Ben Richardson, CEO at SulNOx, confident they can cost-effectively decarbonise commercial shipping. Watch the video here.
Do you see any details of a conference call for Jet2/Dart?
Results are to 31st march, a period that we already have results for TCG. Therefore, we need to focus on the outlook, which isn't much detail at first glance.
Though overall demand for our leisure travel products has continued to strengthen since the start of the new financial year, it is clear from our forward booking trends that generally, less confident consumers are booking later than last year and therefore pricing for both our flight-only and package holiday products has to be continually enticing. Nevertheless, with still some way to go in the booking cycle, the Board remains optimistic that current market expectations for Group profit before foreign exchange revaluations and taxation for the year ending 31 March 2020 will be met.
Bkkbkk,
Can you find on TCGs balance sheet where it states it owns a chain of hotels?
The LMEY JV fund had 5 (five hotels) and the fund were looking to acquire 5 more. TCG owns 50% of the fund.
In May 2018, the Group acquired a 50% interest in Thomas Cook Hotel Investments Limited, a hotel fund focused on acquiring hotel properties across Thomas Cook’s key destination markets, for £60m. Thomas Cook Hotel Investments Limited has subsidiaries in Greece and Spain. The Group’s interest in Thomas Cook Hotel Investments Limited is accounted for using the equity method in the consolidated financial statements. Pg 145 of the Annual Report.
The previous page outlines their other fixed asset investments - apart from aircraft etc it totals £150m net value. (that includes £20m of freehold land, short leasehold land and other assets.
They don't own hotels away from the fund. You complain about rappers and derampers but please desist from posting inaccurate information.
So your livelihood depends on a major supplier whose debt trade at sub 40c in the euro, it is not surprising that they don't take warm words from TCG management. They still have to pay staff and other costs so not surprising they want to use factoring to get money.
This ultimately is my fear, that TCG won't be able to run up large creditors and they have to pay upfront for hotels etc. All this does is moves the working capital swings earlier in the year.
I agree with you on the point you make. But if you put conditions on the sale of the airlines, then you can't expect top dollar for the slots is the point I am making.
The slots are only valuable in one scenario - but in the scenario of selling the airline with guaranteed customers, the slots can not be valued in line with previous liquidation values. (the values of slots mentioned are from assets been sold in liquidation).
So if you think, as I do, any sale of airline will have conditions, why does this board insist on talking about slot value?
You sell the slots there is no airline business. Because they need slots to operate.
But the problem with selling the slots for top dollar is you have no slots to bring your customers to the hotels.
So this is the reason why you can't sell the slots for top value
As do I, yours.
Generally, posts that have structure with either links to external sources and/or some analysis I find very helpful. I try (although don't always succeed) staying away from personal attacks and I find information I gleem from these boards useful in other company analyse.
Happy investing all
Ive had constructive discussion with Sfletcher78 and another poster on here. You less so to be honest.
8 new programmes have had very little if any cash cost and some would equate it to moving the deck chairs on the ...........
Can you quantify any cash outlay the Company has spend of these 8 new programmes you mention? Read the whole post and you will see I dismiss the article for its inaccuracies as bondholders won't trigger a default. (Not possible).
It is apparent that we both have differing views on the Company - but you should welcome differing views as I do.
People I talk to.
Take my post in two parts - I corrected a negative spin the mail article for an inaccuracy. Bondholders won't trigger a default. I also believe the banks won't either as it is so value destroying.
So what is the possible negatives. And I think it is the Board of directors, if they become concerned about the solvency of the Company. I still worry about the level of suppliers at September level and if we will see that magnitude this September.
The article in the Mail is misquoting (I think) The Bondholders have no right to call in the debt and trigger the situation where TCG are unable to pay. The bonds have very specific conditions but none of them are likely to be triggered.
The issue many analysts are fearing is that the Company is insolvent - i.e. don't have enough short term cash to meet its short term obligations. This will centre on the working capital and the creditors (namely suppliers - hotel operators etc) they build up over this active season. Cash is generated in this period and is usually sufficient to meet the outflow of cash in Oct-December quarter. However Dec 2018 debt was £1,588m (£292m worse than Dec 2017). and if they have a similar year the additional £300m facility could be fully used.
The directors would then have to ask if they can continue running the business unless outlook improved.
There are reasons to think the outflow won't be as bad, due to less SDIs (as defined by Company Separately disclosed Items) but they will not want any deterioration in the operations.
It will likely be the directors who will determine the Company can't cope with its debt levels and seek some debt forgiveness/debt for equity deal.
The banks are unlikely to pull the plug as an event of default will trigger the loss of ATOL license which would destroy value for all stakeholders.
Quisty,
Posters have been writing a lot of crap about Lufthansa, but I have never rated them as a buyer. I am negative on the airline segment and the airline segment has got worse since February. I don't see airline been sold at all frankly.
If Q3 is flat or marginally positive versus Q3 last year, it won't change my view that the business is fundamentally unprofitable. Q4 is by far the biggest quarter. Maybe shouldn't have said ignore, but wouldn't put big weigh on the numbers either. Guidance will be difficult and remembrr guidance was ok in July last year and they reaffirmed in mid September and then screwed up more by end of September, so I will take guidance with a pinch of salt.
I am a strong seller of the name, even at these levels.
Heatwave is negative for German and UK business (mildly positive for Nordics as they are unseasonably colder at moment).
I do find it funny the amount of crap people write. If they write a thesis with some supporting facts like what you have written it adds value. It is not a surprise I am short but appreciate and it is helpful to get recaps like this.
I don't hope anyone to lose their investments and I think I have (nearly) always been fair and backed up my claims with supporting facts.
I never believed Lufthansa would be able to buy from a competition authority frame point, so them leaving the bidding field is not a negative in my book. The overall profitability in the European sector is a negative.
In relation to Triton that is a positive. No doubt about that.
I don't put much weight on the Q3 numbers. Q3 is rarely that important and the focus of the market on operations side will be any guidance on bookings for Q4 and any movement in working capital normal swings. the profitability is all in Q4 and we won't get update on that.
If you look at last years presentation you will see impact of the "lates" had on margin. And that won't be visible at this time.
(can you please provide me with the news story re the unions)
Bigwigs - where is your proof they are buying the debt - if they were the market for the bonds would have moved upwards.
As I said before I think the pension deficit is a red herring. (am short but think using the pension deficit as a negative is incorrect).
The UK pension is in surplus, albeit there is a small (c£10m payment in FY19 and FY20 for pension equalisation - am open to correction on amount and timing, it might be FY18 & FY19) bu apart from that it is in surplus.
German pension funds are always in deficit - Lufthansa should know this - theirs is north of €5bn, but if you pay the relevant taxes and contributions the state provides the pension.
Am off to ask a German national on this but find the pension comment by CFO of Lufthansa very strange.
Thanks for that - appreciate it
Sfletcher,
Would TCG not still need bonding in the UK for its UK customers if it is owned by Fosun. Doesn't TUI, German owned, still operate under ATOL?
Genuine question.
Would you need advisers if this was positive news? I.e. if Fosun was taking it over, then ATOL would not need advise.
It could be a part sale of the Tour Operator, say Nordic business, and needs approval.
.............Or the negative side is an option (which no one is in any doubt of my views).
Sfletcher - can you help me - I didn't know it was the law you needed to be bonded to sell a package holiday - I thought you just had to be clear to state it wasn't bonded. See the attached article stating they are not illegal? Am I missing something?
http://www.travelweekly.co.uk/articles/324611/agents-hit-out-at-suppliers-rewarding-non-bonded-agents
No need for name calling. So I have a different opinion that yours. (referring to Castleford Tiger) but could you not say that in reverse?
Pione3r,
Not a bored bean counter - am short the bonds and the equity. I have an agenda - doesn't everyone, but I have tried to keep the conversation civil and tried to back up my points of view with relevant points from verified published documents.
Not sure what point you are making re other indebted companies - I don't mind debt at all, as long as there is sufficient earnings and cashflow to deal with it. I don't think there is in TCG.