Member Info for Jiving

Agreed lets list whats expected in near term RNS's, in rough order of timing:

Audit OK & completion of Atomic purchase (by 25 February)
Potential purchase of Chinese 15% (end February/early March)
Leverage receivable from bankrupt third partner to gain remaining % (end February/early March)
West African opportunity announced (Nigeria marginal?) (end March)
OPL-226
Mozambique exploration PSC agreed with authorities

OK opening trade in Canada was for 90,000 @ 1c. This is a big change from recent history where substantial volume was done at open @ 0.5c - 9 million plus yesterday for example.

Looking at Canada live the 0.5c bid/ask is now replaced by 1c on both sides. Does not make sense for Canadian trades to take place below UK price. Lets see if there is any opening trades at 0.5c?

Right so 50m buy @0.27 in the 11.00 auction. That must have mopped up a lot of whatever was available at 0.27. Biggest size trade I have seen in an auction for COPL.

On Interactive Brokers I am currently seeing 50.5m bid at 0.265 in the 11.00 auction. Never seen anything like that before.

Sidneysideline. I think what is happening in Canada is actually at least as important as London trading. Yesterday saw the first time that, after a big initial 0.5c trade, trades were roughly even between 0.5c & 1c (=58p). At close there were 53m orders on the 0.5c bid & 115m orders on the 1c ask. If/when potential buyers @ 0.5c realise there is not enough stock to fill demand they will start buying in volume @ 1c. It could be Canada understand this North American oil deal better than many in London, & that nowadays there are less COPL legacy issues with new Canadian investors than with London based investors.

We don't know if Shorecan is bidding in this round, although it would make sense as COPL's technical strength would allow them to bid for fields many other Nigerian companies could not handle. Couple of recent news items - first a Reuters report sees awards being announced by end March. It seems part of the delay is that many potential awardees could not access US$ to pay signature bonuses - so payment in naira is now allowed. Second a local press report again mentions Shoreline as being one of the local companies expected to win bids in the contest, as the Govt favours a select few established local players.
https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-nigeria-oil/nigeria-expect-500-million-from-marginal-oilfields-with-awards-by-end-march-dpr-idUSKBN2A7084
https://www.thisdaylive.com/index.php/2021/01/22/giving-nigerian-firms-voices-in-the-oil-sector/

Watching the Canadian market where some 20m shares have now traded in under 2 hours. On open 9.3m cleared the 0.5c shares, and since then the 0.5c & 1c orders have been pretty evenly matched. Which is the first time I have seen that, before it was overwhelmingly 0.5c orders with just a few v small 1c orders. Today is a different pattern.

"Not so very long ago, the oil price went negative. But in the last three months alone it’s risen by 50%. And while it may take the odd breather here and there, there’s no doubt it’s heading higher, says John Stepek."
https://moneyweek.com/investments/commodities/energy/oil/602783/oil-price-heading-to-usd100

No problem Doug we are all trying to make sense of what is going on in the short & long term., and we have few facts to go on & some unpleasant memories of past promises. IF we finally get the deal done on roughly the terms indicated, its a great foundation to build a medium sized oil company. Arthur is heading for 60, this is his only chance to build a valuable asset in which he has a big stake, that together with bigger II shareholders gives me some hope that we will suffer less dilution going forward.

Actually taking a long or short via CFDs is no more complicated than options/warrants & many companies big & small have undertaken derivative transactions in various circumstances, particularly in the oil industry. I am not sure why he would want to challenge Arthur at an EGM & with less than 10% of the shares would have a very hard time making headway, particularly given the current difficulty of registering UK shares to vote in Canada.

CFD's have been used to legally circumvent disclosure rules & limits since the 1990's in London & elsewhere. If you type Keelan, Trafalgar House & Jardines into google you can see the history that began with a high profile takeover. American regulators understandably focus on manipulation of the American markets, the chance they would care about a minor Canadian company listed in London is remote. But just as they have done since the 1990s, smart lawyers could find a way to use CFD's or other arms length derivatives to legally go long/short. Obviously I have no idea if this is happening but there is a motive, there is a large holding with an offshore (ie lightly regulated) CFD/derivatives trader & there are ways of legally manipulating share prices using derivatives.

Rob you are right to be concerned. When it emerged that InterTrader had a 5% stake it rang alarm bells that a part of GVC spread betting/CFD empire was playing around with our shares. If they also hold warrants that just increases the trading tricks they can play. If the Atomic owner is legally tied up without a way out of the deal, now the oil price has rocketed, the only way he could hope to participate in the recent rise is effectively to keep the share price around the level it was when the deal was announced ( ie where we are now). He gets his $4m at rock bottom & then lets it move up, Arthur outmanoeuvred again.

Still no RNS out, is this yet another trading play?

Now entering my fourth year as a shareholder & we have been though the wringer & its time for some meaningful deals. The one thing I have liked about NFX under past & present management is that they are tight with our money. Given the delays at least its meant we have suffered relatively little dilution, provided we get 1/2 decent deals we will reap the rewards.

Unfortunately iron ore has actually been sliding the last couple of weeks, for China Spot 62% we have slid from the mid $170's to below $150 yesterday. Luckily I dont think it will have much influence on our share price.

The 3 weeks for fulfilling the loan conditions he is discussing in the interview is from the date of the interview (ie today 26th January) till the week of the 15th February. He is most definitely not suggesting completion will be being delayed for a 3 week period after the week of 15th February.

Thanks cdnoil I suspected it was some kind of agreed off market trade. Nevertheless Canadian volume is awesome & as COPL price increases & the Canadian fractions get less on a % basis, they may well drive is higher.

But what I am not understanding is how it is possible for transactions to be booked at 0.75c when the supposed spread is 0.5-1.0c. Lets face it if it was that easy to trade @0.75c, no sane investor would be selling at 0.5c or buying at 1.0c, if they could trade at 0.75c - or indeed 0.6c or 0.8c or fractions in between. I understood Canadian market trading limits at this price level dictated 0.5c spread intervals & not trades in between.

Link as below:
https://www.thecse.com/en/listings/oil-and-gas/canadian-overseas-petroleum-limited