Member Info for johncut

It’s just profit taking. I think it’s up from about £28 4-5 weeks ago to now £34+ So that’s a 20% gain. I would just relax.

Looks like the cladding news has pulled all housebuilders down. Not sure if BWY is exposed but nothing in their trading statement whereas PSN has set aside some money. I imagine costs will be fairly limited to housebuilders as they were following government guidelines so really taxpayers are going to pickup the bill.

I would just top up if you have spare £££

I would bale out of PSN - book value to price is about 2.7. Bellway and Redrow much better value. Crest is also cheap but not as good margins, roe although prob a recovery play.

Just need some more patience. Balance sheet looks good with a big, growing cash pile and record investment in land plots. Focusing on higher value properties before help to buy cap shows the company can move quickly to alter strategy. A lot to like in this update. Imagine Redrow and other house builders will go the same way.

I reckon a lot of downside is priced in already and imagine houses have been selling quicker than 2019 over the last 5-6 months. Imagine it’s been harder to complete with solicitors due to workload pre end of stamp duty. I think if extension of this is announced in the budget then all house builders will jump a few percent. SP has climbed a bit in last couple of weeks so it may not really move come update unless really outperforms. What is it buy the rumour sell the news.

That’s a nice article ??

I personally think that H2B will be extended certainly until 2025 for the next election. Interest rates will be low and consumers have a 100bn savings buffer ready to spend so builders will have a tailwind for certainly the next couple of years probably allowing SP to get up to £40-50 a pop.

Copying this from the Crest Nicholson articles in the Telegraph...
Something for the masses...have been reviewing a few investing techniques and returns

John Baron - Investor Chronical IT specialist. Found this quite interesting when started investing but with not too much knowledge. Focuses in building a diversified, global IT portfolio.
The main summer portfolio has returned 387% since '09 to Jan '21

Richard Beddard - On Interactive Investor and his share sleuth portfolio. Focusing generally on small UK companies with a very analytical focus has turned 30K into 180K or returned 500% since '09 to Jan '21.

Bogdan - Your approach as above returned 1400% in the same time frame as 2 above.

Just shows that backing the right horses in a tight portfolio is a very good call.

My takings from it are that the IT's are good if have limited time / resources to put into investing. The John Baron portfolio is probably still twice a tracker so worth while. The Richard Beddard portfolio is interesting as i imagine once the covid recovery gets going this portfolio of UK smaller will gallop. If you look at the top rated shares in the spreadsheet the surplus is around 2,3,4% whereas the Bogdan portfolio is focusing on this 10% number and over 11/12 years it would really appear to work.

Article for the house builder bulls...

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/12/30/england-needs-build-300-homes-day-cope-migrant-surge-study-finds/

Thanks Strictly - i will go back to have a look. I have just really noticed the share price moves and have just wondered that will give you plenty of opportunities.

Do you have a different pot of money to trade with and another for buying and holding or just go the whole hog with the same lump of cash?

Hi,

Just wonder if anyone has any view on trading property stocks? Both Redrow and Bellway have been very volatile over the past few months throwing up opportunities (more than i am used to at any rate). I can see the Beta is higher than 1 for both stocks indicating will move more than the market average. Eg: Redrow has gone from 400 to nearly 600 in the space of 2 months and up and down in between. Personally i don't go in for trading and just buy to hold generally however seems like there are opportunities if were inclined.

Not sure if any interest but 2 of the best performing IT’s In my SIPP have Bellway at no 1 & 2 in their holdings

Mercantile
Henderson Smaller Companies

Expect these to get a big bounce if a deal actually gets agreed. Henderson is back at a near 9% discount to NAV which will definitely close when the announcement comes.

Strictly and Vlad thanks for the insights of investing and specifically the info on housing sector. Hoping to make better decisions moving forward or at least avoid pitfalls.

to add..

i did wonder why if you have 253m in cash plus undrawn facilities of £495m why would you take outa further £130m in bonds?? Its cheap money at 2.7% but just seems a bit unnecessary.

The trading update looked solid but i guess wider market sell off was for the fall. Wish I'd dived in some more this morning at £26.5.

They seem to be building a cash buffer at £250m so i guess the £0.5 dps is conservative but i think the emphasis on buying building plots is a better use of capital long term...especially if any forced sellers. Definitely not making anymore land. I agree on the Buffett philosophy with dividends - If it doesn't get paid out ultimately is should be reflected in a higher share price.

Redrow seemed to take more of hit today and now trading at 1.07 to book and Bellway 1.14