Member Info for John2015

M3 replying to John25 spot on !
I will revisit my calculation yesterday as I think I used 13mta and 20 mta NPV figs rather than 10mta and 13 mta hiwever given the 50% discount applied to NPV I don't think the differences will be huge, still confident £1 to £1.50is perfectly feasible once the mine us up and producing with plenty of headtoom if the price of poly4 goes up ( supply and demand suggests it will to me ).
I'll repost a corrected calculation if necessary.

Dinger if you think the project will succeed ( I do ) cheap shares are cheap shares.
Personally I will top up any time I can below my average 25.75p until we finally get take off and I cannot afford to buy any more.
Then I hope to sit back and enjoy the fruits of these trying times.

Trying to build some cash in case.
If you are right then there may well be excellent topup opportunities very soon.
Not selling - but will topup/average down, if I can get the cash and the price is right.

Lets hope any share issue is kept to a minimum. Whatever the main thing is to get on with it as speedily as possible.
I'm sure I'm not alone in wanting to see an end to the repeated long slow rise, news, massive slump which has happened over and over again.
I'm 64 next week and would really like to be young enough to spend and enjoy spending, some of my ill gotten, very hard earned, gains from what should be ( is ) a brilliant investment. GLA long suffering LTH.

Avocet FWIW I agree. It seemed to me that was sort of the point of the update. Raise contingency first by Bonds or if needs musrpt a share raise and the rest follows. The main issue fir me is its all linked and the money men are ductating what happens but if needs must lets just get it done so the oroject ( and all our investments ) mature.
Not happy but some return is better than a never ending roller coaster.

Thanks Fred

IF YOU DISAGREE - EXPLAIN YOUR LOGIC
Allowing for convertible bonds and gina's shares I came up with 5.5bn shares known now.
I made 400m dollars £300m (rounded at 1.3) and 600m dollars £450m same logic.
This gives 1.5 bn shares for £300m @20p or 2.25bn for £400m.
So total could be 5.5bn plus 1.5bn or (for ease if calc) 2.5bn = either 7bn or 8bn shares, if,all contingency is convertible.
Using the finance presentation figures for 10mta ebitda converted to £ we have £17.4bn and 13mta £24.4bn.
Assuming 50% (as you did ? = mcap) not unreasonable with 67% to 80% profit margins this gives an mcap of either £8.7bn @ 10mta or £12.2bn @ 13mta. Dividing these mcaps by 7bn or 8bn shares gives the following (shown as single units for simplicity) £8.7 divided by 7 = £1.09 (10mta) or £12.2 divided by 8 = £1.52 (13mta)
All a bit rough and ready and there may more or less shares in issue but ball park £1.09 to £1.52 when we reach 10 or 13mta is perfectly acceptable IMO.
Let me know your thoughts, any corrections or positive criticism welcome.

SP has spiked at least 3 times in 3 years seems quite likely it will spike again ? May even hold one day.

ANDY SEE MY 14:08.
An sp of £1 to £1.50 looks perfectly feasible once in production.
Not chuffed mysel and down 22% - but if thats what it takes to get to the £1 party I'll grit my teeth and hang in there.

SEEMS FAIR - WONDER WHY THE SMALL GUYS NEVER SEEM TO WIN ?

off the back of the RNS - which while not positive wasn't all bad - getting contingency out of the way first and reducing reliance on HMG guarantees could be seen as positive things is savage and well overplayed. Looking to see the sp bounce now the MM's and Day Traders have had their pound of flesh.
Now 22% in the red on SXX - NEVER SAW THAT COMING.

paaa thanks.

I don't have access to NEX ? How many did you buy? Wish I could.

for 20.01 at 16:05.

13 buys today of over 300,00 shares and 9 of those are over 400,000.
Good luck to those lucky/clever enough to buy way more shares than I have accumulated (230,000) at a figure well below my ave (25.75p). Wish I could add more myself.
Given that these 4m plus shares are part of the over 10m buys above sells, what does it take though to lift this sp ?

Wish I had the cash blew £12k buying at 34p in Sept - could have been 60,000 shares instead of 36,000 !
Annoying.

Scotman see my 14:00 8bn shares (if it happens) still leaves a reasonable sp if my, taufurs - to whom I owe a debt of gratitude and Milord3's calculations are about correct.
i.e between £1 and £1.50 per share when we reach 10mta or 13mta.

M3 your 10:17
Allowing for convertible bonds and gina's shares I came up with 5.5bn shares known now.
I made 400m dollars £300m (rounded at 1.3) and 600m dollars £450m same logic.
This gives 1.5 bn shares for £300m @20p or 2.25bn for £400m.
So total could be 5.5bn plus 1.5bn or (for ease if calc) 2.5bn = either 7bn or 8bn shares, if,all contingency is convertible.
Using the finance presentation figures for 10mta ebitda converted to £ we have £17.4bn and 13mta £24.4bn.
Assuming 50% (as you did ? = mcap) not unreasonable with 67% to 80% profit margins this gives an mcap of either £8.7bn @ 10mta or £12.2bn @ 13mta. Dividing these mcaps by 7bn or 8bn shares gives the following (shown as single units for simplicity) £8.7 divided by 7 = £1.09 (10mta) or £12.2 divided by 8 = £1.52 (13mta)
All a bit rough and ready and there may more or less shares in issue but ball park £1.09 to £1.52 when we reach 10 or 13mta is perfectly acceptable IMO.
Let me know your thoughts, any corrections or positive criticism welcome.

M3 will do - probably late afternoon, as I have to go out for a few hours.

M3 thanks for that calculation, I was just going to attempt one based on taufurs excellent work.
Nice to know there is still plenty of headroom for a decent return even if there are more shares in play.
I will have a go anyway for my own satisfaction - but its great to have a comparison.