Member Info for Jiving

Leaving aside all Devil's nonsense, what are we to make of this, it seems pretty detailed. Shoreline on there but no mention of ShoreCan or COPL. I see one positive on timing: NNPC�s spokesperson, Ndu Ughamadu: "What is circulating in the media is not the official list. The authentic list will be released soon." https://www.premiumtimesng.com/news/headlines/269110-list-of-50-crude-oil-lifters-not-official-nnpc.html

HarryMann. You should have made it clear that that was text copied 6 months ago from Aberdeenman's blog post of 20th November 2017. Otherwise it does not make sense ie "..promising news from the end Q2...News can come any day...Yesterday NNPC & Chevron..." https://***************/copl/

Rift. How childish of you I am a major holder - dont know about you? You were the infant who kept seeing """Nigerian buyers"" back in January/February when there were none at all & the share price fell back by 30-40%. I have no idea how old you are but you truly come across as a spoilt child.

This is looking serious!

But remember for every buyer there has to be a seller.

Good and convincing explanation.

https://www.straitstimes.com/asia/se-asia/bn-component-parties-in-sarawak-reportedly-poised-to-defect

"Reacting to reports on the renewal of the expired oil licences, the ex-militants under the aegis of �Coalition of Niger Delta Agitators,...� Read more at: https://www.vanguardngr.com/2018/05/ex-militants-buhari-distribute-oil-blocks-states/

Tony Fernandes has been fast to get his apology/retraction is for supporting the wrong side: https://www.thestar.com.my/news/nation/2018/05/11/syed-saddiq-defends-tony-fernandes/ The bargaining between Sarawak pols & Mahathir has reportedly already begun. IMO this is crucial. http://www.sarawakreport.org/2018/05/dont-bargain-with-taib-just-tell-him-the-score/

Mikemike. Yes I have also lived & worked in SE Asia for some 30 years. I truly hope Mahathir adheres to the rule of law as the Malaysian people deserve better than the scum they have had ruling them since the 1970s.

BTW one positive for UPL is that Tony Fernandes has historically had a very good relationship with Mahathir who allowed him to buy a bankrupt small state airline which became Air Asia & also pushed for regional rights for AA. Even here there is a hiccup in that Fernandes backed Najib in the recent election. A sign of whats coming - Najib & wife were stopped from flying out of Malaysia today. Anyone needing to understand the 'rule of law' in Malaysia should google some of the following 1MDB + Semtex Mongolian model, Paris Hilton, Wolf of Wall Street, Attorney General dismissed, Goldman Sachs, US assets seizure, Lindsay Lohan Sugar Daddy, Singapore asset seizure, Picasso, $250m yacht.... This is Malaysia's version of "The show with everything but Yul Brynner." An Internet news site Sarawak Report carries v detailed reports on all this.

Finncairn. Sadly the reality of power in Malaysia is that a powerful federal PM can override every deal, treaty or constitutional requirement. Mahathir did exactly that in his previous period of rule, when he essentially made Malaysia into a quasi dictatorship. If he decides to take back oil/gas rights from Sarawak he would find a way of doing it. Now I hope that he doesn't that he becomes a more constitutional PM than he was before, we will find out soon enough. Two reasons he may do that, first, Sarawak essentially backed the losing side, never good in Malaysian politics. Second, Mahathir will v likely repeal a new sales tax leaving a massive hole in federal finances, grabbing as much oil revenue at federal level is one way of doing that.

Saint. My concern is if it is now become the other way around - you have to prove financial capability before NNPC signs off on permissions.

Indi. I think thats a critical point - in the new NNPC regime is it no longer simply a legalistic/administrative issue to get final permissions but proving you have the financial capability to develop your licence/oil field? In which case COPL with essentially very very limited resources is possibly a questionable licensee.

Sorry guys my error I was looking at cash used in operating activities and not total administrative expenses which were actually slightly up at $1.254m for 3 months so so some $410k pm. This seems to have been due to a jump in consulting fees, which may not be recurring. Indi. The company had a total of $3.077m in cash on 31.03.18, so IF we take monthly expenses at $400k pm we had 7 months worth at the end of march or enough till end October 2018.

One other interesting point from the interims is that monthly expenses seem to have declined to some $310k per month for the first three months of 2018. If that can continue that will be useful to eke out our remaining resources for longer.

The relevant part from interims re-trust; "Cash in trust of $2.0 million as of March 31, 2018 ($2.1 million as at December 31, 2017) represents a trust deposit of CAD $2.6 million held with the Company�s lawyers in respect of a potential future transaction. There were no restrictions on this cash and the deposit was returned to COPL on April 6, 2018." So we are now in the clear with this money and can use for general purposes. We do not know the nature of the transaction this was held in trust for but it was likely a stipulation for COPLs potential participation in the mystery deal that these funds were put into trust. Had the transaction continued then the company could not have accessed the funds without losing the deal. So in practice COPL did not have use of these funds for monthly running costs until some 5 weeks ago - ie just in time to forestall another placing.

I lived & worked in Malaysia in the 1990s for a local bank. This was in the middle of the Mahathir era. The way Malaysia is ruled in practice has virtually no relationship to constitutions & declaration of principle. Everything is up for grabs & frankly I see no reason why the new (old) Government will in practice be any different from any previous one. UPL & its contacts & partners may come out on top in Sarawak (they are good guys & excellent partners) but this election has changed everything. Similarly I very much doubt that in practice UPL allowed for a change of government, virtually everybody in the media & academia & the 'elite' expected a continuation of 61 years of UMNO rule. There will be changes of ministers, changes to agency heads, potentially changes of Govt policy towards both the oil sector & the revenue divide between the federal & state (ie Sarawak) entities.

Rift. Very interesting figures. Again I really dont want to jump the gun until we get NNPC but.. Royalty - Nigeria imposes a max of 20% & tapers down for offshore, COPL est 18.5%. OPEX - May 2017 presentation gave annual OPEX of $42m, on 8500bpd = $13.5ish, others say under $10 CAPEX - not horrific for shallow offshore. Arthur has continually stressed that ShoreCan wants to fully develop the whole OPL226 field using the 'domestic' status to do so in a tax efficient fashion. Its when you start assessing the impact of multiple areas within the field being exploited that the bpd jumps to a multiple of 8.5k bpd. Lets just get NNPC for starters and as Arthur points out current oil prices make financing easier.

�Since our last report, we have made significant progress on securing a financing package for OPL 226 appraisal/development project offshore Nigeria, and the necessary government consents. Our management team, who are also shareholders, share the concern of the shareholders who contact us about the length of time it is taking to move forward on this project. Unfortunately, most if not all of the issues have been outside of our control, but together the Company and our joint venture partner Shoreline Energy are focused on bringing this part of the project to a conclusion. With Brent crude oil prices hovering in excess US$75 per barrel, the economics of our interests in OPL 226 are very attractive and should allow us to conclude this part of the process and move quickly to the next or operational phase.�