Member Info for Jimmy23

MEM,

The production bonus is paid by the operator to the state.

J

Great news.

Partnering close to conclusion.

Expect a re rate.

Jimmy

Hi Donal,

My understanding that the gas storage system would require a capex of €500 million to re establish kinsale for gas storage.

What makes this noteworthy is that two major Irish companies are involved.

Hence my view that mag mell is probably not favoured by the civil servants.

As the uk interconnect or can only import gas, any gas stored can only be used on the island of Ireland as new pump facilities to re export to uk, that severely limits the market for stored gas. The cost of upgrading the inter connector to export surplus gas is about €200 million, so a limited opportunity. Best for predator to focus on Morocco.

Jimmy

Brv,

The gas to be stored in kinsale would be imported via the uk pipeline and stored in kinsale, just like it used to be.

So I think mag mell is dead concept now.

J

Https://www.theguardian.com/business/2023/oct/30/world-bank-warns-oil-price-could-soar-to-record-150-a-barrel

Https://www.irishtimes.com/business/2023/10/30/moneypoint-could-burn-coal-past-2025-deadline/

More coal burning approved by green environmental minister

Https://www.upstreamonline.com/opinion/is-the-m-a-route-taking-over-from-wildcatting-for-oil-and-gas-players-/2-1-1540974

Https://www.youtube.com/watch?app=desktop&v=Gc2W-FXMspM

Predator announced that testing would begin of mou 3 on or before 16th oct.

Predator stated 43 meters of the mou fan reservoir had been identified by nuetech for flow testing. At an average flow rate for such geology in the adjoining rharb basin of 1.1 mmcf per meter per day results in a flow rate of 47 mmcf per day.

The current price of cng in Morocco is approx $12 mcf of gas. Predator have started negotiations to sell such gas at the well head instead of to end users location by cng. Predator previously advised the cng capex costs for 50 mmcf per day would be approx $100 million, but by selling at the well head predator save the financing and equity dilution of funding such capex in exchange for a lower gas price. I am guessing such a price is $8 mcf , in which case predator would earn $270,000 per day net of royalties, assuming it can sell 47 mmcf per day.

The capex saving then frees up £3.9 million which can be used to drill and test the crabornate reef appraisal well and the shallow mou 3 reservoir by mou3 A well.

A lot to look forward to from these forthcoming test results.

Jimmy

Hi surfit,

Predator budgeted $2.5 million to drill its wells and chariot have budgeted $3 million to drill and test per well for four wells, with the balance of it fundraise for corporate pre anchois development costs and working capital.

They are funded till they can get past costs of anchois reimbursed.

Jimmy

Keith,

I think that was a very old estimate pre mou 2.

Now having drilled mou 1 ,3 and 4 we have circa 150 meters of gas sands to test.

Very good chance of meeting the moroccon cng market of 50 mmcf per day with plenty of capacity for export.

Jimmy

Hi Keith,

I believe we will get a great flow rate from mou 3 that will meet the moroccon cng market.

How did you arrive at 250 mmcf per day though.

Jimmy

B4now

I agree with you that aim market punishes shares when equity dilution is expected, hence the urgency to get to operating cashflow asap.

With regard to Namibia, yes chariot did not find oil, but total and shell have found billions of bbls in the last few years in Namibia. Close but no cigar.

Jimmy

Interesting that the exercise price of the options is 12.5 p per share , approx 14% premium over current share price.

Just checked the forward lng price in Spain and adding $1 per mcf for conversion and transport gives a forward price of $17.85 mcf delivered to Morocco.

That’s the competition from lng.

Jimmy

Nigel,

The important thing about the shell deal to provide lng, is that we now know the benchmark price which is the lng price in Spain, as quoted daily plus a conversion premium and a transportation premium for transport by pipeline from Spain to morroco , an estimate of about $1 mcf .

So a market price for 2024 in Morocco at about $15 mcf.

Yes, please.

Jimmy

Wacky,

Thank you for explaining your basis for the 91tcf gas in place.

Obviously I do not have the well data that Pdr have but it seems to me that mou 4 encountered a gas water contact at the bottom of the 2 meters of gas bearing Jurassic carbonates. Pdr reported this zone had an average gas saturation of 56% and a high of 72%, so likely that some of the zone had gas saturations less than 50% so likely to be near a gas water contact , indicating the potential is updip rather than downdip.

The paper you referenced is indeed interesting, particularly when referencing basin inversions and compression. Those events are likely to induce fracture faulting and improve porosity in the Jurassic carbonates, particularly at the top of structures such as updip from mou4.

Jimmy

Hi surfit,

Morocco has signed an agreement with shell to import lng from shell, delivered to Spain and transported by pipeline to Morocco, so the benchmark price looks like it could be against the lng price delivered in Spain, plus a transportation tarrif.

I think the difficulty is rig costs are high and chariot are negotiating a non recourse loan to cover unexpected capex, so this takes a little longer, all speculation on my behalf.

Jimmy

Ianfor,

No, the exploration farm out market is bad, but the development farm out market is good, hence chariot had over 40 companies looking at the data in the data room.

Patiently waiting.

Jimmy

Mou 4 carbonates most likely encountered a gas water contact at the edge of a 125km2 area structure. So highly likely to be gas bearing up dip provided the structure is continuous , which the seismic confirms . The porosity at 19.9 % in reef carbonates occurs because of the reef exposure to air after deposition causes leeching and hence porosity., so highly likely to be high porosity up dip also.

We do not know how much carbonate reservoir was encountered below the gas water contact at mou 4 and this would be important for predator to disclose because such reservoir will be gas bearing up dip also.

As it was not disclosed, I am assuming that porosity below the gas water contact was poor , but there is very good reason to believe it will be good above the gas water contact. Pg announced that a field trip was to occur to examine carbonate reef outcrops at the surface in the region. If these have high porosity then it’s a near certainty that up dip in the structure will have high porosity also.

Anxiously waiting on such results from his recent trip to Morocco.

My rough estimate of potential is 4 or 5 tcf, subject field trip results confirming porosity at outcrop.

Jimmy