Member Info for Jimmy23

Nigel,

I am delighted to learn that you are a ruthless anyltical guy, because so am I. and I have 30 plus years in oil and gas.

So I would be pleased to get your opinion on what you believe are the implications of finding two meters gas bearing of 19% porosity carbonates at the bottom of a huge 126km2 structure that has been elevated to a very shallow depth with an average thickness of 200 to 250 meters of carbonate horizon which may be gas bearing up dip from a possible gas warter contact, in a basin that’s been inverted twice and compressed at least four times, what does that do reservoir porosity and permeability.

Obvious for those that have an eye for detail.

Jimmy

Nigel

We all know that predator will need more money, but it’s identified a low cost route to generate early cashflow which will fund the follow on capex for export to power stations and eu market.

Dilution is mentioned as almost a dirty word as many investors equate an increase in shares with little or no increase in asset values.

If the dilution results in a substantial increase in asset values then share values increase, that’s what I think we are witnessing in predator.

There is over 150 meters of reservoir encountered to date with high gas readings in reservoirs that are above the proven gas in mou 1, while it’s not proven till it flows, it’s highly likely to flow gas in considerable volume. Even if you apply a rharb basin average flow rate of 1.1 mcf per meter that’s a combined flow rate of 165 mmcf per day, which at chariots average. Forecast gas price of $12 mcf is $1.9 million gross revenue per day or $1.48. Million per day to predator.

With low capex onshore, I am not worried about equity dilution to bring that opportunity into cash production

Jimmy

It’s my experience that trading before a placing is frequently identified by AT trades with the in-house brokers moving the price down ahead of a discounted placing.

The trading in predator does not have those attributes.

Furthermore, as the ceo is the largest shareholder he does an incentive to minimise dilution associated with growth in asset values.

Jimmy

The appraisal of the Jurassic carbonates updip of the mou 4 location will not only confirm the gas updip but also the reservoir porosity and permeability after flow testing.

The fox Davies estimate of 484 bcf for the carbonates was based on an assumption that there is 20 meters of reservoir through out the structure.

The thickness of the carbonates is over 200 meters, so potential significant upside here.

This may require 3D and lots of appraisal wells to more accurately determine reserves, ideal for a farm out.

Jimmy

Thank you GRH for posting the sandjet technology link.

Great to see that such technology can be used with coiled tubing and packers to test individual sand packages to get the most flow test information.

Jimmy

Hi Kingbilly,

I believe the offshore discoveries in Namibia are now at about 12 billion bbls, pity chariot missed out .

The farm out market died in Namibia all those years ago and chariot did not have production income to stay in the game and hence dilution, that’s why low cost exploration and production onshore Morocco is so important.

When the chariot onshore licence gets issued I will post the link to published papers that indicate to me why this onshore move could be very much more than many people think.

Jimmy

Hi King Billy,

I have been studying the controlling deposition faults of the rifian corridor , which control the turbidite deposits offshore, and guess where these faults are onshore,

Excited.

Jimmy

BDC,

There are a few good reasons for the recent fundraiser ahead of the farm out of anchois.

1. The anchois reservoirs are Miocene turbidite sands, these are sands that have been reworked from a shallower deposition environment and deposited in fault controlled settings offshore in previous geological time. It’s likely that such substantial sand reservoirs came from a deltaic deposition area to the east, in what is now onshore. So if chariot can identify such an area from the geology of its huge offshore 3D seismic coverage, then such an area could have very large gas potential, in a low drilling cost area near a pipeline.

2. It’s likely that some of the 40 companies that visited the data room will have been aware of such potential, so urgent to move quickly to secure the acreage.

3. We do not know what the farm out is going to be, but it may include non recourse debt to finance part of chariots share of capex, so chariot would benefit from having an independent cashflow while non recourse debt is repaid from anchois cashflow.

I am looking forward to learning about chariots onshore drilling plans, I think there is a pleasant surprise waiting.

Jimmy

Edark,

Here are my suggested answers to your questions.

1. Potential to participate in future placing, answer, based on past fundraising practice this is unlikely. I suggest you contact the company broker and register your interest in participating. Likely to be large investors only.

2. Prd have previously stated they plan to drill the Jurassic updip later this year. The pipeline is less than 10k from wells, so no problems to connect, plenty of spare capacity in the pipeline.

3. Discuss rational for sharing information with others. Answer, we do not know this, but it’s likely they do discuss information with advisers and they will be bound by the insider trading rules accordingly. If you are aware of a breach of such rules you can provide your evidence to the financial services authority.

4. Availability to discuss matters with management. Answer, prd put a substantial amount of information into the public domain . The company usually host an investor presentation London which is also online and questions can be asked at that, when it occurs.

I suggest that you read the last competent persons report and then using those assumptions for estimated recoverable gas, recalculate the numbers based on the results of mou 1, mou 3 and 4 and you will be pleasantly surprised to reach approx 1.5 tcf net to prd, including the 484 bcf which fox Davies estimated for the Jurassic.

Predator will no doubt be preparing their own calculations, so DYOR and you will be pleasantly surprised.

Jimmy

MEM,

Pg stated that the very shallow zone in mou 3 had overpressurized gas, and pg stated that each sand intersection below that to the mou fan had gas shows. That’s what we know.

We do not know if there was overpressurized gas all the way from shallow horizon to mou fan.

Perhaps when we get the neutech analysis we will find out more.

We are most likely looking at gas volumes at the p10 range of outcomes, plus the Jurassic carbonate which fox Davies reported at 484bcf.

Jimmy

Hi older and wise,

In planning to drill the mou 2 well, and bearing in mind that the mou fan reservoir was overpressurised, predator had to be prepared to have sufficient drilling capability to handle any unexpected high pressure reservoirs to avoid a blow out. My understanding is that scenario was a 1000 ft gas column reservoir, which was not encountered.

Hope that clarifies the comments.

Jimmy

Hi MEM, Ab,

The 1000 ft gas column was a safety case scenario which predator were required to address for permitting.

The gas cloud is to the east of mou 2.

We do know that mou 3 encountered a 10 meter sand at a very shallow level that was overpressurized , amazingly it does not appear to have been logged. In the proactive interview pg stated that all of the reservoirs encountered in mou 3 had strong gas shows. So potentially there are more reservoirs to be reported as gas bearing after nuetech complete their work.

Jimmy

Bubblepoint,

I accept that till it flows the predator carbonate discovery onshore is not proven, it’s just 19.9% logged porosity with 56% gas saturation.

What I was really wanting to discuss is that such a well appears to have found good porosity and hopefully good permeability. The fact that its Jurassic carbonate structure was substantially elevated in a nearby onshore basin that’s been inverted twice and four times compressed may well result in favourable conditions for fracture porosity and permeability. Interesting to learn if chariots new onshore acreage has anything similar.

Jimmy

Predator have proven good gas bearing reservoir in the Jurassic carbonates onshore Morocco.

Chariot has identified substantial unspecified deeper gas prospects below anchois , the enclosed paper describes the overall geology potential

http://en.earth-science.net/article/exportPdf?id=6346edd7-5a30-4fd5-a731-483f78a090c9&language=en

Jimmy

Yes, that’s true, but what frequently happens in that situation is that there is a gas swop between parties using a pipeline, so even if gas is imported to morroco via the pipeline, chariot can swap gas delivered into Morocco for gas delivered into Spain. Not an issue and higher prices in Spain.

Jimmy

Remember, Namibia,

Chariot retains the right to a 10% interest in the adjacent block to that held by Santana energy.

https://sintanaenergy.com/news-release/update-on-pel-87-in-the-orange-basin-in-namibia-sintana-retains-a-carried-indirect-inteerest/

Jimmy

Interesting article on outlook for European gas prices

https://www.upstreamonline.com/lng/stern-warning-natural-gas-prices-poised-for-ugly-market-conditions-in-months-ahead/2-1-1484070

Jimmy

Hi dicko

Why are valuing prd at 10% of the npv10%?

J

Hi dicko

Why are valuing prd at 10% of the npv10%?

J

Colon,

For reserved based lending you need p90 audited reserves, with customers in place and a good sustainable production history, so I do not see that happening soon. More likely cng equipment could be leased, but it’s my opinion that is likely to require a high upfront deposit, others here have different views and that’s ok.

I believe a significant upgrade to previously audited prospective resources will occur, 1 to 2 tcf in my view, the higher prospective resources quoted on this board are not supported by the data yet.

Jimmy