Member Info for john46

Italy's stock market already dropped 23% in the last 5 months . A nightmare by anyone's standards . So can only surmise this correction was already priced into MIB . Looks like Italy will take another good spanking in the next downturn.

Italy's Gov Bonds are one notch above junk . Being in EU saved their skin this time . It poses a grave problem for their Nationalist leaders should they choose to ditch the Euro during their term in power . The cynic in me , tells me ECB might have had a quiet word with Moody's to incentivise the Italians to sort out their act / finances .

@BB , we all know all banks need capital reserves , my logic is that when this debt bubble bursts , there will be an asset price recalibration , wiping out a large proportion of reserves . Lloy will be forced to reboost reserves , which will have to come from buyback and divi .

the CBOC is propping up their stock market , they are distorting free market forces and logic dictates they can only do it for so long . Our help to buy has inflated property prices , distorted the market , compounding the downside when it comes .

As for £1 , as I see it you have 2 options . As Mr Meerkat advised me 2yrs 4 moth ago " average down " , or spend some more time on this BB and try and take on board the wealth of knowledge flying around.

A1 , hang in there bud !

Nokesa , chill

2cv , my EOY forecast is 55p . I anticipate 28p , 2 or 3 yrs from now .

Chinese PI sold $6 Tn of shares in last 2 yrs.

Lti , will see 28p within next 3 yrs

"These errors led Asness to observe, “You can have a committee of 10 geniuses that proves collectively to be a moron.”

https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2018-10-08/the-next-financial-crisis-is-staring-us-in-the-face

ATB all

< 1 yr away , Chinese dumping .

ATB

Where do you see Lloy SP when US 10 yrs reach 5 % yields ? Overwhelmingly intrigued !!

ATB

FED rates , 10yrs yields , equities , no correlation ?

The good thing about US 10 yr notes reaching 5% yields , is you'll be able to pick Lloy up at 28p .

A no brainer

"Foreign demand for another type of Chinese assets will be tested later this week, when the nation markets a sale of dollar bonds."
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-10-08/everyone-s-fleeing-china-stocks-as-foreigners-dump-1-4-billion

@livestock , just making deductions from link . Wouldn't dream of using filter , I believe in free speech .

ATB

@ livestock , Lloy BOD minimising exposure to next crash . "Passing buck ", in everyday jargon .

On the same panel, Salomon Brothers’ Henry Kaufmann (aka Dr. Doom), now 91, made the observation that despite deregulation being a major factor in the crisis, it took less than a decade for many to forget. “A financial market deregulated is like a zoo without bars," he said.

As memories of the crisis fade as the economy recovers, we find the seeds of the next crisis are already being planted. They are the exact same issues of debt and mismanaging risk and not understanding our own limitations. Failing to learn from our prior experiences, we seem doomed to repeat them. We only have ourselves to blame.
https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2018-10-08/the-next-financial-crisis-is-staring-us-in-the-face?srnd=premium-europe

China's demand for commodities should start waning . We know the effect of US rate rises on Gold .

ATB bud !

FOMC , one more rate hike this yr and 4 scheduled for next yr should easily take 10 yrs over 4% and that doesn't price in the $1.3 TN annual budget deficit .

"If there’s one thing the prophets agree on, it’s that the end will come in the bond market. Even for stocks.

Prophesies of doom are everywhere. There’s billionaire investor Stan Druckenmiller, who says our “massive debt problem” will ignite a crisis. Oaktree Capital’s Howard Marks warns that public and private debt will be “ground zero when things next go wrong.” And Citadel’s Ken Griffin, who sees a binge ending badly.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-10-05/all-the-nightmares-for-stock-investors-start-in-the-bond-market?srnd=premium-europe

@Troajan , you finally seeing the light ?

US 10 yr notes broken resistance.

"This withdrawal of liquidity and gradual tightening of monetary policy” is reverberating across financial markets, Bob Baur, chief global economist at Principal Global Investors, said in an interview with Bloomberg Television in Tokyo Thursday. “We look for 10-year Treasury yields to hit 3.5 at some point -- later this year, early next year -- and I think that’s going to be a real problem for stock markets.”

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-10-03/treasuries-slide-asia-stocks-set-to-nudge-higher-markets-wrap?srnd=premium-europe

US budget deficit $1 Tn pa , not to mention their student and vehicle loans . Now you are telling us Jamie Dillon doesn't know the difference between "could and would " .

Obviously you can't see long term implications of Globalisation .

Jamie Dillon has warned the world US 10 yr notes will yield 5% soon . When that occurs the bulk of the world will be in negative interest mode . All banks , pension , hedge funds will want their money back with a view to chasing yield in US debt .The knock on effect is all other asset classes will take a hammering .

Be grateful the lloy BOD carried out the share buyback , with a view to suppressing share price . MINIMISING longterm distress.

The next 4 rate hikes in US are going to cause a recession ,it's a guaranteed fact , so it's pretty damn dumb of Yanks to keep inflating DOW .Some on here still believe lloy is impervious to DOW