Member Info for john46

"2. History & Current Status
Every recession since 1975 - including the Financial Crisis of 2008 - has been preceded by an inverted yield curve (as defined by the 2 year Treasury having a higher yield than the 10 year Treasury).

The difference between the 2 year and 10 year Treasuries as of July 5, 2018 was 0.28%, which is the narrowest gap since August of 2007, shortly before the Financial Crisis.

In July of 2017 the average gap was 0.95%, which means the gap has narrowed by 0.67% in the last year. Should the relationship change by another 0.29%, we will have an "official" yield curve inversion. This could result from short term yields rising faster than long term yields, or long term yields falling faster than short term yields, or various combinations thereof."

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article62673.html

When logic dictates our manufacturers/exporters have to maintain their competitive advantage through FX , leading into Brexit , today's rate rise just shows our MPC committee are part of project fear .

It also shows G Browns misguided logic in handling over major economic accountability to unaccountable individuals.

Thursday is next month . Retirement making you lose track of time ?

Anyone hoping for a base rate rise next month will be dissappoined .

There must be an alterior reason why FED are raising rates , cause normal folk don't follow their logic

"China’s shock devaluation of the yuan in 2015 provides a good template for what the contagion might look like, according to Robin Brooks, the chief economist at the Institute of International Finance and the former head currency strategist at Goldman Sachs Group Inc. Risk assets and oil prices would likely tumble as worries about growth arise, hitting currencies of commodity-exporting countries particularly hard -- namely, the Russian ruble, Colombian peso and Malaysian ringgit -- before taking down the rest of Asia."

Some folk still think Lloy is impervious to these variables .

"As the world’s largest economies open up a new front in their increasingly acrimonious game of brinkmanship, the consequences could be dire -- and ripple far beyond the U.S. and Chinese currencies. Everything from equities to oil to emerging-market assets are in danger of becoming collateral damage as the current global financial order is assailed from Beijing to Washington."

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-07-20/currency-war-erupts-as-trump-blasts-china-eu-for-manipulating

Lastcall , welcome to the club of the enlightened

"When an indebted infant health-care company in Atlanta wanted to borrow hundreds of millions of dollars to buy a rival in Pasadena, it turned to a lender thousands of miles away in London.

Barclays Plc is helping Aveanna Healthcare LLC get a $221 million loan for its purchase of Premier Healthcare Services LLC, adding to a $900 million debt last year. The deal will push Aveanna’s borrowings to more than 10 times its earnings and leave it with “little room for error,” S&P Global Ratings said.

The proposed loan is among tens of billions of dollars of borrowings that European lenders are arranging for riskier American clients, a business they’re targeting to ease the pain from revenue slumps in other areas. They’re so keen to take market share from their U.S. rivals that even Deutsche Bank AG, the embattled lender that’s giving up much of its Wall Street ambition, has earmarked more funds for such deals.

Now some observers warn that they’re pushing into a borrowing binge that’s spooked some of the world’s biggest money managers and been described by the Bank of England as a risk to financial stability. Increased competition may be enabling companies to borrow more than they should and on increasingly loose terms, say investors and even some inside the banks."

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-07-15/barclays-leads-european-banks-pursuit-of-risky-u-s-debt

History repeating itself !!

7 Yorkshire lads playing for England . Panic over , it is coming home !

Tony , NCCL has peaked . More like share the loss if bought into now

Doesn't look good for DB either .

https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2018-06-28/mario-draghi-can-t-save-europe-this-time

Make your own deductions .

"Europe’s leaders will face an awkward truth when they meet at a crucial summit on Thursday. For much of the past decade they’ve been able to duck difficult decisions, secure in the knowledge that the European Central Bank would step in and fix things. Mario Draghi did this repeatedly, first by providing a backstop to the monetary union and then supporting the recovery via a multi-billion euro bond-buying scheme. “Whatever it takes,” as the ECB president put it.

This time, though, the EU’s mightiest institution may have reached the limits of its powers. Europe faces two new emergencies: Donald Trump’s attacks on the global trading system and the migration crisis. In both cases, there’s nothing the central bank can do other than stand by to react to any financial shock that might ensue.

This month, the ECB made the momentous decision to terminate its net asset purchases at the end of 2018. Economists are still questioning whether it has been too optimistic in judging a string of weak European economic data as merely temporary, and by playing down the risks around Italy’s sovereign bonds. The fear is of a repeat of 2011, when the ECB raised interest rates twice just as the sovereign debt crisis was starting."

"The ranks of hedge fund managers expecting impending market chaos are growing.

Greg Coffey, the former star manager at Moore Capital Management who started trading at his own firm this year, is comparing the turmoil in May to the end of dotcom bubble in 2000. Horseman Capital Management’s Russell Clark, one of the most bearish hedge fund managers in Europe, invoked memories of the financial crisis of 2008 in a letter to clients.

The two managers, among the best-known in Europe, join a growing chorus of investors predicting an end to the decade-old rally in asset prices, as central banks move to normalize policies and the rise of populism threatens trade across the globe. Billionaire George Soros in May warned of a looming financial crisis and an existential threat to the European Union. Crispin Odey has for years expected a market crash and lost money betting on it."

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-06-27/hedge-fund-managers-see-echo-of-2000-2008-crashes-in-markets

My old mucker.

Yesterday I pointed out that that you were Financially and Economically illiterate.

Your misguided reply :-

"john requested clarification on my £1 estimate for Lloyds a total of THREE TIMES. I duly replied with my rational for arriving at that figure and it has been silence ever since from the guy...."

Since the Brexit Ref , Sterling has devalued +10 % , which means FTSE foreign earners such as HSBC and SC can enhance their profits thanks to FX , inflating their price and enhancing FTSE . Your lack of these observations confirms my initial statements . The only way Lloy is affected by FX , is Until recently Russians buying up London property and distorting market across U.K. .Anti money laundering laws have put paid to this distortion , but the problem for Lloy is they have already given 100K's of mortgages on overpriced homes .

If you can't make these simple deductions , my original observations about your mental ability stand !!!

Keep snorting coke , I'll keep climbing mountains .

ATB

Following UKID , this will be DCB and his Remainer friends :-

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=oR1-UFrcZ0k

"The global trade war is about to get worse, as the rules-based system of international commerce is poised to revert to an environment where the strong impose their will upon the weak, according to an internal memo circulated among European Union governments.

The disputes between the U.S. and its closest trading partners are set to escalate “in the coming months, as more unilateral measures are threatened and imposed, leading, in some cases, to countermeasures, or to mercantilist deals,” according to the memo drafted by the European Commission, which manages trade policy for the entire bloc."

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-06-24/eu-said-to-see-trade-apocalypse-nearing-as-it-seeks-wto-revamp

Looks like Trump is going to give you a good spanking . Best remove yourself from Ostrich mode and spend some time doing proper research .

With EU goods going to US subject to WTO tariffs , their biggest market , they're going to get one Almighty shock.

UPON BREXIT , STERLING WILL DROP , THE JOYS OF BEING AN INDEPENDENT CURRENCY ! MAKING OUR GOODS COMPETITIVE IN INTERNATIONAL MARKETS.

THE MPC IN THE ABOVE SITUATION , WILL HAVE NO CHOICE BUT TO HOLD OUR BASE RATE AT .5%

"Which bit of that statement do you dumb brexiteers not understand?"

What we don't understand is how a purveyor of perpetual so called wisdom , is +£130k down in their investments.

Surely , such a lack of foresight should render their advice meaningless.

Remember , for someone with no Financial nouse like yourself , -£130k will only be the tip of the iceberg.

I take it you don't have the Financial knowledge or logic to explain to us why Lloy would be £1 without Brexit .

That explains why your investments are down £130k

At least now everyone knows you're the boards Jester

For the third time , in your deluded wisdom , why would Lloy be £1 without Brexit ? Not a rocket science question