Member Info for Jiving

Well somebody's optimistic the Offer is at 7.0p, MMs anticipating a rush of buy orders on the RNS?

The last PSC extension was reported in the COPL November 2018 MD&A, this is the quote:
"On October 2, 2018, the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation (‘NNPC’) granted a conditional approval of a twenty four months extension for the Phase-1 exploration period until October 1, 2020."

Thats an important link Tiburn as it means the NNPC dispute with China Oil (CNOOC) is now history, which will be the green light for Chinese investment back into Nigerian oil assets. With an oil price around $40 the Nigerian Govt is desperate for increased oil revenue - which can ONLY come from increased production - hence OPL226 PSC is a matter of 'when'.

Its only 2 weeks ago that we were trading @ 0.35p. Since then we have had an RNS confirming we are not in danger of losing the license, just there 'may' be some delay announcing the extension of the PSC. The fall was irrational & is in the process of reverting back to the mid 30's.

Its quite possible we could still get PSC by Wednesday 30 September.

Thats the key, the false narrative put about that we might not get the PSC or even lose the licence, is plain manipulation that sadly seems to have caused this to go below the 0.30's. This plus Caw Caw's great find on the big management buy last week, from someone who has never put money down before in all his time with the company, shows we are moving slowly but surely towards PSC & first drill.

All these sailing analogies but who plays Captain Pugwash?

Yep thanks Jay for reminding us we are finally on our way to be de-risked with a status change from explorer to small producer no longer dependent on placings for working capital. Arthur will be looking for new opportunities from a stronger base than he has had for 10 years.

Extrader, I have no idea what Glencores strategy is vis a vis Zanaga. They are shy of new mining ventures but don't appear to have proactively marketed the mine to potential developers for a sale. Looking back over old ADVFN posts that has been the situation ever since Glencore took over Xstrata. Of course I 'hope' there is some change, but realistically can there be until Glasenberg's successor takes over?

Glencore puts entire stake in Mopani on the table in talks with Zambia - sources - Reuters:
https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-zambia-mining-glencore-exclusive/exclusive-glencore-puts-entire-stake-in-mopani-on-the-table-in-talks-with-zambia-sources-idUKKBN25N2S4

Guitar the deadline we are complaining about is the extension of Q2 filing deadline RNS'd on 17 August. This stated COPL would be filing on the 31 August. This self imposed deadline was missed & anew one set for 14 September, which may or may not be met. The nonsense is that the regulatory deadline for filing is 28 September - so why set two unnecessary & self imposed deadlines, one of which they failed to meet? This is nothing to do with the PSC, NNPC & Essar, but everything to do with the odd notion of COPL arbitrarily setting two deadlines that were not required by either Canadian or UK authorities - why?

Ploppy, others. The frustrating thing about this missed deadline was it was a voluntarily imposed deadline, which he did not have to make. As if we don't have enough market negativity from countless real & important deadlines that were missed. We employ not one but two sets of IR merchants & have the worst investor relations strategy on either the LSE or the CSE.

Hi extrader

I think we may be essentially in agreement but at cross purposes over timing. I have no issue with the non existent dilution of the last 9.5 years or with the small scale dilution currently needed to keep going. My sole concern is IF we do not make progress, either a JV or a full buyout, during the current iron ore rally (say the next nine months) that we may be stuck for a long period where annual placing/dilution is the only means of staying solvent. That is the possible future dilution I wish to avoid. So short term dilution to provide working capital - fine; dilution as part of a JV deal - fine. But dilution because we missed the iron ore price rebound & in order to spend another 9-10 years producing studies - not fine.

I think it is great news from a shareholder perspective that Clifford has such a large stake and that most senior staff take shares rather than cash. So long they/we take advantage of the current iron ore price to get a deal all will be well. But we do not know how long this window of opportunity will last - ZIOC floated @ 156p when iron ore was around $180, with the share price rising to around 220p. A few years later in 2016, iron ore had collapsed to around $40 & the ZIOC share price was under 2p.

Yep extrader the original fund raise from the IPO in 2010 has lasted us till this Spring, almost a decade. I was specifically looking forward to the next decade when we would have no IPO largesse to keep us going & we would be like eery other explorer constantly raising annual expenses via placings at ever lower prices. That when dilution would finally destroy any upside for shareholders.

If they cant realise value by their own actions the BOD need to auction our % of Zanaga - it fetches whatever it fetches. No more slurry pipe projects, forgotten pelletisation nonsense, floating port proposals etc etc. Iron ore is at a near term high, China sniffing around, Aussie miners looking overseas - lets see who will pay what for the project. Its now or never, another decade assing around with massive dilution, wont get a better price.

Desperation has forced through some important changes to make Nigeria more hospitable to foreign investment, particularly from the majors. This is important for both eventual cash flow from OPL226 & a possible future sale. As the article points out previous reform bill's have failed but this looks likely to pass.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-nigeria-oil-exclusive/exclusive-nigerias-long-awaited-oil-reform-bill-to-go-to-president-sources-idUSKCN25E205

Hi Extrader

Its clear FMG are shopping around the world & this is a strategic decision driven by Forrest himself who is publicly making the running. As the entrepreneur who built FMG, & still I believe a holder of circa 1 billion shares, my hunch would be IF Forrest decides upon a target there wont be much internal opposition.

Afghanistan smacks of desperation: as you point out its stuck in the middle of nowhere, with a never ending civil war. I appreciate our government is not great & logistics are trying but when you compare with Afghanistan......

The notion FMG are entirely domestically focussed, does not seem to be the case any longer if they are considering..... Afghanistan! Even deepest darkest Africa has a better record than that place. Just like he did with his personal visit to Guinea re- Simandou (but way too late in the game) Forrest is again taking a high profile role in pursuing non-Australian opportunities. https://www.mining.com/web/fortescue-opens-talks-with-afghanistan-on-nations-mining-riches/

Yep sorry to see you leave Oilberta after everything you have been through. I have been here three years & its been a series of misleading timelines & inevitable disappointments that leave a bad taste. But this time the hurdles have been overcome & we have a contract that all sides can finally stick to. The fact that for the first time, virtually since formation, senior staff are retaining large shareholdings tells us the staff also recognise that something has changed & we can expect a sequence of positive news - PSC extension, drill dates, marginal field results, actual drill. The price should be a multiple of where we are now by year end in London & Canada.

It was meant as a marker, that they had to get Dan's deals through soon or they would face a more serious & organised challenge at an EGM or the next AGM.

A bit like the internal Conservative Party dynamics, the real challenger does not reveal him/her-self initially but puts up Sir Hufton Tufton to test discontent. Well within 2 months of the Blackwell/Keegan coup, discontent measured 17.5% of votes cast. Interesting, tells us what arithmetic might be needed in future if they don't perform.