Member Info for Jiving

Groover I am looking at the worldometers statistical toll for Nigeria & it shows 603 new cases for 4 July, the 28,000 is for total confirmed cases since it all began. You can see this here:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/nigeria/

And from the Nigeria Centre for Disease Control (NCDC) twitter:
https://twitter.com/NCDCgov/status/1279544410632605700

Bladderman. IF COPL via Shorecan is seeking to register for the new licences then we should get official news quite soon. The Nigerian DPR says the announcement of prequalified applicants for the new fields will be announced on Sunday 12 July. If we are among them I would assume we would get an RNS shortly afterwards detailing this, perhaps as early as Monday 13 July.

CDN. I agree with all your sentiments & share them. I think Mozambique has come to full stop, and the company is looking for another opening. We don't actually know if COPL has joined Shoreline in registering for the process, but its likely we will know by Monday 13 July. The reality is this is the first Nigerian license bidding process for 13 years, for a relatively small small registration fee we can participate in oil fields of interest. As many of these are potentially producing fields raising finance may be a lot easier. IF we are trying to participate, we are a long way from requiring substantial investment, the process of deciding winning bids takes till year end. It strikes me as a low cost investment that could be very useful 1-2 years out & its in Nigeria, with Kola, not Upper Volta. IF the £500k second placing was for this, it was about a 4% dilution, I can live with that.

I agree Arthur needs to focus on OPL226. But the simple practical reality is the Nigerians are holding their first license bidding process for 13 years. You either participate now or not at all, Shoreline according to the press is participating, so it may make sense for COPL to join them in bidding for some of the licences. This is initially only registering & submitting plans, no results will be made public till the end of the year. It makes a lot more sense for COPL to pursue potential opportunities in Nigeria than elsewhere in Africa, the key is Kola. Any serious financial and resource commitments would be for 2021 & beyond, i.e possibly when we have oil flowing!

NoEasy. Mr.P. Yes the 'new' licences are so called 'marginal' rather than exploratory which potentially makes some of them potential lower risk, near term producing wells. As they were previously 'indigenously' held by Nigerians to foster the local industry it is a stipulation that bidders must be 'indigenous'. For whatever reason, previous licence holders - due to lack of expertise, lack of capital, misjudgements - have failed to utilise them properly.

I see the name Shoreline mentioned among others. The way it works is that an indigenous bidder is allowed to bring in international partner (s) up to 49%, so IF we are bidding it will be via Shoreline & Kola. IF it is the case it shows the value of the Kola connection again & as we know the NNPC are comfortable with both Shoreline & COPL, it must bode well should we be bidding. 57 licences, total registration costs of around $115k per licence I have seen mentioned.

Key Date = 12 July announcement of prequalified applicants. Payment from 13 July onwards.

Bob. Second placing was an unwanted nightmare that bought back all the 'Bad Arthur' memories, just when we had hoped he had turned a new leaf. But it was either necessary to meet financial obligation for the 10 July PSC/Essar schedule OR its related to the payment of the registration fees (payment due shortly) for the huge batch of new Nigerian licences that are being offered for the first time in I believe 13 years. IF its the latter that could mean some additional positive news later in the summer.

Baserite. Totally true & the AM credibility deficit has not been helped by the timing & manner of the recent placing RNSs. But we still are in a way better place than we were at the end of May, we still would have had to pay off $2m debt (1.75b @ 0.07p), and raise finance continually at around 0.07p or less.

So we are in a way better place & have a clear deadline of 10 July for the critical Nigerian PSC extension & then hopefully simultaneously or soon after signing of the new JV contract with Essar.

Thanks for that comment Berta. I checked to find what "1 Darcy' means & found this, which I am sure will be useful for others: https://oilfieldteam.com/en/a/learning/Permeability

A permeability of one darcy is usually much higher than that commonly found; consequently, a more common unit is the millidarcy, where:
1 darcy = 1000 millidarcy's
A practical oil field rule of thumb for classifying permeability is:
poor to fair = 1.0 to 15 md
moderate = 15 to 50 md
good = 50 to 250 md
very good = 250 to 1000 md
excellent = 1 darcy

MisterP. The YA & RGO had the right to subscribe for £100k each (33m shares each or 66m total), but were due to receive commissions & possibly some expenses which it appears they deducted this from the amount they subscribed so ended up buying just 38.5 million between them or £115k between them. So in fact YA only ended up with 19.25m shares. This si clear in yesterdays RNS.

Originally all unsecured creditors (suppliers, staff etc) were going to be swapped @ 0.07p. Thankfully that arrangement which would have meant around 1.75 billion shares being issued has been replaced by a new agreement leading to the issuance of 411 million shares to them @ 0.3p to clear up the balance sheet. This has NOTHING whatsoever to do with YA or anybody else. the company has not yet finalised these negotiations as was made clear at the end of yesterdays RNS "The Company intends to settle these agreements in the coming days."

Clearly anyone who pretends that the 411 million shares are about to be sold into the market by YA is deliberately misleading people, & deliberately misrepresenting yesterdays RNS.

The 411m has NOTHING to do with YA, but is entirely for the debt to equity swap, which is not yet formally agreed here from yesterdays RNS :

". ..the Company has reserved 411,326,189 common shares in the capital of the Company to be allocated for the settlement of debts to its unsecured creditors, accrued unpaid wages to its employees and the secured Promissory Note due to its CEO at the Placing Price."

YA & Riverfort subscribed for a total of 38.5 million between them or 19.25 million each. Here from yesterdays RNS:

"..being 38,500,000 to YA II PN, Ltd ("YA") and Riverfort Global Opportunities PCC ("RGO") as shares in lieu of cash for fees, and interest of 12.5%, pursuant to the loan agreement ("Loan Agreement").."

YA were only in for £100,000 @ 0.3p. Which was 33m, in fact from yesterday's RNS it would appear after YA & Riverfort received their commission they only purchased 38.5m shares between them or 19.25m shares each. The big unnamed investor took £1m - we have no idea who that is or what their investment horizon is.

The debt for equity swap shares are still being negotiated so cannot currently be sold on the market we also dont know whether there are sale conditions attached to those shares. So IMO there is quite possibly no genuine overhang in the market but the MMs are playing it as if there were.

He played the same game with COPL yesterday. Nasty piece of work, working for shorts maybe?

Well 2.75m traded in Canada so far today!

Baserite. Quite right! It turns out that guy Nickel_Investor who posted at 6.33, is heavily invested in UKOG & BOIL - both of which are not exactly doing well at present. Whether he is posting out of chagrin at being in the wrong oil stocks or desperately trying to de-ramp us to get money flowing into them, he is clearly not a COPL shareholder!

Absolutely nuts a 20% drop over a 4.4% dilution, that leaves us in a stronger financial position & likely indicates the PSC/Essar JV negotiations are coming to fruition on schedule. I have been here 3 years, so I absolutely appreciate the depressing effect placings have on shareholders. However this time we have good reason to suspect the latest small raise is part of the complex negotiations going on with the NNPC & Essar, which we know have to be completed by 10 July.

We are literally 11 days maximum, away from huge company changing news that would make COPL part owners of a huge, new, world-class oil field(s). We saw the pattern after the first placing on the 23rd, MMs push the price down forcing out weak holders, then investors begin re-focus on the prize, & not the placing. Then the price within a couple of days starts testing 0.50p. How soon before we get there this time - Wednesday?

Its a crazy reaction, a long term investor who has now put £1 million into the COPL story in a week. I take that as a BIG vote of confidence in our future. They will shortly have to declare their holding, as over 5%. IMO its the MMs trying it on to shake weak holders out. Its likely Arthur needed funds in a hurry to meet contract requirements regarding either the PSC extension or the new Essar JV agreement. It actually likely means things are progressing fast towards a successful outcome by 10 July, so its net positive!

Thats my thinking Bob, as the detailed negotiations with NNPC & Essar have progressed its become clear COPL has to chip in. As we have a clear deadline of 10 July, Arthur had to grab the funds ASAP via a supplementary placing tied into the main investor in the previous placing & on the same terms. Shares listed on Friday. I expect news later next week, hopefully before Friday.

We know the Essar JV including Shorecan is negotiating for an extension with NNPC, with an announcement due by Friday 10 July. Other extensions have been provided by the NNPC at a cost, i.e an additional extension fee is required, this could be the case here & we may need to pay our share. Alternatively the NNPC may want clear proof the Performance Bond is fully funded, and Shorecan have to cough up their % before an extension is granted. Either way it strikes me Arthur may have had a sudden need for additional capital with a very close date in mind, hence the only quick solution of an additional raise from an eager investor at the previous placing price.

Seems highly unlikely the investor will be selling into the market, so no real reason for the selloff, indeed if we are raising to meet NNPC conditions it means we are close to a deal & an RNS. I believe the disclosure level for foreign incorporated LSE listed companies is 5%, so we should find out the identity of the investor shortly. If it is either an industry investor or an institutional investor its again positive news as it may attract in others, and it is going to be institutional money that eventually starts driving us higher.

Interesting rationale Guerillainvestor. But I would expect our mkt cap to also begin to appreciate that once one rig hits oil, we can 'go forth & multiply' & potentially have 6, 8, 10 rigs across the OPL226 field/fields. So the mkt cap after first oil, should begin to not simply reflect the economics of one producing rig, but the potential that lies ahead of incrementally adding new rigs.

Given we had a placing at 0.30p on Tuesday, I think we are doing pretty well to be roughly 50% up by Friday. The only way is UP.