Member Info for jimbobtechstock

Good to see you're still around Bermudashorts. Hope you're well?
I held my AMYT through all the deramps and took profits over last couple of weeks for a solid multibag. I was thinking of getting into Open Orphan but it has left the station already. I'm looking at other medical investments if you have any tips...

Anyone on here from the STGR days?

Either that or some other deal including stock. They have cash already and Bryan Garnier is not an AIM fodder placing broker so I suspect whatever is being lined up is a longer-term funding deal related to getting the phIII underway somehow. No idea what sort of arrangement tho

Anyone think that Amryt just inherited a really bad share register from Fastnet RTO?

Is it possible that Bronx, who's thought it worth his while deramping here for 2 years, might be a trader got caught hideously short by the RTO? After all no-one predicted 28p at the time, or whatever the opening price was, and the bears were straight in here.

And now during the global weakness of pharma stock, especially clinical-stage start ups (Nasdaq clinical stage pharmas down 22% in October) the shorter is here for the kill?

Holding for the bounce. It has to come unless I'm very wrong about Amryt. I know from my 10years+ trading AIM that no-one puts in the effort to deramp without having a position to make it worth their while. No-one.

Plus points:
- The FDA do not grant Priority Review Vouchers very often at all. Goes a long way to validating the approach. Should we get FDA approval this voucher alone will be VERY valuable (they have sold in the past around the $100m mark) which will fund ramp-up of sales.
- AP103 is a VERY interesting proposition. Preclinical work due this quarter
- New European healthcare reimbursememts validates Lojuxta clinical need + price point
- Large scale expansion of Lojuxta in license area will bear fruit over the coming months, since it will have taken some time for the new in-country reps to scale up

Yes I have a long position so am biased, but readers should bear in derampers are also biased.

OpenOrphan is not a competitor to Amryt. It's not a zero-sum game where only one specialist orphan drug company out of Ireland can succeed.

There's no evidence (yet) Alan Harris is selling. When I spoke to Nomad in Spring at time of the court case I was told the settlement did not force Harris to sell his holding. He might subsequently have decided to but there hasn't yet been any TR1 so it's just speculation.

An alternative theory is that whoever too Friel's shares back in Spring had tried to flip them for profit and was caught out by a bear attack and has been forced to offload them at a loss.

Who knows whether Amryt will place down here but that's just speculation. They drew the next tranche of the EIB loan as planned and have the growing revenues from Lojuxta. I don't know how much they paid for AP103 and I heard a rumour they were trying to sell AP102. It's all just speculation.

But the price IMO is now very very cheap. For a drug company with growing revenues plus multiple candidates.

not forgetting of course that AP101 is Episalvan, which is ALREADY licensed in the EU for partial thickness wounds.

So the EB treatment is just one avenue. The potential use as a treatment of radiotherapy burns as well as other potential uses announced in spring is another avenue. And the fallback is the value in Episalvan.

Derampers are biased by potential financial gain seeing the SP fall, period. They set a mood that suits their agenda.

... Of POSTS here is a sign of investor/trader interest in CPX. No wonder it's been spun and I'm not going to make predictions over what happens next re share PRICE but thanks to the wonderful posts below about the court cases adding evidence to my earlier post about what side of the trade you'd want to be on for CPX going forwards...

It would be a brave trader to stay too short for too long here. Whilst I'd love to see CPX go for the jugular I think a settlement is equally likely. As stated below the sums involved will be significant.

Also TDK alone coming on board may tip others over into licensing.

Additionally there's a huge case for secondary infringement from OEMs importing devices (ie high end computer storage) products with infringing components on board. E.g. Chinese component manufacturers themselves are highly unlikely to license, far more likely to infringe. As Trump keeps banging on about. But any OEM using infringing components could be in the firing line and import injunctions are possible against e.g. a phone, if the manufacturer is using an infringing supercap.

Huge year for CPX. I know I said this 2 years ago, and it was. This is another.

Yes the upfront from AVX needs backfilling, but we know AVX have massively grown their range since first launch, with various spins (e.g. low ESR/high power variants) so if the first year's royalty portion was £250k and it's grown 20% yoy it must be significant now.

No numbers available for TDK. Fair enough but if you probably have a feel for Kongats after all these years. Would he be more or less likely to strike a "Murata" peanuts royalty deal today? I don't see it myself. Far more likely IMO he held out for an AVX-type deal. Whether or not there's up-front will depend on the details but what made AVX pay those up front fees back then? Almost unheard of on AIM, for company to get almost 50% uptick in revenue from one up-front payment.

AVX paid then, so why not TDK now?

Also remember the revenues in today's RNS include a pitiful 1H that probably won't be repeated this year.

Indeed, but anyone who's ever invested in a business for long enough to see it through from seed to profitable exit knows how much longer than expected it all takes.

I had personally hoped that 2015 would be that year, but that was just the inflection point on the long term chart. And what a great stock CPX has been for buyers in 2015, at 1p!

Which is all relevant history as it explains the fluctuations and trading, now 10x up from all time low.

As far as "jam tomorrow" yes, CPX has become a bit of a joke amongst casual dabblers, because it's been here on the verge of profitability for the last 3 years.

But it's all explainable. There was the niche business selling own-brand thinline at $10 a pop, and sales teams struggling to convince OEMs when you don't pay 5x that for a CPU.

CPX pretty much axed that business after winning AVX.

It's a journey. I understand what has gone wrong, what has gone wright, why things have moved on, why things have not.

After numerous false starts I genuinely think the current period will at the very least be cashflow generative, if not outright profitable, based on the numbers published today and the TDK deal, together with taking Spire as a sign that "wearables" have finally moved into production and there's a lot more engineers could be doing with supercapacitors (and it's taken a while for it to sink in).

For example I thought Murata would have a larger hybrid battery by now. The fact they don't yet doesn't mean they won't. And the reason they haven't yet is probably down to the focus being on integrating Sony batteries.

It all takes time but I really do think our time will come.

"So come on TT and all your pals what is your explanation for todays huge drop"

You got to be kidding, right?

Of course ONE of the reasons a price drops is because people sell. And they sell because of those little seeds of doubt: do I understand this company? Are there too many sellers around? etc etc etc.

Seed of doubt sowed here mainly by ONE POSTER!!!

IN private pretty much everyone I spoke to predicted a drop. Market doesn't like being reminded a company is still loss making despite bagging a couple of big wins recently. In fact the casual buyers brought in recently may well have closed their punts as these results are the first they've learned about the company.

Others, maybe some LTHs, will have left because, as some have said, the journey feels never-ending.

But, Christ alive! We just won TDK FFS.

Once today is over, taking all things into consideration, what position would you least want to have on CPX?

Worth remembering that these figures were widely trailed and are in line with expectations.

Since the end of the period: TDK and Spire in the Apple stores.

Worth also remembering that historically CPX has been reasonably well traded by shorts and longs and we've been hammered on results day more often than not.

I don't doubt that the negative posts as well as the selling today is all part of a long term strategy to milk the most from CPX on the swings.

But the TDK news gap is now well and truly closed; a gap that, arguably, should not have closed due to it representing a fundamental change in outlook. (But this is AIM...!) Conservatively it's another AVX and should go a long way to closing the A$1.6m loss and certainly tip it over into cash generative (assuming incentive plans carry on using stock and the R&D rebate is received as per previous years).

Bullishly it's a turning point, putting 3 Japanese components giants (Murata, TDK and Kyocera - AVX parent) in a position where they're all licensing the same tech so don't have a competitive advantage. Surely one will move?

As far as I understand GAAP legal costs incurred in the reported year would be attributable to the period, I don't think they can be accrued but I'm prepared to be corrected.

I think one of the few ways this can happen is when the company has paid for goods and services in advance of delivering a project that is accounted for in the subsequent period. Otherwise for most other staff costs etc they have to account for it in the current period.

I could be wrong even on that, but the fact is they have booked an A$1.6m loss, as expected, but the cash portion of that loss they claim is A$700k.

There has to be an explanation and given the way Cap-XX has carried itself over the years I think the reason is more likely to be 100% above board, in which case I see this as a sign that activity is going to be higher in 1H.

At first I was worried by the cash position, it's down A$1.9m YoY yet the cash loss for the full year is booked as only A$700k.

"Statement of cash flows" section of the accounts shows clearly receipts are down (that we know, largely due to the terrible 1H) but yet "payments to suppliers and employees" actually INCREASED by A$700k.

Having checked inventory, payables and receivables to find nothing of note the only explanation I can think of is that they're ramping up for something. Because if that increase in payments was attributable to the financial year covered by the report, then it would have to be accounted for in the loss, but it doesn't seem to be.

So unless I'm misreading this, the uptick in payments coming out of the bank in the last financial year must be accounted for in the coming 1H, and signify increased activity ie ramp up?

Unless I'm misreading this.

Other than that, the results are in line with the guidance posted middle of summer.

Since then we've had Spire in the Apple stores and TDK, which I believe is a huge huge win. Firstly, it is further validation of the patents. The 2 ongoing cases in the US brought by CPX are currently being defenced by mid-level players. I think the fact that 3 majors have paid for licenses means these companies' own lawyers think the patents are valid.

Secondly TDK will likely be on similar terms to AVX, *NOT* Murata. Deramper below rightly states that Murata revenues are - as they always were - disappointing. That's because Murata were early adopters, CPX needed Murata more than Murata needed CPX.

AVX revenues are far better and now with TDK it will be even better.

Thirdly there's some evidence to say TDK were selling EDLC-type supercaps prior to the license agreement. I can't be sure of this but there's a possibility the deal included a "settlement" element.

Anyway - it's all to play for IMO. No surprise we got traded to the floor on results day; that's happened nearly every year on CPX.

But there's absolutely no dispute the cash in the bank will see them through AT LEAST another year, and then some. And that's without this apparent ramp-up I see.

And once today is out of the way I can't see anyone wanting to be too short here for too long. "Risks" for the shorter include an outright bid for CPX, court cases collapsing ie won, another large licensing deal, or another large-scale consumer product.

On the latter, as I've posted frequently, I see a fitbit-style device with kinetic energy capture being an almost cert. To compete with Spire you're looking at something that needs charging daily versus replacing batteries twice every three years! The next innovation I think will be seeing devices charge themselves from body movements.

Put my views on the twitter group, if anyone wants to join search me out but I refuse to engage on a biased platform riddled with brokers and where IDs with privileged access can dominate conversations. Not necessarily here but this board has its share of obsessives too.

Rational medical and evidence-lead business discussions work better in private IMO.

Bronx is a classic deramp/troll though so don't listen to his horse feed.

He wasn't expecting 8/8mil revs for Lojuxta because the exact figures were published 19 July as forward guidance.

It's pretty clear the usual traders/funds have their claws in here playing a long game and then using share BBs to rinse out weaker holders and nervous PIs. Holding for the LT here it's a great company with a unique blend for AIM.

The priority review voucher is validation of the need. If Amryt get approval they voucher alone will fund the sales roll-out for EB. The NHS reimbursement is validation of the price point and clinical need for Lojuxta as NICE set a high bar for reimbursement.

IND approval was a necessary hurdle cleared. AP103 is being developed although we didn't know that, with the preclinical studies due for readout soon.

The only unknown is as commented previously, AP102. I heard a deal was being worked to offload that asset but it doesn't seem to have come off, or is taking longer than thought. But that would just be a bonus, not expecting it.

I won't pretend I'm not frustrated at yet another 100% hugely manipulated AIM pharma but I'm pretty buoyed at the moment. Key for me was that the cash figure pulished 19th July did NOT include drawdown from the EIB loan.

They spent a reasonable amount in H1, understandable given the IND studies, the work into other potential uses for Episalvan, the acquisition and development of AP103 and of course the ramp-up of trial centres for the EB study.

It's a company driving forwards, using the revenue from Lojuxta to offset the cost of development, and building their distribution network for one specialist treatment in advance of (hopefully) launching others. Europe-first approach is also unique, as many companies focus on USA/FDA then apply to expand into Europe.

It's an uncrossing trade at closing auction therefore the official close price. Used as a hedging strategy for trading the next day. Bears still have their claws in here, which is a huge shame after 2 years of progress on Lojuxta and an apparently fantastic newsflow of late. I never sold a bean, still love the look of this but let's see if anything lurking in the results before getting overly confident.

Good to see familiar faces still here. I bought back much of my APC shares over the summer. Not quite as large a holding as I had previous to MR almost crashing the plane but felt things were starting to look a bit more stable.

Bought my first tranche just before the Aspen acquisition - I know some might have had flashbacks to MR's 'nam, reading about acquisitions starting again... But this thankfully is not debt funded. Aspen did have £1m debt on the books at time of acquisition which seems reasonable for expected EBITA of £0.55m from Aspen business for upcoming Apsen results. I'm expecting some overhead/corp costs reduction fitting Aspen into APC so hopefully that will grow more next year (gross profit figure of £1.35m was given for Aspen's previous full year results)

I know I and others have been talking about this turnaround/recovery at APC for a couple of years now but... Like a broken clock...

Company wants to keep price per license quiet so they can strike individual deals. Common practice, they might have given a huge discount to Samsung to get a big name behind, on the prospect of selling more. Who knows but I'm not surprised by no financials.

The huge orchestrated attack on sentiment here smacks of more than silly games or old arguments playing out. Wouldn't be surprised to see something else come out

Just added a brief blog on Feedback. If anyone wants to join the twitter group send me a DM on twitter, we added 2 today, it might be on the cusp of starting to make something positive from this ridiculous market pullback.

https://twitter.com/jimbobtechstock/status/1039851593749983232

I don't think AR answered the "cash position" question very well on the recent proactive video. He sounds to have answered it honestly! Which on AIM where investors are used to emphatic lies from CEOs might be a strange thing and have caused market to wobble this week.

He said cash was OK but they could always do with more to reinvest into growth. Which would go down incredibly well if AR was pitching at an Angel event.

We know He Who Cannot Be Named has had a very negative agenda here, I can only assume some personal battle or similar from the past boiled over and to Him it's now more important to be proved Right than make ROI on his investment.

I happen to have some similar observations to Elartu below which supports the scenario that He was actively selling earlier on in the year whilst deramping on both this board and in a private group where I was a member.

It just doesn't make sense, unless your aim is not to make money but to be PROVED RIGHT.

In which case I do wonder whether there might be some kind of punishment short opened here by Himself.

Mind you it's a dire market across the board (I can't blame Him for doing all my portfolio in at the same time) and it's entirely possible there's just sellers panicking (maybe based on a the stream of negative views posted here for months).

I am now convinced FDBK has proved it can sell this tech to clinics. That's something that was not a given, and should have been greeted by the market with open arms.

Anyway, I will mostly stick to Twitter where it is incredibly rare for anyone to be able to get posts deleted.

That I had said at the start of the year that the one thing this company needed to do now was to prove it could sell the technology. It has looked very promising for a long time now, with plenty of research interest and sales to research organisations, and the one question more important than anything else IMO was: can then sell it? I had said previously that if there was no sales by end of the year I would sell my holding. It's not been an easy ride last few months as I had built up my shareholding partly based on the idea that we would see a bounce when TB stopped selling, but now I'd rather be sat in this position and waiting for the market to catch up than be sat at a slightly higher SP but not having got the GE deal and 2 orders in.

I know I was optimistic about his appointment at the time, but Crabb got it wrong IMO. One thing TB showed is that it is possible to run this company on a shoestring, should the BOD be inclined to look at the big picture and not siphon funds as emoluments.

There was a raise back in spring and as per my previous post, AR and another director agreed to take shares in lieu of fees.

Should there be a will within the BOD to push this over the hump and get the sales in first then a fundraise is not a given. It's a big question and a hard one to overlook given previous CEO's RNS over summer but I really hope the BOD is now in a mood to knuckle down and capitalise on the momentum starting to build.