Member Info for Jiving

It is an exploration company until it starts producing & actual money starts flowing. Future revenue does not pay todays bills. UNTIL it actually produces & the oil revenue flows back to the company via Shorecan the only way it can survive is by using the funds raised from its 2017 equity issues & then undertaking a new one when they run out (be that end October, mid November) whenever. If NNPC happens the equation changes but we still have no idea when that is.N The rules of the LSE forum are set by its owners & enforced by its moderator - you are neither just A.N. Other poster. It is not your place to seek to impose your ignorant infantile views & 'understanding' on other posters. IF you feel a post is inappropriate report it to the moderators DONT start abusing the poster with this childish de-ramper nonsense. Like I said live & let live!

Well I am point blank not accepting anyone stopping me discussing when a company I am invested in may do a placing. Nor am I going to accept being dubbed a de-ramper because some people do not understand the simple elementary fact that exploration company's can only survive by placings - its issue equity or bankruptcy. As I have said before this is so elementary that on mining forums any idiot who thought discussion of the always present issue of when the next placing is going to be was 'de-ramping', would be laughed off the forum if not banned. I can remember at the beginning of the year posters seeing a couple of million buy orders as being signs of Nigerian insiders buying. I rolled my eyes but didn't pile in accusing them of ramping etc. If you have a valid point in response to a post make it, if not move along. Live & let live, otherwise the board descends into a bickering mess.

My hunch is Arthur would most likely issue the new presentation after NNPC. It may be a different presentation not just because of the significantly higher oil price but also because the Nigerians might want say bigger/faster production ahead of February 2019 elections?

Cdnoilsupporter from the AGM reported we might actually be getting 3 issues announced/resolved at once in the RNS - approvals, finance AND contractors: "..and when it is going to be announced it will all be announced with news of approvals, financing and contractors." Also from one of Rift's recent messages from IR, Arthur would be revising his presentation on OPL226 economics to reflect presumably the dramatically improvement caused by the current price of oil (nearly double). Could this be expected to encourage financiers & the NNPC to fast forward development of OPL226?

Inner. Right I am sure that must be the key event we are waiting for. Potentially other marketing deals outside China for NXP001 could/would be conditional on favourable bioequivalence results. Dr Blackwell has presumably done his due diligence before signing on board.

Be interested to hear your rationale for 2p?

Yep sadly it looks like another 'dump & pump'. Yesterday the dump today the pump, plus that dodgy twitter 'news' with no link! One day the news will drop & there will be a 7.00 RNS waiting for us.

IMO COPL offers the highest % upside of any oil stock on the LSE. At circa £8m it is essentially valuing 40% of a serious Nigerian oil field at next to nothing. If you look at other explorers like say 88e they are actually very well capitalised for their prospects (BTW I think 88e is an excellent co with great management & great prospects) but at over £100m mkt cap how many multiples can you make in the next 12 months. With COPL once we get the mega-RNS & hopefully an updated OPL226 development plan frankly we 'have' to be worth £100m on immediate & medium term oil revenue/prospects. So depending on shares in circulation (1.5-2.0b) we should be looking at 4-5p on first flow. With again a swift production path upward as the oil field is expanded, incrementally but potentially quickly, I see that rising fast into the mid teens.

Rift. As I explained at 11.24 yesterday it is TOTAL monthly costs that count not simply cash, total monthly costs in the last quarter to 31 March 2018 as I pointed out yesterday, its in the COPL statement; "General and administrative costs were $1.3 million for the three months ended March 31, 2018." So - $1.3m divided by 3 = $433k per month, actually over $400k". Rift you are totally clueless regarding how companies are run, but you try to censor & abuse the adults who are trying to work out how our investment is faring. Stick to putting a fiver on the dogs or the horses.

No Rift, grown up investors want to discuss with other adults ALL the aspects of their investments good & bad. Its a discussion board not a nursery school group for arithmetically disabled rampers.

Arthur is of course the biggest ramper/de-ramper COPL has. Recent history - the Jump up above 0.7 last month; the Dump as insiders/knowledgeable cash in, the Placing when tehy buy back in

Total costs are not simply 'cash used' in a quarter. This is the first sentence of the last quarterly report: "General and administrative costs were $1.3 million for the three months ended March 31, 2018." $3.1m divided by $0.4+ = 7 months & change. This is apparently confirmed by the company - its either side of the end of October. Denying reality does nobody any good. It makes me wonder if Rift is even a shareholder how can somebody this ignorant & dismissive of reality actually be an investor?

The nonsense is that some people don't accept or seemingly understand simple mental arithmetic. Art has not managed to get cash burn down below $400k a month, that reality shows through in every quarterly. COPL is charging Shoreline for Shorecan work that comes through in the quarterly figures, but that alone does not stop the constant drain on resources. It is really so simple $4m divided by $400k a month = 10 months. The clock on the last $4m started on 1 January which means money runs out at the end of October. Grow up & face reality COPL cannot run on 'free', like every other exploration company in the world with ZERO revenue, they have to survive by raising & spending shareholders equity - there is no other way, no other miraculous source. Even when NNPC arrives, COPL will still need some working capital outside of OPL226 operating expenses to pursue Mozambique & other possibilities. Again every company in the world faces these issues not just COPL. You should not invest in exploration shares if you really do not understand elementary ABC facts about them. I invest mainly in gold/silver miners, pure explorers only survive on equity capital so all the grown-ups recognise we are only so many months away from the next financing. Thankfully on the mining forums (literally) nobody is whining & pretending these companies can miraculously survive by some other means, everybody understand & accepts that basic reality.

We had 10 months money (@ $400k monthly burn) at the start of the year, we are now in month 6. You cant leave money raising till the last minute, so July/August plans have to be put in motion. You do wonder what genuine issues can hold up approvals for what heading for 10+ months?

Copper. Yes it does appear chaotic but underneath it Dr M is working to his plan. In the month since he took power he has re-launched his feud with Singapore, is now visiting Japan in a snub to China, is promoting a rival to Anwar as his successor & is even talking of a new Malaysian car (this goes back 30+ years when he launched Malaysia's car the Proton). He is clearly interfering (again) with the judiciary & creating friction with the royal family. The Sarawak oil dispute is one of many many balls he has in the air, characteristically he is pretending it has nothing to do with him & is a matter for Petronas & the judiciary. Will he cut a deal with Sarawak, possibly but the end result will likely look very different from the one previously agreed with Najid.

Thats a good find Copperpot puts the competing issues into context. Two main judges are under pressure from Dr M & his main proxy Daim to resign, God knows what deals are being struck: https://www.thestar.com.my/news/nation/2018/06/10/judicial-conundrum-will-end-when-md-raus-zulkefli-step-down-says-sri-ram/

Mahathir is back with a vengeance. Najib the previous PM is not only being pursued for the massive corruption of !MDB but also for his potential role in the murder of a Mongolian model/escort, in Malaysia that is death penalty stuff. My take on the Sarawak oil issue is that it is partly Dr M's automatic punishment of those who opposed him & also the necessity of keeping essentially all of Malaysia's oil wealth in federal govt hands to meet the very expensive spending commitments he made to get elected. Any judges who make a decision that goes against Dr M will not be judges for long, this they know.

"Dr Jeffrey Kitingan, in a veiled reference to Prime Minister Dr Mahathir Mohamad, said "a person in the top position of the Federal Government could have instructed Petronas to pursue the legal action", given that Sarawak is a Barisan Nasional state." http://www.dailyexpress.com.my/news.cfm?NewsID=125061

And no posts from Harry for 12 hours.....

Steve Staley released his Sarawak update on 21 May before the Petronas court case was filed on 4 June. It would be interesting to know his views on Sarawak in the light of the Petronas case.