Member Info for Jiving

MM all the signs are there that the company & core shareholders know a deal has been agreed but are in a state of limbo waiting for it to go unconditional. This is likely because the counterparty needs time to sort 'stuff' & if they request time, then more time, then an extension - in reality what can ZIOC do but accept necessary reality? Couple of points from the 2012 article:

1. Andrew Trahar is directly quoted & clearly the source of the info. So both the journo & the IR person are in the same jobs 12 years later, it seems highly likely the June article was based on the two of them in a discussion. It went wrong because Ian Lyall used the explosive description 'insider' which immediately sets off alarms in the City partic with nomads.

2. NPV valuation. A couple of quotes below make it clear Elphick/ZIOC were looking at any eventual takeover by Xstrata happening at 100% of a future development NPV (in our current 2-stage structure , equivalent to Stage 2 NPV). Why would Elphick/Glencore accept anything less now - I strongly suspect he reason why it has taken so long to find a partner/buyer has always been because their price aspirations are so high. As below in the event of an Xstrata buyout 50% of $4b - ie $2b - was intended to flow solely to the ZIOC shareholders, with what was then some 270m shares outstanding.

"If Xstrata wants to take full control of the deposit then it must buy Zanaga out at half the project’s net present value, which analysts put at around$2billion."

"The company’s enterprise value (including cash reserves of $50million) is just shy of £150million, which seems rather anomalous given it is sitting on a 50 per cent share of an asset worth an estimated US$4billion."

Soup, tbh I looked at the orphan status requirements back in March 2024 & could see that it was not a simple form filling exercise but would likely need consultants & a longer consultative process. So I still dont understand why they did not start this process earlier - yes they would have needed an EGM to raise funds but better in late spring than early autumn. The dream is always we are in a competitive situation (as a longstanding/suffering UK small caps investor I know this hope/delusion) the likely reality frankly, is at best we may have one potentially interested licensee who would have no need for an option agreement in advance of status confirmation.

Interesting timing from FT with that article Extrader.

I see Zanaga's high grade iron ore as being the missing key ingredient the Saudis need to launch their various green steel projects, including the Baosteel JV. Without it they can't go ahead with massive expenditure on: green steel production plants, vast solar power installations, hydrogen production facilities & all the infrastructure around it; without owning the key component. So IMO they 'had' to secure quality iron ore offtake/ownership prior to launching everything else.

Financially it could be viewed as an inverted pyramid, with Zanaga's iron ore at the base & layers of various green steel production & infrastructure investment/expenditure building up & outward from that base. This is one reason I believe we possibly have had to await Saudi 2025 budget approval, as overall it may be a financial investment many times the purchase cost of Zanaga.

I agree with that orphan timeline Soup (& it still puzzles me that having identified the need for orphan status back in February, we are only actively pursuing it in November). But what worries me are the implications for the other timelines. I believe we raised approx 6 months money, so thats a financial timeline with an end date. We also have a potential licensee timeline, but realistically that only really takes off once we receive orphan status. That status seems, in practice, to be a necessary condition before serious licensing talks take place. So the licensing timeline likely requires more time than the financial timeline currently allows.

4K, Wednesday also marks the start of my period of maximum hope (indeed my last remaining hope for 2024), namely the days around the AGM. Elphick has form (2022 Glencore deal) of using the AGM as one of the 2 GMs he needed for approval of corporate action. The problem is we have no idea what type/structure of deal might be coming so he may or may not require the same approval structure as before but something different.

The date of the AGM is one thing he has a large degree of discretion over, and given he usually leaves everything to the last minute - it is noteworthy that he called it early in December - leaving himself just enough time to get a 2nd GM in before Xmas.

5.36p just traded, interesting sign of life given the week ahead.

I am hoping for news before then as well Marcus, the Saudis would surely love to have a big deal to boast about at that conference. IF we get an announcement around the AGM, & depending crucially on the type/structure of the deal, we could theoretically have gone 'unconditional' by the start of FMF 2025

Being held on 14 - 16 January 2025, at King Abdulaziz International Conference Center, Riyadh.

Last year some people were watching the application process, that is where we presumably would see the first sign of progress towards eventual status.

As above, another plausible reason for a delay in an announcement until December, is so that payment/financing takes place in the new 2025 Saudi financial year. An announcement in early December, possibly necessitating 1/2 back-to-back ZIOC GM's; plus corporate action afterwards; plus potentially a court sanctioned scheme of arrangement; would easily push any Saudi/consortium payment date into January 2025, even on a tight schedule.

Lets hope we are one of the accelerated projects:

"The Public Investment Fund has asked some portfolio companies to cut their proposed budgets for next year by as much as 20% while some other developments may be accelerated, according to people familiar with the matter, who asked not to be identified discussing private information. The PIF is also reviewing budgets for projects yet to be announced, the people said."

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/saudi-wealth-fund-shifting-focus-120438247.html

It is useful to see how the company anticipated takeover & similar events in the relevant sections of the 2010 IPO Prospectus. I set out a couple of the relevant portions, together with page numbers:

Xstrata Offer P23 - becoming an 'investing company' may refer to retaining royalties or other ongoing interest:

“In the event that an Xstrata Offer is made to the Company for all of the issued share capital of Jumelles BVI, the Company would, following completion of the Xstrata Offer, seek Shareholder approval for an appropriate course of action, be that a winding up and return of capital to Shareholders or a conversion of status to an investing company.

Xstrata offer & NPV after BFS produced P41 - Elphick hard wires NPV valuations in, whenever he can:

“If the parties are unable to reach agreement, they may refer the matter to an independent valuer who will determine a price per ordinary share of no par value in Jumelles BVI based on the net present value of the Zanaga Project in accordance with the valuation terms of reference set out in the JVA. “

Original ore marketing agreement P45

BVI company risks P98

Shareholding history P268

Jumelles history P288

Thanks thats a useful detail.

Is that a Saudi owned/leased jet MM, in which case it would presumably head back 'home'?

One day....

I am wondering if Denis in Riyadh could be "it".

The way these events work, MBS & Co will want to make a big splash when they do finally sign & Denis would def be an attendee at such a media oriented event. Of course he could just be in town for 'discussions' but timing wise we have just had our AGM announcement, everything our end seems 'locked & loaded' & has been since end August.

My algorithm shows the Earl legged it on the first day, leaving the suckers behind - again.

"This stocks too illiquid to be a P&D target."

Investing.com shows 250m traded yesterday.

Ex, I read that as being Manara's initial negotiating position. If if we have been in a nearly 2 year haggle with the Saudis, it looks like PK may be playing some of the same cards are bunch did. Similarities I note from that article:

i. FS Update Play. "Pkstan has engaged international advisors to carry out a valuation of the project before negotiating the price with Saudi Arabia. Officials estimate that the international advisors will complete the valuation of the 15% stakes within two months. This will be based on the new feasibility study."

ii. Competition threat. "Additionally, other countries have also expressed interest in the project with Canada and Japan offering to provide $500 million respectively, Germany looking to give $300 million, South Korea considering $400 million, and Australia looking at about $200 million. But no formal offers have been made so far as foreign lenders too await the results of the feasibility study, expected to be ready by January 2025."

iii. Dangle tempting IRR. "The initial results of the study show a very high internal rate of return on the investment, said the sources."

All roads lead to Riyadh.

Fascinating connections Extrader, given the looming shortage of high grade ore for pelletisation & green steel, I can't believe we will stay on the shelf much longer.