Member Info for Jimmy23

The forward gas price in Spain for 2024 is $17.88 mcf, great news for chariot.

Jimmy

Nigel

Tank loads of water are easily transported by tanker in Morocco, I do not see it as an issue.

Jimmy

We know that mou 4 encountered 2 meters of 19.9% porosity with elevated gas readings in a structure that is reported to be 127 km2 in size.

The early pre drill estimates are described on page 12 at.

https://wp-predatoroilandgas-2020.s3.eu-west-2.amazonaws.com/media/2021/09/29105657/Webinar-Presentation-website-Version-28092021-Corrections-15.40pm.pdf

What is worth noting is that the expected thickness of the carbonate reservoir is 224 meters.

The mou 4 drill location was focused on the mou fan reservoir and was intended to intersect the carbonate reservoir down dip at the edge of the structure as illustrated on page 13 at

https://wp-predatoroilandgas-2020.s3.eu-west-2.amazonaws.com/media/2023/05/Proactive-Presentation-18-May-2023-FINAL.pdf

It seems like the lower carbonate reservoir was intersected and given that only 2 meters of reservoir were gas bearing it looks like a gas water contact was encountered.

This is supported by the fox Davies report which reduced the prospect size to 125km2.

So the question that remains is how thick is the carbonate reservoir up dip of the mou 4 location and what will the porosity be like updip.

The seismic is indicating 224 meters.

Geologically, the carbonates have undergone substantial elevation and certainly shallower than the carbonates at txf 1 well, the relative shallow depth increases the likelihood that high porosity is widespread as a consequence of carbonate reef exposure to air which results in increased weathering and porosity. This has then been subject to both 6 periods of tectonic compression and two periods of inversion which are likely to induce widespread fracturing, hence the carbonate porosity of 19.9% compared to txf 1 of 8% .

The presence of 2 meters of gas downdip in the structure has validated the top seal.

If there is 224 meters of high porosity carbonates updip in a prospect size of 125 km2 then we are looking at a potential gas volumes of circa 4-5 tcf.

In my opinion, this scenario would explain the cryptic enthusiasm of GRH.

JIMMY

Nigel,

Horizontal wells usually required for reservoirs with low porosity and permeability, no evidence of that in recent wells.

Drilling is very low cost , so I am not worried about multiple wells, the industry expert suggested flow rates in excess of 100 mmcf per day, yet full scale cng only requires 34 mmcf per day.

Don’t understand your logic Nigel.

Jimmy

Clarification,

The porosity of the carbonates below the 2 meters of gas may be gas bearing up dip if the gas water contact was established.

J

I too am excited by the potential of the Jurassic, with two meters of gas bearing rock with porosity of 19.9 % drilled almost at the bottom of 126km sq structure, so it looks like the gas water contact was encountered, but not confirmed.

We need to know what the porosity of the carbonates is below the 2 meters of gas bearing rock as that rock is likely to be gas bearing. Pre drill the prognosis was for over 200 meters of carbonates, post drill we do not know , but predator will know,

I believe we need a corporate presentation to update shareholders on what’s going to happen and on the nuetech analysis of the mou 3 and 4 well logs.

Jimmy

The forward price of natural gas for 2024 in Spain is currently $17.28 per mcf, with chariots project anchois to initially produce 105,000 mcf per day , for 17 years, that’s got to be of huge interest to the major like Total or Shell.

Jimmy

Hi snott,

Fortunately I took a screen shot of the article, which has subsequently been updated to remove the reference to Shell and Total developing Morocco gas reserves.

Here is the quote,

The country has announced plans to build a pipeline network of around 1,100 kilometres, named above, to connect major Moroccan cities and allow gas to be exchanged with other nations. The country has also signed agreements with companies such as Shell and Total to develop its natural gas resources. These agreements will allow Morocco to tap into its estimated 39 billion cubic metres of natural gas reserves. These projects would allow Morocco to export gas to neighbouring countries such as Algeria, Spain and Portugal. This would be a major contribution to the Moroccan economy. With these new investments, Morocco is in an excellent position to become a major gas exporter in Africa, thus being able to take advantage of its natural resources and at the same time generate additional revenues through gas exports.

Jimmy

Speculate,

Hydrogen has a much lower ignition point than natural gas, so there would be a great deal more explosions in a community gas network, where the pipes can be very old. I read a study a year ago on this and it dismissed hydrogen for comunity power.

Chariots green hydrogen is likely to be used in Mauritania for green steel and ammonia which can be shipped to Europe.

Jimmy

i too have read the prospectus cpr a few times now, and unfortunately because it does not include the results of mou 3 and mou 4 it is clearly not up to date.

in particular, i note the assumption that the gross rock volume of the tgb2 reservoir was estimated at 25% of the gross sand interval.

in the mou 3 tgb2 sands there was a gross sand intersection of 59 meters of which 50.5 meters were reported as sands. that’s a net to gross of 85% compared to the cpr of 25% .

in addition, the cpr suggests that due to the sp**** 2 d seismic coverage that the tgb2 sands could in fact be turbidite channel sands instead of turbidite submarine sands. perhaps others might comment on this , however the presence of tgb 2 sands at mou 4 would indicate a greater chance of the submarine fan sands being correct i would have thought.

applying a net to gross of the 43 meters of tgb 2 sand in mou 3 of 85% gives 36 net meters of reservoir , which should be more than enough to get to cng volumes of 34 mmcf per day.

jimmy

Interesting article on Morocco natural gas and total energy role as a major gas producer and exporter at.

https://www.atalayar.com/en/articulo/economy-and-business/morocco-future-major-gas-exporter-africa/20230228140628181964.html

Except the total website does not list total as a gas producer in Morocco. At

https://totalenergies.com/morocco

I wonder where are they going to get the gas to be such a big gas producer in Morocco.

Interesting.

Jimmy

In addition. Oort energy are targeting the development of electroylsers such that hydrogen can be produced from renewable energy at a cost of less than $1 per kg hydrogen , which happens to be cheaper than current hydrogen generated from natural gas.

Great project which shareholders have attributed no value, the abundance of sunshine and wind in Mauritania will make hydrogen production there as one of the lowest cost in the world.

Unicorn waiting.

Jimmy

Hi Henry,

The onshore processing plant is being built in a modular design to facilitate future expansion.

The pipeline from anchois to the processing plant is designed for 150 mmcf per day with an initial plateau of production of 105,mmcf per day .

The successful appraisal of the slightly deeper low risk low cost O sands will increase production to 150 mmcf per day.

Jimmy

Henry,

I believe all shareholders are disappointed by the delay in farming out and FID, however the current chariot is very different from the chariot of old as they have audited gas volumes which could double to circ 1.4 tcf with low risk and low cost deepening of the production wells into the O sands.

Of course the delay was unexpected but working from the completion of a legal heads of terms to a completed legal farmout with a super major and all the internal approvals required therein takes 6 to 9 months, so having to deal with 40 companies who visited the farm out data room was going to take a lot of time and effort to evaluate and bring to a short list. In-house counsel will have been seriously tested.

I when chariot say they are at an advanced stage of farm out I believe them and believe this will seriously re rate the valuations and lead to increases in proven gas in the area.

The onshore licence I think will lead to pleasant surprises as the offshore data is integrated with onshore, particularly the identification of faults that controlled turbidite deposition in the riffian gap.

Jimmy

Been travelling and sailing so just back.

Jimmy

Seabright,

A great summary.

I would add that the additional geological ingredient required is a very good top seal,which will contain the gas from escaping during basin inversion.

In both the rharb basin and guercif basin the blue marls act as a great top seal.

Jimmy

Nigel,

I believe the first step in the mou 1 shallow zone testing is to flow test 45 meters of a potential 300 meters of what were described as unconventional gas.

A horizontal leg would only be required if it proved gas and higher flow rates needed.

Interesting that mou 3 had a very shallow overpressurized reservoir which was unexpected and had to be cased for well control purposes, could that be connected to the shallow gas in mou1?

Jimmy

Project will be a truly giant renewable project on 10gw of both solar and wind.

Solar panels on the edge of a desert will need plenty of cleaning, this will help.

https://www.enelgreenpower.com/media/news/2023/08/innovative-robot-cleaning-photovoltaic-systems

Jimmy

Louis,

The difference between us appears to be that you are applying general small e and p company drilling results to an area the the competent person has stated is geologically similar to the rharb basin with a success rate of over 80% . Furthermore, you appear to give no weight to the rns announcing 43 meters of reservoir with elevated gas readings which happen to be in a shallower depth, updip, from audited gas interesections in the the same geological sequence.

Why is that no highly relevant to derisk the opportunity.

Most investors in oil and gas do not get an opportunity to invest in a low geological risk area which is onshore and in close proximity to a major pipeline , with very low drilling costs, and huge upside from the 150 meters of drilled reservoir which are to be flow tested. Major derisking which appears to be ignored in your generalisations.

Many investors who are on this board are in the money and based on the announced reservoir interesections with elevated gas readings expect to make multiples from here.

At least you have explained your position Louis, and appear to me to have done little research on predator, other than the fact they were going to fundraiser.

Jimmy

Louis,

You have identified the difference between me and oilmanjim, who you have indicated is of the view that very view wells get to cashflow, which is true, except that all three wells drilled by predator to the mou fan target have in fact found gas, which is consistent with the success rate of over 80% as reported in the cpr for the rhab basin, but from your recent posting that seems to have little relevance to you or oilmanjim.

Jimmy