Member Info for Jimmy23

GRH,

You may well be correct, as I do not know the equipment leasing market in Morocco.

I just read the predator rns which stated.

“ It is anticipated that the Company will complete and publish a Prospectus in the coming weeks to, amongst other things, enable the return of all shares due to Paul Griffiths and Lonny Baumgardner (including those loaned previously) before the rigless well testing programme commences in Guercif. Additional working capital will be required in the future to help accelerate a potential Compressed Natural Gas development”

Jimmy

GRH,

I too believe that mou 3 results are very important and that the best route to shareholder value is to get to self financing cashflow asap, via cng is a very good way to achieve it, whic is why I am invested here.

With thin sand reservoirs in a basin which underwent two periods of inversion and six periods of compression, compartmentalisation risk is high, particularly with wide spaced 2D seismic and no 3D seismic.

Obviously a good long flow test of mou 1 and mou 3 which proves pressure communication between the equivalent reservoirs in each well would demonstrate if compartmentalisation was an issue or not.

Offshore such a problem could be catastrophic, such as at seven heads gas field, which pg knows well, onshore it requires a higher well density , which at $2.5 million per well is very manageable. That’s why I am invested as the risk is manageable with great upside as Keith has so eloquently described.

The issue is how to get to self sustaining cash flows to drill out the area. Cng is the way to go , , but with no past production sales history and no infrastructure in place , the providers of lease finance will want a big deposit upfront , hence my suggestion of either equity raise or farmout plus royalty as Keith suggested .

The problem is time as predator need funds for the next payment due on Trinidad by end of august I believe.

All manageable with a good sustainable flow rate.

Jimmy

Older and wiser,

The reservoir sands are relative thin and the basin has endured two periods of inversion, so there is a risk of reservoir compartmentalisation which may not be evident on widely spaced two d seismic.

A lengthy production history will help address that, but funds required to do that.

Jimmy

GRH,

Pg has stated he was looking at a farm out type deal previously for Morocco.

In addition he has confirmed he intends to proceed to cng asap.

The predator presentation previously stated capex for 10 mmcf per day cng would be gross $15 million of which predator has to find 75% .

In addition predator need quick funds to pay for Trinidad and if morroco is commercial, as we expect, there is a discovery bonus payment to be made.

Because there is no 3D I think it will be very difficult to get bank finance, so financing options are equity dilution or farm out,

I personally think there is a good chance of 1 tcf in gas but it will need a good deal of drilling and the next stage of the licence requires 3D seismic also.

Of course everything could change if there is a good carbonate reservoir and gas filled in mou4, and I suspect pg would want know if the carbonates work or not before farming out.

It’s going to be a busy few weeks.

Jimmy

Interesting paper previously issued by onhym, page 12 to 15 covers the predator licence area.

https://hydrocarbons.onhym.com/sites/all/themes/hydrocarbure/images/pdf_onshore/Hydrocarbon%20Exploration%20Opportunities_Onshore.pdf

Jimmy

Did predator commission a survey by scotfourth.?

If so can anyone advise where it can be found,

There is a reference to a substantial soil sampling survey previously done on the licence on page 188 of the 2020 cpr at

https://wp-predatoroilandgas-2020.s3.eu-west-2.amazonaws.com/media/2020/02/Predator-Prospectus.pdf

Jimmy

Kingbilly,

Yes, I expected that the gas sales agreements would be completed by now. I suspect they are in final form but waiting on the farm out to complete .

Chariot is likely dealing with very large oil companies and it’s not unusual for legal agreements to take months of very detailed work, hopefully to be completed very soon.

Jimmy

To say in an annual report that there has been a highly competitive farm out process and that the process is in its final stages indicates to me that we will get a lot of news before the Agm in early September, at the latest.

There is 1.6 tcf of proven and very low risk bcf at anchois and even after a farm out chariot will have a substantial share of it.

Jimmy

GRH,

Where is the Michael Caine note you referenced.

J

I believe flow testing is required on both mou 1 and 3 as sidewall cores do not same to have been taken and hence permeability is not known, got to flow test to get information instead as reserves cannot be fully calculated without that.

The Jurassic carbonates in mou 4 will be very interesting as the cpr stated that fracture porosity will be important for reservoir quality.

As the Jurassic is at an elevated depth compared to elswhere in the basin it is well placed to benefit from fractures arising from the six periods of compression and two periods of inversion that this basin has encountered. The geochemical sampling of the basin reported widespread oil indications.

Got to drill to find out, not long to go.

Jimmy

Obviously, predator are well placed to re apply for the 25% licence area which they are required to relinquish , if it’s of any interest.

Jimmy

Carjcarj,

I agree with you that nothing is definitive at this time.

However, my view is that thicker sands with elevated gas readings up dip from proven audited gas in a similar reservoir is very significant.

I don’t see multi tcf gas , perhaps if all goes well then about 1tcf., excluding mou 4.

Jimmy

Gg20,

I think the chance of finding gas in the mou 4 Miocene is probably at about 80 to 85% which is the average for the rharb basin .

The high potential Jurassic carbonate is a good punt at little extra cost, so my guess is a 25% chance of success.

Jimmy

Page of cups,

Thank you for cutting and pasting from recent mou 3 well rns from predator.

Firstly, you failed to mention that wireline logging results had been completed, except for the very shallow horizon for some reason, and that such logs are being referred to nuetech technology for expert reporting.

Readers may enquire as to why this is necessary and the answer was in a previous presentation by predator when it was noted that resistivity logs for gas reservoirs in the Miocene provide a weak signal. It was for this reason predator took over 3 months to announce the results of mou 1, chariot took two weeks to announce the results of its anchois 2 well and then revised such estimates upwards by 50% three months later. So not unusual to have to wait for results in this geology.

2. The reservoirs were thicker than expected with elevated gas levels.

3. The two major sand horizons in mou 3 came in shallower than the equivalent in mou 1, even though the prognosis was for these sands to be deeper in mou 3 than mou 1. That’s very significant for those who understand gas exploration as gas fills from the top of a reservoir down. Hence the shareholder interest in buying these shares while still cheap.

Obviously, all to be confirmed by log results, but very very encouraging.

Jimmy

Gas prices on the move.

https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/1019587/energy-prices-could-skyrocket-again-as-china-recovers-experts-warn-1019587.html

Matt,

Just to clarify your calculations, they only relate to mou fan contingent resources at the p50 pre drill estimate.

We now know that the mou fan encountered 50.5 meters of sand intervals with elevated gas readings, compared to the p50 pre drill estimate of 19 meters.

In addition there are the mou an and 1 sands which are reported to have elevated gas readings and a seismic signature that extends to 59km2.

Obviously, all to be confirmed by third party log analysis , but I suspect you may have to revise your numbers.

Jimmy

The spudding of mou 4 should occur shortly,

It will be drilling for gas up dip from mou 1 and 3. In the Miocene .

Also testing the higher risk Jurassic carbonates.

Page 188 of the prospectus gives a good description of oil seeps in the area.

https://wp-predatoroilandgas-2020.s3.eu-west-2.amazonaws.com/media/2020/02/Predator-Prospectus.pdf

Jimmy

Nigel.

The pre drill prognosis was that the mou 3 well, would encounter gas in the mou fan reservoir below that established in mou 1.

This is illustrated on page 9 of

https://wp-predatoroilandgas-2020.s3.eu-west-2.amazonaws.com/media/2021/09/29105657/Webinar-Presentation-website-Version-28092021-Corrections-15.40pm.pdf

in which the mou 5 well location is now very similar to the actual mou 3 well which has encountered mou fan reservoirs of 50 .5 meters with elevated gas shows similar to that found in the proven gas in mou 1.

Obviously subject to log results, but we have thicker reservoirs with strong gas shows above proven gas in mou 1, not ramping, but put on your seat belts.

Jimmy

Hi GRH,

I agree with you.

Both Ma and mou fan reservoirs came in higher than prognosis, and

The Ma tgb6 sand came in at 11 meters which exceeded the p10 thickness of 10 meters and the sands are equivalent to those at mou1 and the seismic signature of the sands has been increased to58km2, so likely to be p10 volumes previously reported as 659bcf, subject to confirmation of log results of reservoirs with high gas readings.

The mou fan intersected 50. Meters of reservoir compared to a p50 expected thickness of 19 meters. So reserve increase likely to between 294 and 708 bcf being the previous p10 estimate.

Obviously all subject to log confirmation , but we are looking at a reasonable probability of having over 1tcf of net gas.

Hence why the current share price is effectively a call option on these results.

Jimmy

The key factor with regard to funding is does the company market capitalisation grow substantially fast than the equity dilution.

So far it has.

However, in recent years market valuations of small e and p companies has been less inclined to attribute substantial hope values than in previous years, and that’s why the flow test and audited logged gas intervals are so important.

The really rapid growth occurs in my opinion is when a company is self financing and has substantial drilling plans for big increases in reserves.

The plan to progress to cng is the way to go in my opinion.

Jimmy