Member Info for john46

I trust you understand the correlation between a 20% overpriced mortgage book , CET1 at ~14% and the implications to Lloy share price . ATB

"66-76p " . We both did agree not that long ago mortgage book was +20% overvalued .Did we not ?

You are wasted as an Olive smuggler .lol

The Russians can't clean their monies in U.K. Any longer , anti money laundering laws have closed those Avenues . They are now cleaning via Greece . If the Greek Gov had any foresight , they would Nationalise any Russian owned assets in c 3 yrs time , it would help their debt crisis and no one would feel inconvenienced , Morally !

"I don't worry about share price movements" You are deceiving folk by your bullish posts and you are not willing to commit to a c9 mth forward guidance price ? You should be ashamed . Some folk on here look up to you , who are going to lose money in the short term . ATB

"Luckily for shareholders that is not the case. I would expect the interim dividend coming up to be increased again by a minimum 10%" In your vast overwhelming knowledge , where do you see share price on UKID ? knowing we're over the peak of the Economic cycle , Global debt is reaching unsustainable levels , Trade friction escalating , DB considering merger with Commerz to mitigate its exposure to Derivatives and Italy planning to shaft EU . It is a simple question !

@Longshort , the market has awoken to the fact Lloy has been lending against overpriced property prices , inflated by Russian money cleansing in London , which has distorted prices across the whole of U.K. Near term 50p is more likely than �1 . Lloy BOD surely must know such Elementary Economic factors , hence why they're suppressing dividend .

Agree 100% with your renewable analogy , but Indias population is 18 times that of U.K. So x8 level of Indian investment is still lower than UKs pp. As a global Society we should /are channelling more resources into renewables , thanks to OPEC , it is now cheaper to create 1KW from renewables than it is from fossil fuels . As a Society , we should not fall into the pitfalls of EU periphery nations , who nationalised solar panels , to enhance tax revenues , and hence de-incentivised folk to fight the Global warming Crusade . Personally , renewables are self financing , the economics stack up , it should be free from Gov intervention that will distort free market forces . ATB

US debt to GDP will increase 5% this yr V 3.3% growth . That is economic shrinkage in my eyes. Next week we'll find out if Sterlings stability is maintained or whether our competitive advantage is enhanced V Euro and Dollar . Q3 trade figures for all 3 currencies should make interesting analysis . Jayfax Just back from Crete . All the waiting and maid staff were Rumanians , on �3/hr , this in a country with +50% youth unemployment . The EU has screwed Greece and the locals know it . No amount of grants or subsidies will make up for a wasted generation . At no stage would I compare any facet of the UK to Greece .

"U.S. economic growth could face a challenging slowdown as the Trump Administration�s powerful fiscal stimulus fades after two years, according to former Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke. Bernanke said the $1.5 trillion in personal and corporate tax cuts and a $300 billion increase in federal spending signed by President Donald Trump �makes the Fed�s job more difficult all around� because it�s coming at a time of very low U.S. unemployment." https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-06-07/bernanke-says-u-s-economy-faces-wile-e-coyote-moment-in-2020 Law of diminishing returns in action

85% of gold is mined at a loss . Old Mutual has further to drop . Asset prices heading South

What is illogical is that Gov debt is looked upon as a safer investment than Gold . Waiting for Gold to drop to $1280 , but could go lower before sensible market forces kick in again . ATB

How illogical is the system . EU QE and Euro is competitive . Wind down QE to zero and Euro becomes less competitive and EU PMI goes South . Logical economic forces at work . Head scratching always leads me to mental invigoration . ECB ending bond buying will bring growth to an end . They will become less competitive . Bond yields will go up forcing Mario to reinstate QE . Debt induced growth , is not REAL growth

Spot on , personally , +10% drop in asset prices brings show to an end

"Don't forget the ECB in buying up and monitising debt and anything that moves - " ECB are purchasing this debt , just like a normal business transaction and acquiring national assets as security . This debt is tangeable . What we have to try and figure is when it reaches critical mass . Troajan You earn more now , than what you purchased your house for . Inflation has negated that debt . The problem we have now , outside U.K. Debt growth outstrips inflation .next top NIRPs . The prudent will get fleeced again

"Debt piles more serviceable " . In the next downturn bond yields will go up and base rates dropped to NIR . It's the electorate that will get shafted . $10 Tn @ 4.9% $20 Tn @ 3.0% Debt piles are not more serviceable going by above stats .

https://tradingeconomics.com/united-kingdom/government-debt-to-gdp You know yourself , Mrs T took on a debt to GDP of 45% in '79 , unheard of since ww2 . By '91 Tories had dropped those shameful statistics to 21% of GDP . There is nothing stopping us , as a nation to emulate such economic wonders , in percentage terms , post Brexit . It is down to us all to come together and make it happen .

Calendar GMT Actual Previous Consensus TEForecast 2018-04-23 09:00 AM Government Debt to GDP 86.7% 89% https://tradingeconomics.com/euro-area/government-debt-to-gdp The above link , correct from April this yr , states EU debt 86.7 % of GDP . Generally, Government debt as a percent of GDP is used by investors to measure a country ability to make future payments on its debt, thus affecting the country borrowing costs and government bond yields. This page provides - United Kingdom Government Debt To GDP - actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news. United Kingdom Public Sector Net Debt to GDP - actual data, historical chart and calendar of releases - was last updated on June of 2018. Actual Previous Highest Lowest Dates Unit Frequency 85.30 82.60 85.30 21.70 https://tradingeconomics.com/united-kingdom/government-debt-to-gdp The above link , live as of June '18 states U.K. Debt to GDP at 85.3 % You are posting misinformation again !

"Economic growth is an increase in the production of goods and services over a specific period. To be accurate, the measurement must remove the effects of inflation." https://www.thebalance.com/what-is-economic-growth-3306014 Folk certainly are being deceived by not incorporating debt into the equation . Anyone can make a coy or nation grow with debt and the outcome is always the same

That's an impressive process IMO . Noisy and I judged the process to be ~200 yes long . You mentioned you were on night shift , so assume you kept the process running with no Senior Management or Engineering backup , some achievement ! I'm of the belief that we can match any German line for productivity and quality , given the chance . The law of diminishing returns applies the more indebted an coy or nation becomes . If the US hadn't raised rates there would have been a run on the Dollar , $1Tn pa doesn't help matters . Tend to agree fiscal stimulus and raising rates , a pointless exercise.