The latest Investing Matters Podcast with Jean Roche, Co-Manager of Schroder UK Mid Cap Investment Trust has just been released. Listen here.
No discovery declaration
No confirmed commercial flow rate, as per the RNS =
'An extended well test at site will enable us to confirm commercial flow rates'
Nothing happening until AFTER extended well test in the summer, including a JV
These facts are all clearly stated in the RNS
Take a break, nothing to worry about for a few months
Section regarding discovery
"63.-(1) Where petroleum is discovered in an exploration area, the holder
of licence shall-
(a) within forty eight hours after discovery, submit in writing a
notification of discovery to the Minister and PURA before
submitting such notification to the third party;
(b) submit a draft announcement to the Minister;
(c) not make any announcement with respect to discovery before the
announcement of the Minister;
(2) Upon receipt of the draft announcement submitted under subsection
(1)(b), the Minister shall within five working days after consultation with PURA,
consent on the proposed announcement.
(3) The Minister shall within two working days after being advised by
PURA, make or cause to be made an announcement.
(4) Within a period of thirty days after the date of the discovery, furnish
to PURA particulars in writing of the discovery and within ninety days from the
date of discovery, state whether the discovery merits the appraisal or not"
So you're talking days and not weeks for an announcement to be made if there is an actual discovery. Maybe HE1 have yet to submit an announcement draft ? Maybe they have and its been rejected for the same reason as Noble = no flow, no go
Top tip for investors in OnG plays = know and familiarise yourself with what regulatory body you're abiding too
Glib
As I highlighted earlier
'Basically, the licience holder has to inform the Gov/minister in writing within 48 hours of making the discovery. They then have to submit a draft announcement to the Gov. The Gov then has 5 days to consult with PURA (Petroleum Upstream Regulatory Authority) on the proposed announcement. After consultation with PURA the minister has to within 2 days, either make an announcement OR grant the licience holder to make the announcement
So, is the minister rejecting Nobles claim of discovery, hence no announcement, or have Noble yet to inform the Gov of a discovery etc?
Have HE1 yet to inform the Gov of a discovery? Its 4 weeks since the RNS and nothing. Maybe the Gov has rejected the draft?
Regs are in the group for people to revise. Good stuff about taxation and bonus payments to the Gov etc'
Legal
If they announce a outright discovery, I'm laughing. If they don't and instead give Noble esq waffle and eggs, the SP will spike and then fold. Noble spiked, before the penny dropped and the SP drew back and eventually halved. I've all dersisked, so its all gravy. Whichever way it goes, I make money
Noble, no free gas, no discovery and despite using the same cute words such as 'transformational' as HE1, their SP tanked. So aye, I expect HE1 will do the same, especially after spending 5 weeks building up the expectation of a huge discovery only not to potentially deliver one. I doubt the SP will rocket if that's the case, do you??????? It will spike n fold as is the way of the road with AIM shares
If they announce an outright discovery, then we're laughing all the way to the bank
Either way at 0.25 I'm making money
See, its the sourcing of such information that separates the wheat from the chaff, or should I say, the those who source valued Info and the braindead cutters and pasters
If you want access to valued information/data then join 'The Rig Pig Craic Shack' on Telegram. A nice wee haven where investors in OnG plays, can openly discuss in a civilised manner and more importantly can raise concerns without getting attacked by braindead, cut n paste, rabid rampers!
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They touch on the method during the most recent conference. Basically, the science on paper is good, they just need to build a pilot plant to test the Theory and prove that liquid extraction is feasible and more importantly commercial
I've highlighted some interesting regulations from the Petroluem Act regarding the announcement of discovery and the Tanz Govs involvement...which is a lot
Basically, the licience holder has to inform the Gov/minister in writing within 48 hours of making the discovery. They then have to submit a draft announcement to the Gov. The Gov then has 5 days to consult with PURA (Petroleum Upstream Regulatory Authority) on the proposed announcement. After consultation with PURA the minister has to within 2 days, either make an announcement OR grant the licience holder to make the announcement
So, is the minister rejecting Nobles claim of discovery, hence no announcement, or have Noble yet to inform the Gov of a discovery etc?
Have HE1 yet to inform the Gov of a discovery? Its 4 weeks since the RNS and nothing. Maybe the Gov has rejected the draft?
Regs are in the group for people to revise. Good stuff about taxation and bonus payments to the Gov etc
Cricket
Same here, I'll be more than delighted to be proven wrong, as I'll make a shxt load more money. If I'm right, then I make less money. Either way, I make money
People with a tighter margin however might not be so fortunate
Dream
I'll stress the VERY simple point one last time. Hopefully you'll be able to digest it, this time = IF THEY HAD FREE GAS THEY WOULD OF SIMPLY STATED THAT THEY HAD FREE GAS
1 RNS and 2 interviews HE1 failed to use the term FREE GAS. Its an OnG term. They are not stupid, they understand the context and the use of the term FREE GAS. If they had FREE GAS, they would state FREE GAS, like evert other OnG company that has encountered FREE GAS and even then the FREE GAS might not be flowing at a commercial rate
See how easy it is to write FREE GAS, yet they failed to do so in the non declaration of discovery RNS
Waitaminute
Don't make too much sense or else the rampers will spit their dummies out !!!
Bit seriously, well said. The board has become a echo chamber/frenzy of rampy nonsens. Just as it did at Tai3 abd ironically, 90% of those doing the ramping now, incurred HUGE losses back then, due to refusing to listen to reason
The simple FACT of matter is - if they do not announce an unequivocal, out right, confirmation of discovery in the next RNS and waffle on about liquid extraction etc. Then the SP will head in the same direction as Nobles
Anybody not taking this scenario into consideration, shouldn't be investing in oil n gas plays, its that simple
If they had free gas, they would of simply stated that they had free gas, as every other single exploration company does after encountering free gas
Amen 🙏