Member Info for Jiving

Extrader, miners usually develop multiple mines that could be deemed to be in 'competition' with their existing mines, but in truth they are seeking to supply a growing, changing market. Even if you added a generous annual production figure for Zanaga to FMG's production it would still be smaller than its main competitors.

I realise interpretations of course can differ on what their motivation was re-Simandou bid but potentially they were gaining insight into how the Chinese & others intended to operate in the African iron ore business.

FMG did not include the railway in their bid, but it is not clear what other infrastructure/development costs were included in the $9b bid.

I wouldn't be here if I didnt think it was undervalued. By how much is the question.

99icecream - Why does the market currently value half of Zanaga in the form of ZIOC at around £24 million? If someone was prepared to pay between £750-1200 million for our 50% that would represent an amazing return from the current market valuation, of course I hope for more. The FMG bid for Simandou I believe included a substantial quantity towards development costs, the figure for the actual mine itself is not clear.

The neatest FMG solution would surely be to make an offer for 100%. GLEN want out, ZIOC shareholders would presumably be OK with a price £2.50-4.00 (equating to a price of $2-3 billion for the whole mine). FMG know how to build & run vast iron ore operations a big plus from everyone's perspective. With the current iron ore price their equity is at an all time high & their cashflow must be incredible. With one successful iron ore miner in charge there would be nothing to stop them parcelling out % of the project to Chinese infrastructure companies, Chinese miners, whoever.

Frankly I would rather have a smaller % in a project run by a financially strong, industry specialist as majority owner than a bigger % of a project run by a JV committee of 3,4, 5 partners.

Worth noting they hit an all time high today of A$14.80. That makes their mkt cap A$45b or US$30b. If we work on the basis that a BO of Zanaga could be currently in the region of US$2-3b, at the top end of that range it could be purchased by an equity placing of around 10% of FMG share capital.

This misconceived shake-out is quickly coming to an end. It was a great RNS - we are firing on all cylinders. The NSB news was history & really who hadn't written it off among LTH? Perhaps there were punters in expecting a Kissei announcement or the confirmed NXP004 results & sold when it wasn't in the RNS?

Lost in the selloff, is the great news of a new, revenue generating collaboration with VistaGen. Confirmation again that NFX 's co-crystal expertise is recognised amongst its peers in the Biotech industry - even if not yet with P & D merchants.

Revenue coming in from Ebers & now a new revenue stream coming in from VistaGen. The crucial NXP002 talks in Japan are continuing & are positive, but of course CV19 has disrupted & delayed them. But crucially they have not ended! NXP004 outperforms existing treatments in lab tests - great that shows every sign of being the next NXP002. We look to be on the verge of having two big hitters.

Summary - we now have not 1 but 2 current revenue generators via JVs with Ebers & VistaGen - right so no more dilutive equity issues & obvious upside in the future outside of our NXP*** programme. One key high value patent is proceeding rapidly to the next stage & a new patent is getting great lab results. Should be 10p+ not 5p, lets see where this settles at the end of the day.

Meet the desperate shorter, who has just realised he was played.

Bob thats how I read it as well. And quite possibly the Prospectus has never been in doubt but MMs have played uncertainty to get cheap stock, and after that disastrous interview it was an open goal.

I am quite impressed by the bid price holding at 6.0 when that has been quite a few chunky sells coming through.

Well I would be happy with a buyout or JV. But my preference is for a JV, because only by retaining an interest through the development stages of the project do we maximise our return. If we retained an interest right the way through to 30m tonnes, ZIOC would become the mother of all income shares.

At the moment ZIOC/Glencore hold 100% of the deposit, that is quite a powerful card to hold given its the last remaining Top 10 global iron deposit. Its not just the Chinese that will be sniffing around, the possibility exists that we may have competing offers, with potentially non-Chinese development partners bidding as well. If we get to a competitive situation then ZIOC and/or Glencore can hold out for a JV if that is where maximum advantage lies.

Well a China boycott would certainly help ZIOC. There are already v strained relations between Aus-China, the Chinese will be concerned about the long term supply of Aus iron ore in the worst circumstances. That plays to ZIOC & Zanaga's status as the last remaining available Top 10 global iron ore deposit. Chinese commercial interest in Zanaga is quickly becoming a Chinese strategic necessity. What Xi & the Politburo decide, happens.

I bought two lots today via the LSE auction both at less than my bid price. Its been a strange market, last night none available even at above the ask/offer price as of the 16.30 auction. Hopefully its incoming news & positive.

Ploppy. I gather a second interview is expected this week. Good list, why don't you send them to Arthur at his company email & ask him to try to cover those points?

NoEasy. I think our CEO might potentially have a good excuse re public comment on Essar, in that you dont make public comments when you are involved in a lengthy/delicate legal dispute. However, I believe a legal workaround now exists (that did not exist say a year ago) & that led to serious discussions with strategic partners & a Service Provider that 'nearly' resulted in an OPL226 financing deal in February. I see no reason why that workaround would not continue to exist, as Rob & others have pointed out, arranging project finance meets the obligations of the Essar Nigeria shareholders agreement & invalidates any legal claims. It also of course leads to the Minister's signature on the ownership changes.

Looking for a rationale why EM suddenly threaten a lawsuit again in April. Think of CV19 & the effects its going to have on revenue across the oil industry, particularly on heavily indebted entities like Essar. They might have been able to take on any extra debt obligations in January but not in April, hence reviving the threat of a lawsuit to try to delay it.

NoEasy. I have a different theory regarding the Ruia's actions. They have completely wrecked any chance of getting the OPL226 licence back in Nigeria, I understand they have been told that by the Nigerians. So IF it is the case that they cant get the licence back why are they wrecking the project finance for OPL226, when they have 20%. And 20% of something generating revenue is better than 100% of nothing. My conclusion - its not about getting back OPL226.

IMO this is all about any debt that may be attached to Essar's ownership of OPL226. We know they leverage up on debt on all their operations, which is why they have had ongoing problems with debt restructuring. What if they took out a loan, back when they were a good credit risk, against the OPL226 development. Typically that loan would carry a guarantee from a substantial Essar subsidiary, maybe the holding company. As its attached to an oil development project, interest may rollup until production begins. Now there are likely debt covenants that specify the loan becomes repayable IF Essar formally lose majority ownership of OOPL226. Now that actually only formally happens when the Minister signs the transfer, which has not actually happened yet but would do so on successful project financing.

So they did the deal with Shorecan originally because they feared the Nigerians would take away the licence, forcing the attached loan(s) to be repayable by the parent company. The Shorecan deal gave them a breathing space when ownership was not finally irrevocably lost until a deal was done & the Minster formally signs the ownership change. The longer they can delay deal completion the more time they have before the loan becomes repayable.

The drop looks overdone to me. The traders who jumped on board in the hope of a quick deal have exited.

The threat of bankruptcy has been removed by the 2 year agreement. It means dilution but thats the reality, we did well not to have any more placings between November & now - once the money runs out its a placing or bankruptcy. I understand there is another interview coming that will hopefully address how we go forward.

Shorecan was set up as a Bermudan company as apparently that is the best tax jurisdiction for an international oil producer. So that is its longstanding domicile and Essar chose to file against Shorecan not Shoreline/COPL, so needs to be served there.

Riverside is primarily invested in unlisted as well as listed companies, so we dont know the full story of their portfolio. They focus on natural resources so surprise surprise in the current market some of their investments are down.

Its noticeable you began posting on this board today. You have only posted negative slants - typically the sign of a short talking his book. I take 'Longside' to be ironic.