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I'm hoping the lack of news is that the test is ready and they're waiting for approval now from key agencies like the FDA, rather than release a pointless RNS that says the test is ready for approval, give us 10-14 weeks, so its not actually ready.
Incredible only if they ever release a test. At this rate the cancer one will be ready first.
Imagine if we enter August with still no optimised test, can see the board rampers getting even more aggressive.
Hoping Monday will bring good news
The SP will go back to 270/280 until we get another sales RNS with either US orders or details of successful tenders. Results of trials won't make zip all difference until they've turned in to £££.
If you want instant gratification, try online roulette.
Glad I'm still mostly in here. Have a small percentage in Avacta at £1.10ish on hope they might pull it off - there are users on that board absolutely seething with rage, filtering anyone who dare question anything, it's quite amusing knowing we're getting orders and contracts in areas they assumed they would get :D
Avacta will still be best for at home testing, there's nothing in the novacyt pipeline for that, but that's 2-4 months away from being realised, by which time other players will move in.
NCYT have played a blinder, a cracking US sales update will see this hit £4 in next month or two. Will be a fantastic Xmas!
Seems a well thought out, logical and balanced view point.
A rare sight in the Avacta boards nowadays where you have desperate rampers claiming to have 'filtered' you like JDT, but then mysteriously reply to any post. Have said before, Avacta will come good in October, a nice steady £2+ sp, so a 100% profit for those that did their research.
I smell a resignation... If there's a delay to the test release then surely they have to announce it. Only hopeful explanation is that they're delaying news release for a few days due to what other companies have announced. The naieve hopeful side of me says its a tactical decision rather than utter incompetence. They should swap CEOs with novacyt, they make a great product but can't write a good RNS for toffee, Avacta can sell a good story but so far haven't shown they can back that up.
We've already had an 8000% increase this year, beating every stock in the world. Ok, it's slipped back down since, but what more do you want?! Youve missed the boat if you wanted a SNG style rise. We're the price where we are until we get US sales figures, if they're as good as we're hoping, we'll be back in the £3.50-£4.00 range giving a nice 30% profit, unexpectedly good, as in extra £20m revenue a month, then £5-£6. If they're poor, under £5m a month then we'll just stay where are until details of the PHE contract come in.
NCYT have been busy tying up contracts, extending those with PHE and Germany. They haven't released US sales figures yet which are expected over next month. By the time the contracts end they will have made £300m+ in revenue and covid will be dying out. Avacta need the home/ small business testing market right now, ncyt have the in hospital testing cornered, air ports are using them, and now have mobile labs for sports industry, care homes, big businesses.
We don't know how good the Avacta test is yet, we should have had news now, which is worrying.
Excellent. Let's hope the govt can wait till September for orders as that's when our test will be approved at the earliest. We've missed being part of the £5bn tender and now we're missing this. What the hell are the board playing at?
I'm sure the finished test is about ready and we'll have an RNS in next week, FDA approval probably 6-8 weeks at best based on previous experience. If you haven't the patience to wait until October for sales to start rolling in then get out now. Vaccine take up with young people will be lowz so there will still be a need for testing
Issue is if covid disappeared tomorrow and 90% of revenue disappeared where would the SP be? I think that is what is frightening long term investors off. Unless theres a compelling reason to stay, we perhaps have 12, maybe 24 months before vaccines are likely and social distancing abolished. I don't think this hit near £5 again. And I'm heavily invested here. Most won't admit, but as soon as this hits £3.50-£4.00 they'll sell, make a 30%+ profit and move on, and learn that by the time you've heard of a company on aim, you're already far too late to make the big money. Feel a bit for those heavily invested at £4.50 or above, sentiment drove the price far above where it should have been.
If the affirmers were that fantastic they'd be shouting about them from the rooftops, saying how they're far more accurate than envisaged, rather than merely being 'encouraged' (my wife would write school reports to say a kids progress was 'encouraging' to be diplomatic when they were far behind were they should be) in their words, of course that sort of talk will get you labelled as a deramper on here despite being invested. I still think a viable product is some weeks off, unless Avacta happy to release at 'good enough' rather than perfect, I have no doubt when released it could be hugely beneficial over the length of time RT PCR testing takes and be used in environments where PCR testing isn't appropriate, and I'll probably rebalance my portfolio towards Avacta more. How long things like approval will take is what could limit its marketability and revenue. Hope the FDA turn it around quicker than they did for NCYT, otherwise you're talking 2-3 months
An RNS to say they have a test that works and has been approved would be nice before the end of summer. It's a saturated market we're entering so profit expectations will need to be tempered. NCYT are making a steady £20m+ a month which is increasing and they're barely holding on to a £3.00 sp. They've got several airport gigs which Avacta were hoping to get, they've tendered for the £5bn govt contract, something Avacta unbelievably not been ready for.
Approvals are the key, govt health depts around the world won't touch the test otherwise, and relying on business to purchase (and again for UK needs to be an approved test) just won't generate the revenue. Next 4 weeks are absolutely crucial for this company.
I'm expecting around £3 today, and for SP to bounce between £2.80 and £3.10 over next few weeks. August sales update, in particular US, will be crucial as to whether we're treading water at £20m sales a month /£2.70 SP, or if we're getting £30m and therefore £3.50-£4.00 possible. Maybe even announcement if we're part of the £5bn govt package, I'd take 1%. Have said many times, the autumn period is crucial for us as countries stock up for winter. Current RNS shows we're on the right path, so I'm pretty confident we'll be seeing £4-£4.50 by end of autumn, which is when I'll probably lower my holding, take a nice 30% and buy in to more mainstream stocks. If everything goes better than expected we might hit £5 by year end, wouldn't expect higher than that as vaccine likely next year, and competitors like Avacta might have joined the market by then.