Member Info for john46

Wids , the Yanks are in a catch 22 situation . They have to keep raising rates to maintain dollar repatriation to sustain budget deficit . Which will inevitably lead to a recession .

Should the FED step in , trust in the system will collapse this time.

Freya , wasn't criticising your post , just making observations , on which Mick has expanded.

It costs $500M to set up a Gold mine and Solg is near as damm it worth the same .Nothing extracted yet .

It appears most folk on there don't know 85% of gold mined Globally is done so at a loss. Present low gold prices won't help matters

"While some traders may be staying on the sidelines ahead of the key U.S. jobs report Friday, most see more pain for developing nations, particularly if President Donald Trump’s administration follows through on a plan to levy $200 billion of additional tariffs on Chinese imports after a consultation period ends Thursday. China has threatened to retaliate."

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-09-06/asian-emerging-markets-get-breather-as-u-s-weighs-more-tariffs?srnd=premium-europe

USA is England , that's why they speak English.

"The textbook recipe for an emerging-market crisis requires a large dose of debt and an associated domestic credit bubble, including misallocation of capital into uneconomic trophy projects or financial speculation. Then add: a weak banking sector, budget deficits, current-account gaps, substantial short-term foreign-currency debt and inadequate forex reserves. Season with narrowly based industrial structures, reliance on commodity exports, institutional weaknesses, corruption and poor political and economic leadership.

Based on these criteria, the number of emerging markets at risk extends well beyond Turkey and Argentina. Like Tolstoy’s families, each nation has different sources of unhappiness.

Total emerging-market borrowing increased from $21 trillion (or 145 percent of GDP) in 2007 to $63 trillion (210 percent of GDP) in 2017. Borrowings by non-financial corporations and households have jumped. Since 2007, the foreign-currency debt – in dollars, euros and yen – of these countries doubled to around $9 trillion. China, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, South Africa, Mexico, Chile, Brazil and some Eastern European countries have foreign-currency debt between 20 percent and 50 percent of GDP.

In all, EM borrowers need to repay or refinance around $1.5 trillion in debt in 2019 and again in 2020. Many are not earning enough to meet these commitments."

https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2018-09-03/we-may-be-facing-a-textbook-emerging-market-crisis

Naturally , some folk will think Lloy is impervious to these events

Gold at $1160/oz is a gauge to cause major concerns .

"Swedish minister on canceling Brexit: ‘Wouldn’t that be a good idea’"

Anneka will be out of a job in 11 days time .

"U.S. equities slumped, emerging-market assets tumbled and the dollar rallied as traders sold riskier assets amid turmoil in Argentina and Turkey and growing concerns about the outlook for global trade."

DOW had a DOJI on Tuesday , that should have been a clue to yourself , that it was going to change direction .

"Emerging markets got pummeled again amid concern that Argentina and Turkey’s struggles to restore investor confidence will pressure their economies further -- while embroiling the rest of the developing world. That comes at a really bad time when considering the other challenges that investors face -- the end of an era of cheap money, prospects of a global trade war and deep political uncertainties in places such as Brazil."

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-08-30/brutal-selloff-in-argentina-turkey-engulfs-emerging-market-peers?srnd=premium-europe

Make your own deductions

You are probably our senior member on here . By your posts instinct has served you well in your lifetime . Keep your wits about you bud.

"The central bank raised rates to a global high of 60 percent on Thursday, a day after President Mauricio Macri shocked the country with an appeal for more cash from the International Monetary Fund. It’s not clear if either measure will be enough to halt a run on the peso, which slumped more than 15 percent as of 12:20 p.m. in Buenos Aires. It’s down more than 50 percent this year, the world’s worst "

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-08-30/argentina-hikes-interest-rate-to-60-to-stem-peso-plunge?srnd=premium-europe

First of many black swan moments in EM

Thank you , oversight . Let's add land and property to the hedge

"Tech stocks have had a large run-up in price this year,” Ihor Dusaniwsky, head of research at S3 Partners, said in an email. “The greater the rise, the greater the fall so they are being targeted as the stocks to short. With the bull market possibly entering the backstretch, portfolio managers are bracing for a selloff and increasing their overall market short exposure.”

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-08-29/short-bets-against-faang-stocks-have-surged-to-37-billion

Nothing's safe .

Barc has dropped its BTL LTV criteria from 66% to 60 % . They're obviously in the know also.

I'd much rather have Newchurch on my flank than yourself .

Keep averaging down

The way matters are transpiring with Lloy , in 2 yrs time you'll be known as " keep averaging down " .

James , keep preaching the Gospel of enlightenment .

A distant relative works at the Coca Cola plant near Wakefield . He's also told me volume of production is shrinking , demand shrinking , folk becoming more health aware . Tastes / habits change with time , Guinness being another example .

There's probably over capacity in the Industry , taking direct and indirect costs per unit , production will always be transferred to cheapest cost base.

Give your customers value for money , or you loose business

The Yanks were led to believe he was a hero , until it was pointed out to them he was an accessory to mass murder .probably why they saw the light when it came to raising their flag again.