Member Info for Jimmy23

The forward price of gas in Spain for 2024 has increased nearly 20% and approaching €45 kwh.

Great news for a future gas producer.

Jimmy

Report from onhym on the basin suggests that Jurassic carbonates could have pgood porosity and permeability at

https://hydrocarbons.onhym.com/sites/all/themes/hydrocarbure/images/pdf_onshore/Hydrocarbon%20Exploration%20Opportunities_Onshore.pdf

Interesting salt features in the cross sections.

Jimmy

Good geology article from geo expro at

https://geoexpro.com/productive-petroleum-basins-of-morocco/

Interesting to note the oil seeps around the basin.

Still looking to find Jurassic carbonate porosity and permeability information.

Jimmy

GRH,

Thank for your observations regarding the carbonates. I understand that the hurrasic carbonate at mou 4 is considerably shallower than elsewhere in the basin, but can you kindly direct me to where there may be additional information regarding its porosity and permeability.

Thanks

Jimmy

Keith,

Great post.

We know that the basin went through two periods of inversion, which would usually be a problem for relatively thin gas sand reservoirs if the top seal gets breached. The good news is that the combination of mud flows and salt movement has created a very effective top seal at anchois and at mou which has an extra top seal of marls. That feature gave rise to multiple reservoirs and separate gas water contacts at anchois and I am expecting similar results from mou 3.

With regard to the Jurassic, it’s clearly got enormous potential at an rough estimate of 4 bn bbls, and it’s very much higher risk, but worth a look as the extra cost is small to drill at the mou 4 location.

I do have a concern that the carbonates may not have porosity and permeability, got to drill to find out.

Jimmy

Nigel,

The water will be delivered in tankers and applied under high pressure, it’s not an issue.

Jimmy

At a drilling rate of approx 100 meters pear day, we should be encountering the tgb 4 sand reservoir in about one week.

The tgb 6 reservoir is above this but I think it’s high risk as there was no gas in mou 2 at that level.

The fact that the mud seal over the tgb 2 reservoir is overpressurized at mou 3 , based on seismic interpretation, will hopefully lead to gas in the tgb 2 reservoirs .

Going to be an interesting two weeks.

Jimmy

Https://www.moroccoworldnews.com/2023/06/355784/sdx-energy-renegotiates-gas-sales-agreement-in-morocco-securing-higher-production-prices

Jimmy

Hi nick,

The sequence of events that I would expect are,

Receive binding quotes for the development, then sign gas sales agreements contingent on permitting, then sign project finance and partnering if relevant, then Fid.

We know that chariot have agreed the gsa in principle, and have gone out to get binding quotes for the development, so it should all be coming together soon.

Jimmy

Hi kb,

Still here and still holding.

The answer from Ap in the Q and A was calendar year.

Waiting on news like the everyone.

Jimmy

King Billy,

The H1 target was disclosed by AP in a question and answer session with shareholders late last year.

Jimmy

Hi Keith,

Page 19 of the sept 22 presentation actually labels the seismic line of the base mou fan as a seismic flat spot.

Thanks for the reply anyhow,

Jimmy

Keith

Page 12 of the presentation includes a seismic line at the mou 3 well location.

Do you see a seismic flat spot at the base of the mou fan ?

Jimmy

Hi Dgdg1

This is the weakest time of the year for gas prices, so to get a more accurate assessment look at the forward market for Spain for 2024 which is currently approx $13.20 mcf, so the landed price in Morocco is likely to be in excess of $14.00 mcf,

At present european gas prices are determined by USA lng prices which are expected to increase as China demand comes back after the covid lock-ins.

Clearly the value of chariot is dependant on the gas price and gas volumes, I think it’s highly likely that 150 mmcf per day will be reached after about three years but starting at 105 mmcf initially , the average price is an estimate but I think $12 mcf seems achievable.

Accordingly, I think your valuation of 30p is too low.

Jimmy

Hi Dgdg1

The reference to the new power station conversion is at the link below, a 900 mw power plant.

Jimmy

https://www.africa-energy.com/news-centre/article/morocco-onee-tenders-900mw-gas-fired-power-plant

Hi Dgdg1

I read this about four weeks ago. I will try to find the source and revert . What it means is that moroccon demand will increase.

Jimmy

Morocco previously announced they are converting another power station from coal to gas, so the power demand will increase to 150 mmcf per day and prices likely to be in the range of $8 to $10 per mcf.

The relevant price competitor in Morocco is to replace dirty coal.

Jimmy

Pageofcups,

The mou 3 will target two principal reservoirs , the tgb3 and 4 reservoirs which have a previously reported 34% chance of success , before being dersiked by mou 2 top seal.

Then there is the tgb2 reservoir which is a contingent resource, so it’s proven as declared by the competent persons report . So it’s higher than the 81% comparison you referenced.

Please try to understand there are multiple targets with different risk profiles.

Jimmy

Page of cups,

I think you need to re read the presentations as you have confused a lot of factors.

J

The forward price of gas in Spain for 2024 is €45.86 per mwh, substantially higher than current spot prices which are typically low at this time of year.

Jimmy