Member Info for Jiving

If there is gonna be a movie MK, who do we want to play Arthur?

Spot on NoEasy. Arthur has repeatedly given us false timetables since the autumn 2017 podcast. The situation actually got worse after Essar objected (it appears you were almost alone in being told 'near truth') and many of us were told a deal was imminent when there was actually zero chance without resolving Essar first. The anger investors feel is not that no deal took place, but that we were clearly & deliberately repeatedly mislead in public & in private. Arthur I dont think will ever accept that it it was his behaviour that created the investor backlash.

Whatever, now Essar has cut a deal & we are back on the road hopefully we can get a resumption of normal investor updates from him. I cant see it being possible from a legal/regulatory perspective or even a practical one for him to make any podcasts until key events - PSC, Essar contract, debt for equity swap - have taken place. Then we need an explanation of how it all plays out.

The prospects for a successful drill of OPL226 have done a 180 degree turn in the last 3 weeks. The market is slow to recognise that. The last 3 dismal years have destroyed the share price & equally importantly confidence in the company.

The positive news will continue & at some stage in the next couple of weeks the market will see that even a market cap of say £20m, where many small oilers lurk prior to a drill (minimum level some way higher), is where we should be once our news is confirmed. On 3.5b shares thats 0.57p.

Yesterdays RNS was hopefully the first of a series of RNS's confirming more details of the Essar deal & eventually ending with a financial package that is not horrifically dilutive.

When the RF deal was announced in May it was 'great' only because it saved us from possible/likely bankruptcy. In other circumstances it was horribly dilutive as was the debt for equity swap for our liabilities, which were nearly C$2m to end Dec 2019 alone plus another 5 months building up - ie a big figure leading to massive dilution. The Essar deal has changed our position 180 degrees, Arthur is now in a position to structure & launch an equity or equity related transaction with positive 'actual' news behind him & into a rising share price. The result for existing shareholders should be dramatically reduced dilution & therefore significantly better returns ahead. And there is more to come in the next few weeks.

From what I can see in reality Essar's case had all the merit. Shorecan essentially committed to put $80m into Essar Nigeria to move OPL226 forward in return for 80% of the equity in OPL226. Perhaps they intended originally to do that, and IF Liberia had worked COPL would have had the ability to raise that & do that. But once Liberia totally failed, COPL was just a shell that could barely pay its monthly costs let alone dream of coughing up $40m. So it looks to me like all our 'problems' with Essar have essentially been, that we never coughed up the money due & clearly never had the ability to do so. All the lies & nonsense we have been told over the last 2 years have simply been trying to cover up the simple 'guilty' fact, Essar was always in the right.

All pertinent points Ploppy and all thoughtfully expressed. Arthur has frankly been indifferent (at best) to shareholders & their interests for the 3 years I have been invested here - we need a 180 degree change in attitude & approach. COPL employees & third parties roped into the debt for equity swap, will now all become large shareholders with a serious stake in the share price & its future. Maybe that will be another factor forcing a more investor friendly Arthur, who starts managing the news/RNS cycle to best 'help' the share price & uses podcasts to sell the company's prospects & not give us highlights from his career history.

I also hope for a placing rather than Riverfort. We have 2 pieces of critical price-moving news before we need to announce finance. The price could hopefully be in 0.30-0.50 range, a placing would then make dramatically more sense than the Riverfort deal. Given the dire circumstances we were in when Riverfort was announced, it was a life saver but the Essar deal has changed everything & I would expect brokers are once again knocking on Arthur's door offering placings.

COPL an 'honourable company', hmm really, what have I missed the last 3 years?

Bob. I agree with you, given the company's 3 year history of disappointment, it is too much to hope for an instant 180 degree change in investor sentiment. It will come hopefully with a series of 'delivered' RNSs on PSC extension, final legal agreement with Essar & whatever financing package is needed to take us to first oil. Until those RNSs arrive I can't see Arthur being able to do a useful podcast as there would be too many areas he couldn't comment on.

I dont keep anyone on LSE filter for all the reasons listed below. I impose my own mental 'moron filter' of just passing over posts & posters that are of no value to me.

I am thinking the same thing NoEasy. IMO if we get our 15% of OPL226 & its a working oil field we then have the revenue flow to fund a field where we have 40-50%. My hunch is that Liberia was supposed to fund OPL226 & the $40m but of course Liberia flopped & we couldn't cough up $40m. Moz I have never hear anything positive about for the last 18 months, the 'security' situ there, including in Maputo is dire. I think our next hope has yet to come, & frankly should be in Nigeria to capitalise on Kola's position.

Excellent summary NoEasy, just what we needed.

Has anyone put the GC Oncology deal to Dan & said why isnt this us? I note is was signed on 26 March so realistically it was likely wrapped up weeks/months before then between GC & Kissei, when CV19 was not causing significant problems/ shutdowns. Lawyers will have taken a few weeks to finalise contracts.

Mitch totally agree with you regarding Jay's postings they were pertinent & very useful, I had not seen the articles & they added to my background knowledge. Useful posts especially when you compare them with the pages of drivel you all too often get in LSE forums.

Glen is I agree is likely an obstacle not an asset & perhaps they know that. ZIOC's focus on non-Chinese, lower cost routes to market opens up the resource to a far larger group of purchasers - the Aussies obviously, Chinese corporations outside the state sector & other interested parties. Do other major iron ore users want the world's last Top 10 iron ore deposit grabbed by their Chinese competitor or by the current Brazilian-Australian duopoly. Think Japan & South Korea, both commercial rivals and often political rivals to China.

Rift. That was a great statement, we had our differences in the past but I respect you & your message. 10 out of 10 mate!

I am not a trader & dont pretend to be but the play we have seen here today is so obvious & predictable. MMs & other traders short, push it down, scare out the loose holders & buy back. Money for old rope, 20% in 2-3 hours. But is not about 20%.

I am seeing 2.9m traded on investing.com with 2.37m left on the ask at 0.05c showing on thecse.com
Thats pretty high volume by Canadian standards and leaves a relatively small number on teh ask.

Yep NoEasy your call of no progress with Essar settlement was right. The % we will end up with is similar to the Exxon deal in Liberia & our share price sure did well in the run up to that.

Baserite, good to see the LTH are all on board, that's my view exactly. Shorecan was going to have to give up a big chunk of the OPL226 to 'alt finance' strategic investors basically that has gone back to Essar instead. IMO we are back where we would have been if Arthur had announced his terms end January with the strategic investors.

Been a long time since COPL was top of LSE Risers. More to go from here, its going to take a while for the froth to clear & the value seekers to move in & replace the traders.

We have still got the prospectus to come. And also hopefully some hard hitting interviews spelling out the upside. We have gone from near bankrupt to near term producer on a giant oil field. The price is going to have to come to terms with that over the next few days, but we have a long way to go on the upside to represent the value of our interest. There must be a rationale for comparing our situation now to that before the Exxon drill 3.5 years ago. ie for sure its worth more than a market cap of £6m.