to short-term traders punting in the account. They will pay a hefty penalty.

With the stock staring at £10 if not lower, investors seem to have thrown in the towel regardless on MSi. That might be a tad premature if your banking on p/e ratios, p/bt and return on capitali invested etc to get you out of a hole. Me'thinks that boat has long gone as once sentiment turns sour the only way back for most dog stocks is...... never!

Bloody typical as soon as I buy down the stock goes! Oh well in for another few quid before sub £10. Rapidly becoming one of Aims worst perfomers over last 3 months.

At mid'day the Dow had surged 620 points to a new intra-day high following yesterday's 25 bp rate cut to 3•5%-3•75%. Despite uncertainty around inflation, the US deficit, a weakening Labour mrkt and higher long'term borrowing costs for households the markets are testing all-time highs.

One notable exception was Oracle stock which fell 15% in early dealings. The Nsdq took fright down 300 to 25,372 at one stage mainly due to over valued loss making tech stocks.

Visa, UH and Home Depot got the Dow off to a bright start as 21 on the big board posted gains with Investors looking to a traditional Santa Rally (last 5 days in Dec, first 2 in Jan). Not joining in Nvidia, Coca Cola & Amazon led the 8 fallers. Big loser on the session was Oracle which slumped 11% to $196 wiping $80bn off the companies Q2 value amid Ai bubble fears.

Oracle's p/e of 51 is substantially above its peers and analysts have a consensus stock price rating of 'moderate buy.' Mounting Ai costs for tech companies are set to increase to $1•4tn due to their deals spree with Nvidia, CoreWeave, AMD & Broadcom and will face increasing competition from Google. This has made investors even more wary of the inflated sector prices.

At this time of the year many brokers are publishing their stock and index forecasts for 2026. So far the lowest forecast is 6500 and the highest Oppenheimers 8,100. Forty five of the S&P 500 traded at new 52 wk highs among the better known GM, J&J, Delta, Citigroup & Cat.

Gold and Silver prices remain elevated with Gold making a strong rebound up $42 to $4277 after remaining in a tight range over the last few trading sessions. Silver benefitted from the US dollar Index dropping to 98•55 which further strengthened it's appeal as an alternative store of value at $64•04. Talk of $100 silver looks ambitious with most in the $50-$80 range for 2026/7.

Nyse data

Issues 2846

Advances 1871

Declines 902

NH 73

NL 239

T/vol(tn) 1•2

------------

DJ +646 (48,704)

SP +14 (6901)

NS -90 (25,687)

R2 +17 (1526) R

WTI $58

10ytb 4•163%

-----------

MSCI(W) +20 (4444)

Gold Bugs +29 (707) R

-----------------

Latest :- Vix 15. Brent $62.

Gold $4280. Copper $5•478.

Palm $985. Silver $64•040.

FF +40. DF +117.

Morning all.

Well I said if the stock fell to 1320 or below i would add and have done so. Other than general investor nervousness I see no reason why the stock should have fallen 385p since mid November that's equivalent to 23% in a month.

Those types of falls are usually seen in mrkt slumps, however the ftse 100 over the period is up 28 and the Aim small cap index is flat. So one must assume its MSi specific and since the company will not divulge any mrkt sensitive information the shorters have decided a weak Aim stock is ripe for the taking.

Next stop could be 1200 or lower and since borrowing money to add to a losing stock is a no-no i have decided to sell a long'term hold to put into MSi should the shares fall any further. At 1320 MSi is valued at £216m and ytd is up 42% so no need to panic yet. I'll do that when it hits 910!

Cinema chain Everyman and bookie William Hill saw their shares tumble on poor nos and outlook. The future of William Hill is in doubt after its owner put itself up for sale following the dreadful budget which hit leisure and gambling shares and will certainly mean thousands of job losses. Evoke which owns the bookie and 888 has launched a review that could lead to a sale or breakup of the business.

News of the review sent the shares up 3p to 25p.

The budget raised remote gaming duty from 21% to 40% and online sports duty from 15% to 25%. Although horseracing is exempt Evoke said its duty costs would rise by 135m a year. Taxing people's leisure spend is typical Labour, damaging to the industry & forcing people

to tighten their belts.

Cinema chain Everyman lost 20% of its value due to a disastrous trading update. The group which runs 49 UK cinemas said poor box office takings meant sales & profits would come in below City forecasts. Shares slumped 21% or 7•5p to 28. leaving it valued at £25m. The industry is not going to disappear but its trials & tribulations just got a whole lot worse as it looks on the cards that Netflix will buy Warner Bros meaning more big titles will go straight to streaming.

Nyse data

Issues 2844

Advances 1990

Declines 760

U/c 94

NH 281

NL 19

T/vol(tn) 1•4

------------

DJ +497 (48,058)

SP +46 (6887)

NS +108 (25,776)

R2 +29 (1509)

WTI $58

10ytb 4•129%

----------

MSCI(W) +25 (4425)

Gold Bugs +6 (678)

---------------

Latest :- Vix 16. Brent $62.

Gold $4214. Copper $5•376.

Palm $980. Silver $62•160.

$1•337. €1•143.

FF +1. DF -206.

Morning all.

Chemring has sounded the alarm over delays to defence spending promises by the Labour Government. Global focus on defence spending continues to intensify due to the Ukraine war and the urgent need for Europe to rebuild its defence base.

The industry fears the lack of commitment will badly effect small and medium sized companies that make up crucial supply chains for the industry. A defence source said these firms are 'bearing the brunt' of delays.

The sectors hopes were raised earlier this year when Labour's strategic defence review pledged an increase in the defence budget to 2•5% of GDP by 2027 and 3% by the next Parliament. Regrettably spending on defence is low on the Govt list of priorities.

MSi falls this month now at 155p would lead you to think the company had lost a contract or worse issued a profit warning. Far from it. The delayed nos are still expected to show a material rise in profits and revenues and the long delayed selling of the petrol stations and related businesses could boost the shares to a more sensible level.

Shorters who hold stock at 1550 & above must be getting twitchy to cash out.

I bought recently and have the 'available' to add if the shares fall to below 1320.

Noone likes to see a stock you own fall as precipitously as MSi from an intra-day high of 1705 in mid Nov but sometimes this can be a welcome buying opportunity.

Wall St was directionless ahead of the Fed's monetary policy announcement later today widely expected to lower rates by another 25 bp. Traders are uncertain about the path for rates next year with many betting Jan will see no change.

The Dow fell 180 weighed down by a sharp drop in JPMC stock off 5% after an executive said expenses next year could come in around $9bn higher than forecasts. This sits against a resilient backdrop of 25% gains in the stock this year. Nvidia ($184) fell after Trump said he will let the company export H200 chips to China with the US taking a 25% cut. Eleven on the big board top 30 gained on the day led by Walmart, GS & P&G while JPMC, Boeing & Verizon propped up the losers board.

On the jobs front delayed data showed openings stood at 7•7m in both Sept and October (a 5 month high). Both readings above consensus but layoffs also increased more than expected.

Silver was the days top story breaking above $60 to a record $61•50 an ounce. Silver has a big retail base and has doubled in value this year eclipsing gold's 60% rise. Some traders talk of $100 silver prices if the current momentum continues. A much needed pause in golds trend has not stopped prices reach new highs supported by solid fundamentals. Golds all-time record occurred in Oct '25 when the price hit $4381 an ounce.

Nyse data

Issues 2846

Advances 1496

Declines 1239

U/c 111

NH 88

NL 27

T/vol(tn) 1•2

-------------

DJ -179 (47,560)

SP -6 (6841)

NS +41 (25,669)

R2 +7 (1480)

WTI $58

10ytb 4•185%

----------

MSCI(W) -5 (4400)

Gold Bugs +22 (672)

---------------

Latest :- Vix 17. Brent $62.

Gold $4203. Copper $5•369.

Palm $979. Silver $61•570.

$1•331. €1•144.

FF -27. DF +15.

Morning all.

Picked up a few at a bargain 1386p......

Ftse All-Share Index Ranking (unofficial guide) as at Tuesday 2/12/2025.

1 AZN £212 bn.

2 HSBC £187 bn.

3 Shell £165 bn.

4 SNDR £122 bn.

5 BHP £110 bn.

100 Croda £3736bn

200 BRWM £1351bn

431 MSi £254m

565 TEK £20m

-------------

December tends to be a strong month for stocks though today's action on the Dow saw traders banking profits. During today's session techs were a strong spot with Broadcom ($401) up 2% to a new intra-day high and Confluent shares surged 29% after IBM said it was going to buy the company in an all cash deal worth $11bn.

Others due to report 2Q nos included Oracle whose stock price has been weak of late due to worries over the companies half a trillion Ai deals booked with Open Ai and Meta. Shares hit a $126 low in April but have rebounded strongly this year up some 32% closing at $221. It's 3Q earnings are expected to hit $16bn a 20% annual increase.

The Dow which hit a days high of 48,134 closed in the red off 216. Ten of the top 30 gained led up by Disney ($108), Boeing and Nvidia. P&G, Nike and Amgen led the losers board. Later this month Cavana ($447) will be added to the S&P 500 stocks lists with analysts at the BOA targeting a $485 stock price.

Oil prices eased after 3 days of gains as traders monitored India's buying of Russian crude which Putin promised "uninterrupted shipments", even as Moscow faces stricter sanctions over its war in Ukraine.

Gold and silver prices had their worst one day drop in years on profit taking. Gold currently trades at $4180 & silver held at c.$58 an ounce highlighting tightening physical conditions and strong industrial demand. However the outlook for silver & gold next year remain uncertain. Both precious metals are among the best performers this year.

DJ -215 (47,739)

SP -24 (6847)

NS -64 (25,628)

R2 -7 (1474)

WTI $59

10ytb 4•179%

----------

MSCI(W) -14 (4405)

Gold Bugs -14 (650)

---------------

Latest :- Vix 17. Brent $62.

Gold $4170. Copper $5•361.

Palm $985. Silver $58•275.

$1•333. €1•145.

FF -2. DF +26.

Morning all.

Asian mrkts have opened wk 50 on a mixed note led by directionless Australian mrkts despite positive cues from Wall St ahead of the next US monetary policy decision on rates.

The benchmark ASX200 traded sideways throughout the day closing down 10 at 8624 as weakness across gold miners & energy kept investors cautious ahead of the Reserve Bank of Australia's rates decision on Tuesday. Oils, techs & banks are all lower while the Aussie dollar trades at 0•664.

In Tokyo the 225 closed the morning session down 18 led by tech weakness. However exporters buck the downtrend with gains of c.2% seen in Mitsubishi, Panasonic & Canon. Major losers among second liners inc Aeon off 5%, Lasertec down 3% & Resonac Hldgs 3%. In economic news Japan's GDP contracted 2•3% on an annualised basis. The 225 ended the day up 73 at 50,565.

Elsewhere in Asia, HK is down 266 in late pm trade while Shanghai is ahead 30 heading to the close along with NZ, Taiwan and Indonesia. SK & Singapore are lower by 0•1 & 0•7% each. Minor Pacifica exchanges (Thailand, Laos, Sri Lanka & Bangladesh) are mixed to lower.

Latest :- Vix 15. Brent $64.

Gold $4217. Copper $5•478.

Palm $995. Silver $58•685.

$1•335. €1•144. 10ytb 4•49%

FF -13. DF +35.

Morning all.

MSI shares fell 172 on the week (1552-1380) as volumes ramped up considerably with nearly 44,000 traded on Friday (wkly totals not available). Not sure the drop was warranted but the jobbers play to their own rules, we have to sit and suffer or take the prices on offer. I shall be adding on Monday if the shares remain at this low level.

Perhaps the delayed F/Y nos have worried investors who have not 'bought' the reason stated by the company for said delay. Suffice to say if the nos disappoint you will be looking at £12 a share.

Wk 49

MSi

---

Sp 1380-1410

Ytd + 52%

1/25 910

H 1620

L 770

7/88 113

----

Ytd

100 +18%

250 +7%

All +17%

Aim +4%

---

Vix -11%

Gold +60%

Brent -15%

Palm -10%

----

DJ +13%

SP +17%

NS +22%

R2 +5%

-------

For the second straight week the Dow, Nsdq & 500 all gained as investors followed the money. Small caps have

out'performed rallying strongly over the past 2 weeks. The Russell 2000 is up 0•8% this week after a 5•5% jump last week to close at 1480 just short of its all-time 1526 high. All the low quality, unprofitable highly leveraged businesses have been among the best sector performers these past few weeks.

On the economic front consumer spending which accounts for 66% of all economic activity rose 0•3% in Sept. The PCE index advanced 2•8% in line with forecasts and in a separate survey by the University of Michigan on consumer trends showed sentiment improving in Dec to 53 topping the 52 forecasts.

In the wake of the 43 day Govt shutdown the major indexes and companies had a good week. Standing out Warner Bros Discovery climbed 6% to $26 after Netflix agreed to buy its TV, film studios & streaming devices for close to $83bn.

Paramount Skydance ($13) one of the other bidders for Warner fell 9%. Paramount Skydance chief David Ellison who bid $30 for Warner met with Trump officials to press his case against the merger. David Ellison's billionaire father Larry Ellison is close to Donald Trump and regulatory challenges to the merger in the US & Overseas would likely see the deal fail.

Ulta Beauty soared 13% to $600 after raising annual revenue and profit forecasts and Elon Musk is preparing to sell shares in SpaceX in a transaction that could value the business at $800bn making it the most valuable company on earth.

On the Dow 13/30 stocks advanced led by Salesforce up $13 to $261. Going down Amgen topped the losers board slipping $10 to $330 with Chevron & P&G not far behind. Declining issues outnumbered risers by 1•2:1 with the S&P 500 posting 33 new 52wk highs and 7 new lows. Vols on US exchanges was 16•2bn compared with the 17•72bn average for the full 20 trading days.

Nyse data

Wk 49

-----

Issues 2850

Advances 1286

Declines 1456

U/c 108

NH 134

NL 33

T/vol(tn) 1•1

------------

DJ +104 (47,955)

SP +13 (6870)

NS +110 (25,692)

R2 -2 (1480)

WTI $60

10ytb 4•141%

----------

MSCI(W) u/c (4419)

Gold Bugs -4 (664)

---------------

Close :- Vix 15. Brent $64.

Gold $4197. Copper $5•450.

Palm $996. Silver $58•800.

Yen 155. Yuan 7•07.

$1•333. €1•145.

FF -9. DF +15.

Morning all.

Nyse data

Issues 2844

Advances 1314

Declines 1443

U/c 87

NH 128

NL 25

T/vol(tn) 1•1

--------------

DJ -32 (47,851)

SP +7 (6857)

NS -25 (25,582)

R2 -3 (1482)

WTI $60

10ytb 4•104%

----------

MSCI(W) +16 (4418)

Gold Bugs +6 (668)

---------------

Latest :- Vix 16. Brent $63.

Gold $4226. Copper $5•466.

Palm $991. Silver $58•700.

$1•335. €1•145.

FF +4. DF +44.

Morning all.

Until the company update us on Terrahawk / Paladin and its uses in Ukraine that video impressive as it was went over my head. So, it shoots, hits or misses targets so what's the big deal?