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Agree completely with that assessment MM. It is also relevant that Wilt has repeatedly stressed that the time between initiating exploration of a resource & actual production commencing - which he put at 18 years has to be reduced to below 9 years. Well one way of entirely circumventing that process is to take an oven-ready mine that has been: fully drilled & proven up; all the time consuming licenses & environmental permissions obtained; workable solutions to power & port identified; & a full current FS produced that can lead into FEED within months. That is a value-added proposition & after all it was not a 'free' process, the drilling alone was some $300m., and again I am not aware of any competing projects at such an advanced stage.

I just sat through the FII8 roundtable live stream for the discussion involving Wilt, Pimenta, Robert Friedland & 2 others. It was a 30+ minute affair so necessarily lightweight. But Wilt & Pimenta made a point of specifically including iron/steel in the essential green mineral space. And together with Friedland paid heed to the need for large scale, high grade, low cost mines as being central to progress.

Wilt & Pimenta come across as articulate, highly capable people - the impression they give is that once set a goal they will find a way to achieve that goal. Even if no deal announcement is imminent, it is surely a big positive to have the senior players on the ground in Saudi, potentially settling outstanding issues in person.

This is the link to the June 2024 video interview with Bob Wilt:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0-qOFC7tDGU

I note Wilt & Pimenta (Vale CEO) are both due to speak today at FII8 at 12.00 Riyadh time. Pimenta was in Oman on Monday for the announcement of the JV with Oman & Jinnan.

Thought it might be useful to add up the large orders that went through Friday & Monday by type.

The large (over 100k) delayed publication trades - which we have associated with Shard in the past:

Monday 28.10 = 3.7m

Friday 25.10 = 3.8m

Friday 25.10 = 2.0m (additional 'ordinary' trades over 100k)

The Ian Lyall link is a good spot Ex. It confirms he knew exactly what he was writing about in the June article & IMO would have had a longstanding IR relationship with AT. It would be natural for AT to contact him with a tip/update, but what sparked the regulatory reaction was likely Lyall's description of his source specifically as an 'insider'.

Thanks Vet10. The article is confusingly phrased, I believe the 50% referred to is ZIOC's share of the project so the Xstrata option would be worth 50% of a $4 billion NPV: ie they if it had been exercised they would get 50% of a 100% NPV valuation or $2 billion;

The final sentence reads: "The company’s enterprise value (including cash reserves of $50million) is just shy of £150million, which seems rather anomalous given it is sitting on a 50 per cent share of an asset worth an estimated US$4billion."

The earlier more ambiguous, confusing sentence reads: "If Xstrata wants to take full control of the deposit then it must buy Zanaga out at half the project’s net present value, which analysts put at around$2billion. "

Hi Extrader

There are so many factors at work it is difficult to see how it will play out. The one thing we can be sure of is that the global iron/steel industry recognises an imminent shortage of 67% ore, which is the essential input for hydrogen driven DRI. As we appear to be the only large scale project at a pre-development stage surely surely someone must bite?

I think all parties in the region both compete & co-operate with each other as they see fit. I dont see Vale's project in Oman conflicting with UAE or Saudi endeavours. Particularly as the Saudis have their investment in Vale's nickel/copper arm & describe it not simply as an investment but a strategic partnership. Incidentally the article you linked on Wilt/Marden recently critically emphasised the importance of offtake vs normal equity investment criteria. For me this shows the Saudis see owning the key commodities offtake as essential prior to developing downstream value added industries; ie no 'green' steel without first obtaining 'green' ore. In that interview, & a video interview I scanned recently, he listed the progress in all their key areas except iron ore!

The finance/debt agreement the Chinese signed with the Saudis in the summer incidentally clearly covers the type of project finance needed for Stage 1 of our project, might the Chinese provide the 70% debt element whilst the Saudis provide the 30% equity component?

Vet10, do you have a link to that This is Money article. The reference to the Xstrata option that is in the 2010 IPO Prospectus mentions them having an option for the remaining approx 50% of the mine (from ZIOC ) at npv:

"Within 90 days of completion of the FS, Xstrata has a right to acquire the Company's remaining 49.99% interest in Jumelles Ltd and the Zanaga Project ("Second Option") at a price based on net present value,.."

We are ending 2 days of substantial trading volume, price-wise pretty much where we started. Which suggests to me it was not a case of insiders/whoever selling as otherwise we would have ended up in he lower 3p's.

Which may suggest this was about something else - maybe portfolio shuffling ahead of capital gains or indeed as you point out MM possibly involving the mysterious 13m+ trade in the last placing. Were these shares 'warehoused' to be released later when they were needed & in a required amount - perhaps to secure a required corporate voting %?

A key sentence from that article Always, referring back to the previous year's summit:

"Since the summit (Saudi-Africa Summit), within less than a year, we are working on $5 billion of these investments.”

Its time the Saudis stopped talking big African investments & started announcing them.

I am of the same mindset Always, except that I think there has been nearly two years of haggling over price. But that that issue was finally resolved & documented between end June & end August - ie in the period between 2 key events. First, the 1 July placings with the Glencore/Elphick top-ups & the mysterious 13m+ block trade, which also led to the early debt repayment & raising sufficient funds to potentially pay all creditors. Second, the Marty option award on 29 August which looked to me like his success fee - which if so would only have been paid on 'success'.

Indeed I go so far as to speculate that the Saudis whole green steel initiative has in practice been on hold until they secured the vital high quality ore needed as the essential feedstock. Manara will no doubt have scoured the earth looking for suitable projects that crucially are 'oven-ready' to move into production at short notice. I am not aware of any other significant high quality iron ore mine that is fully drilled/proven, fully licensed & permitted & ready to move immediately into FEER on the basis of a current 2024 FS. Their target list may in practice have been whittled down to one name & they finally did whatever was necessary on price to get it over the line. We have had two months since then for them to get their consortium in line & documented/contracted.

Something is going on in the background here - given the sizeable trades that went through Friday & now today. But what?

Are these large holders moving shares between accounts/individuals/offshore - perhaps to lower capital gains? They do not appear to be the 'Bed & ISA' type of trade which are typically nearly simultaneously recorded & have just a slight difference in price/size reflecting the commission. Also it doesnt (touch wood) appear to be one sided panic selling.

This article from almost a year ago (09.11.23) set out some ambitious goals for Saudi investment in Africa - few if any appear to have resulted in anything substantial. Couple of quotes - we (& Africa) still await the ''..game changing announcements":

"Saudi Minister of Investment Khalid Al-Falih telling the event that the Kingdom’s Public Investment Fund is eyeing up deals in the continent. “PIF is looking at Africa with great interest and I believe they will be in due course making some game-changing announcements about their intent to invest in Africa,” he said, adding that Ma’aden and PIF’s joint venture – announced in January – is going to “invest in the critical minerals in Africa.”

"Ma’aden CEO Robert Wilt said the company is “serious” about exploration and are actively looking into 45 sites,"

https://www.arabnews.com/node/2405881/business-economy

As ever we have no idea who is selling or why. But the timing is interesting, the last trading day before the week of the Saudi FII8 - conference where they have stated $28 billion of deals/partnerships will be announced.

Nibj, you will of course remember the 14.38m block trade at the 1 July 2024 placing. I raised the possibility that the block 'might' have gone to our eventual strategic investor, enabling them not only to vote for their own potential deal at an EGM (& maybe get Elphick over the magic 75%+1) but also to lower their overall cost of entry IF they are paying an NPV based price in the main transaction.

So are these trades the 4m+ remainder of the 2 tranches that were triggered on 1 July & are they potentially going to the same hands? Desperately trying to find a positive angle here.....

Or are these existing holders/option holders moving positions around for tax/portfolio reasons?

Same as yesterday, some large sells taking out the bids at ever lower levels. Does make you wonder: the Friday before the week of the Saudi conference & the share price is going in the wrong direction.

Interesting confirmation the Vale CEO will be in Riyadh next week. Of course he is there because Manara is a strategic investor in Vale's nickel/copper division, but he is at hand should there be an announcement.

More copper & nickel for Manara, but still no iron ore deals or even rumours!

"Saudi Arabia’s Manara Minerals is closing in on a deal to buy a minority stake in Canadian miner First Quantum Minerals’ Zambian copper and nickel assets, three people familiar with the details told Reuters. The stake could be worth between $1.5 billion and $2 billion, one of the sources added. First Quantum’s sale of a stake in the Zambian assets could be concluded by year-end, the sources said. There is no certainty that a deal will be signed as the negotiations are ongoing, they added."

https://www.mining.com/web/saudis-manara-in-advanced-talks-to-buy-stake-in-first-quantums-zambian-mines/

Has anybody had any response from AT in living memory?