Member Info for Jiving

Jay I dont have/want contact with COPL IR. IMO they are there primarily to spin information & fob investors off. I appreciate others may view them differently.

Jay. I think the two 2017 placings so close together is actually v important. I notice that in the 2017 accounts, of the $4.1m 'Cash & Cash Equivalents' as of 31.12.17 actually $2.1m is described "....represents a trust deposit held with the Company�s lawyers in respect of a potential future transaction. There are no restrictions on this cash and the deposit is waiting further instructions from COPL." What is that sum being held in trust for - is it to do with the Shoreline JV expenses or related to the OPL226 license process (is that why the second 2017 placing HAD to take place when the first 2017 placing was supposed to be sufficient?) . Perhaps someone with industry knowledge might know if funds have to be shown to be available as part of the NNPC process. Also if these funds are still held in trust, for whatever purpose, then presumably they are not available to be used to meet ongoing monthly expenses? In which case .....

GeneralOptimus. Why do you struggle to understand it has, nothing but nothing to do with 'market forces', and everything to do with a CEO spinning a timeline he likely knew to be false in order to get a placing away. The market don't come into it, neither do 'guarantees in life' & least of all does slipping 'target dates' that likely never existed.

Sub Mariner. Its Arthur that primarily needs to apologise for deliberately & calculatingly misleading investors before & after a placing - conning many of us into a time horizon for a story he likely knew to be false. We need Arthur's apology before Messy's - lets wait "..till the fat lady sings.."

Typo my bad, I did read the tweet & appreciate the NNPC/NNRC distinction. IMP NNRC is pos but not as pos as if it were NNPC, thoughts? On your other issue of what COPL should trade at when we have producing wells. If we get Arthur's 1 + 3 intended initial field we can start playing with output (20,000 bpd ??), likely oil price ($60/70), production costs wayback I saw someone quote under $10 for shallow offshore, take a wild gamble on Nigerian royalty/tax payments & the assign COPL 40% of whatever comes out. What earnings multiple do small/medium African producers trade at? Once we get NNPC agreements, confirm finance & hire a rig, it becomes highly appropriate to work through some sums.

I agree the NNPC message I take to be positive. Its an acknowledgement of the OPL226 plans & sentiment expressed by Arthur in the RNS.

The relevant quote from SEDAR is: "In addition, ShoreCan has committed to invest up to a maximum of $80 million into Essar Nigeria in the form of an interest-free shareholder loan." So it is not Shoreline but the ShoreCan JV that "commits" & COPL as 50% JV partner is therefore liable/responsible for half this $80m. In practice the ongoing financing needs of expanding the OPL226 field should come from tax efficient oil revenue re-cycled from first & subsequent wells.

The link to various new docs is here: https://www.sedar.com/DisplayCompanyDocuments.do?lang=EN&issuerNo=00021327 Good news - Placement pressure off till mid/late summer. Mixed news - No attempt to estimate when we get remaining NNPC permissions. As Messy points out at current mkt price the 40% of OPL226 is valued at virtually nothing. Simply getting NNPC permissions 'should' multiply share price. Whats the value of 40% of an attractive oil field in shallow waters with some 20-24k bpd anticipated in short order. 7.3m barrels per year @$65 = approx $474m; COPL 40% share of revenue = approx $190m. With 'domestic' tax efficient status and low cost of production (anyone figs or estimates anyone?) the margins & profitability should be v high. I am still appalled by Arthurs behaviour over last 6 months, but the share price is not representing a more positive reality. On past posts for last few months you can note I have seen it as a 'Hold' now I think - at these levels - its a 'Buy'.

Simple mental arithmetic tells us that the money runs out - just based on OPL226 - in July. As the company has deliberately not informed us of any cost reductions we have to assume the previous monthly cash burn is continuing. The Mozambique cash drain is also supposed to start up by end 1st quarter 2018, so that may be yet an additional cash burn on top of OPL226. Maybe maybe �our� company would let us know how that will be financed & for how much/when, the nonsense of NNPC confidentiality does not apply there!! Also the idea that there are always going to be investors (suckers...) to cough up every time Arthur rattles his bowl with the same old broken record (he has already played twice last year) is simply not how the market works. Of course management is not going to wait until 12 July if money runs out on 16 July. There are potentially documents to produce (annual figs will be v useful in this respect), investor meetings to be held, details to be agreed & allowance made for market conditions. Placement planning could take three months, work back from July. Some posters on this forum do not seem to understand this is a 'discussion' forum & not a 'rampers' forum. It a place where adults discuss a share they may or may not own. That means we adults discuss the negative aspects of a company as well as the positive - unfortunately in the case of COPL there are a hell of a lot of negatives all made massively worse by Arthur�s rotten attitude & behaviour. I even had one low IQ moron send me an offensive email in December (lesson: don't let lowlife have your personal email) because he didn't 'understand' why I raised negative issues on a discussion board. Frankly if you are so thick and lack even a simpletons understanding that companies have bad as well as good points which investors need to be aware of & discuss, you are better off flogging dodgy Xmas trees to blind pensioners than becoming an investor.

Well clearly we are running out of cash, so the only way out is a placing (bar a certified miracle with NNPC in next 4-6 weeks) but who is going to buy ? How many suckers are there left, a simple google search or checking out this forum could tell any potential suckers the dismal dismal record of Arthur & the grief it has caused all who bought into his fairy tale in 2017. Assuming Arthur refuses to cut the ridiculous costs, his crazy salary, & trips to London & elsewhere; then 6 months is what 400-500m @ 0.4p. Then of course we have the Mozambique nightmare to finance, a bottomless pit potentially for years & no revenue to pay for it just yet more shares & massive dilution for us suckers. The manager of the average corner shop could manage this 10x better than Arthur.

A further comment on IR for COPL. From what I can see they seem to take the view that their job is to placate investors with platitudes but do nothing to attempt to make Arthur more investor friendly. The simple fact that investors who are selling have specifically highlighted Arthur's appalling contemptuous attitude towards them as the last straw, is testimony to a fundamental failure of IR here. An example of a company that has had many disappointments in the last 18 months but has gone out of its way to keep investors informed & therefore built a bank of goodwill is 88e, & that has helped the company's share price weather the disappointments. Its truly not rocket science, Arthur just needs to be persuaded to act like a responsible adult.

Messy you best comment yet. So true.

The messages of the last 24 hours have been revelatory. Time after time investors have singled out Arthurs rotten arrogant behaviour towards them as being the last straw. This is particularly outrageous for those of us who actually pressed the Buy button last summer primarily because of Arthur's written & verbal promises that we would be producing oil by year end (that is year end 2017, now will it be year end 2018 or 2022...no communication from 'our' company?). Any halfway decent CEO, indeed any halfway decent human being, would have essentially apologised for those promises not having been met and given a frank explanation to why it has not happened and outlined what he & Kola intended to do about it. We shareholders have been left 100% in the dark having to scour the Nigerian English language press for possible clues - is the delay due to the corruption, is it due to the NNPC restructuring, do we have to wait for the new oil legislation to pass before any progress occurs. Arthur via Kola is presumably aware of whats going on & why, but has such total absolute 100% contempt for the folks who have paid his salary for years of massive share underperformance, that he cant even be fagged to put together a two page explanation after another 3 months of zero communication.

The share price is suffering not just from the length of time it is taking for NNPC to approve or not, but also from Arthur's insulting treatment of shareholders by not explaining the reasons for the unexpected delay (relative to his various timelines given in writing & verbally last year).

I wish I knew or even had an informed hunch, frankly I think its now - over 6 months since we expected it (according to Arthur) - chances are under 50:50 that we get NNPC in a reasonable time horizon. It looks to me like we have a 'problem' but our 'management' does not see fit to inform us the nature of that problem (hints via IR of unexpected levels of corruption at NNPC - seriously that is a surprise from an organisation deemed by many anti-corruption consultants to be the most corrupt in Africa!).

We should not be guessing/hoping it will be April 2018, or April 2019 or April 2023, but being provided with guidance as to timing by our overly generously paid CEO. Having previously set out a week by week timetable to drilling last year (see COPL presentations - of course not updated), he now insults us with a belligerent "no comment", & and comes up with a new spin/lie that its all suddenly hush-hush & confidential. My faith in Arthur which was say 55% in August is now around 8-9%.

The company has been in 'news lockdown' for 6 months now because their crazy optimism (pre placings please note) has been shown - by time - no be totally misplaced. We do not have any idea whether NNPC consents will be forthcoming in 2018 or 2019 or maybe never. What is outrageous is that a 'CEO' who promises an outcome then point blank refuses ti update those he has frankly conned for months on end . Whilst still of course it seem swaggering round the world at shareholders expense.

Well I sure hope the company is on a news lockdown but I suspect its just Arthur not giving the slightest dam about shareholders & not informing them of the so called '''progress''' he claims (via IR) to be making. We do not have any indication whether it will be this week, month or year -- given Arthur once posted a week-by-week timetable for how it would work out this is indeed hopeless (whats changed since he was that sure ... hey we should know). Like Panamabob I have never seen a company behave so badly & insultingly towards its shareholders.

My hunch is they will have to play safe and raise a full year's worth of running costs. Pretty much US$5m at current crazy monthly running costs. But it gets worse, because the wretched Mozambique nonsense also requires funds as they have committed to agree a production sharing agreement with the Government (first quarter 2018!) & will then begin exploration - costs, costs, costs. IF IF Arthur can convince investors to back his story for one more placing, even he must realise its absolutely the last time any one will listen let alone cough up cash. Also who knows what will happen to the market this year - so raise as much as you can in one placing & assume its the last time/chance. Depending on placing discount - anything from 600m-800m shares, but more if Mozambique goes ahead. What a good idea it would be if COPL Chairman & Board decided to halve monthly running costs (reflecting the simple fact this is a minute company on 'hold'), going forward. They also need to sell/dump Mozambique, COPL has no cashflow & no funds for exploration. Halve the monthly costs you halve the dilution, if they acted on behalf of shareholders surely that would be what they would do?

Seriously if we get a statement at the end of March what is Arthur going to say? On one of his autumn interviews he stated he could not report on NNPC issues due to 'confidentiality' (not that that stopped him telling the world it was all going to be OK in late summer). I am baffled why anyone thinks raising money for Mozambique is a positive. Its exploration not production, a black hole that goes on for years with uncertain results, a bottomless pit requiring annual money raises - because of course no revenue is being produced only expenditure!