Member Info for jimb2

Some interesting connections with Amapa Minerals the company managing the Tucano mine, easily within their financial capacity to take on the entire project and railroad if they had the appetite, and Brazilian based, acquisitions in the hundreds of millions up to near $1.5bn.

From an interview on the restart of Tucano gold mine:

Interviewer: It’s Brazilian?

Interviewee: 100% Brazilian. We are a 100% Brazilian management firm. It’s a firm that works with what the market calls "special situations" investments. So, we look for a certain complexity in investments to acquire and deploy resources from the shareholders who trust the firm.

Our intention is to develop it, take it to the capital markets, and seek new investors as well, but we manage the company first.

Interviewer: To stay there for how many years?

Interviewee: Look, that’s difficult to specify right now, we don’t know, but we believe there is a large agenda ahead. Logically, besides re-establishing production—or at least bringing sustainability and securing more reserves, etc.—we will seek growth. We always do that. So, I think we have several good years of work ahead of us.

AI mainly lead me there so I won't post names, I'm sure a human researcher will get that.

A nautical theme!

I'm torn between you guessing @Bannor and AI suggesting 4 - 6 weeks:

Asked explicitly 'when is the operational licence is likely to be awarded'

Gemini said

Based on the chat history and the official government document you provided (Portaria No. 0040/2026), there is no fixed date for the final award, but we can pinpoint where the process stands in the timeline.

The Current Status

The process is in the Active Technical Review stage.

Immediate Milestone: The technical inspection is set for March 6, 2026.

The Next Phase: After the inspection on Friday, the officials (Armando and Nielson) must write a technical report based on their findings. This usually takes 2 to 4 weeks in standard administrative processes, though it can be faster if the project is being expedited.

The Approval Loop: Once the report is filed, it must be reviewed by the Assistant Secretary of the Technical Area (SEMA/AP) before a final decision is made.

Likely Award Window

While "jimb2" notes that this is "momentum but not clearance," professional analysis of similar mining permits suggests:

#### So take your pick ####

Optimistic Case (Ahead of Schedule): Late March to mid-April 2026. This assumes the site visit is the final "box to tick" and no further studies are requested.

#### Or ####

Standard Case (On Schedule): May to June 2026. This allows for the internal processing of the water-use permit (outorga) and the final operational signatures.

"Outorga" is a Portuguese term that translates to "Grant" or "Concession."

Odd few days of rise and fall, was someone testing the resilience of lth's?

AI, so use your own discretion

🔹 02 March 2026 – DOE/AP (Official State Gazette)

Issuing body: Secretaria de Estado do Meio Ambiente do Amapá

Document: Portaria nº 0040/2026-SEMA/AP

Publication date: 02/03/2026

Content:

Authorises technical inspection (vistoria técnica) in Pedra Branca do Amapari.

Explicitly references DEV Mineração S.A.

Linked to:

Processo nº 0037.2706.2002.0016/2026

Processo nº 0037.0285.2002.0017/2026

Purpose: Support technical analysis of water-use permit (outorga) requests.

📌 Status impact:

This is an active regulatory step, indicating environmental/operational permitting movement this week.

What it does indicate

It indicates:

The process is active

Regulators are engaging at technical level

Documentation has advanced far enough to justify site inspection

It is not stalled

That’s positive procedural momentum — but not operational clearance.

Worth a reminder: Gemini said!

Articles and investor updates from Tucano Gold Inc. clarify that while the company is a primary driver of mining activity in Amapá, the railroad infrastructure is a collaborative effort involving neighbouring projects and state initiatives.

The following key points summarize the current status of the railroad (Estrada de Ferro do Amapá - EFA) and Tucano Gold's role:

1. Shared Infrastructure Strategy

Tucano Gold’s logistics strategy for its "Green Iron" project is split into two phases. The railway is the "linchpin" for long-term scalability.

Phase 1 (Trucking): For the initial production of 500,000 tonnes per year, Tucano Gold plans to truck the iron concentrate 214km to the port of Santana.

Phase 2 (Rail): To reach its target of 1 million tonnes per year, Tucano Gold expects to transition to rail transport. The company estimates that rail usage is critical to maintaining its ultra-low cash costs of less than US$5 per tonne.

2. Partnership with DEV Mineração (Cadence Minerals)

Tucano Gold does not own the EFA railway; it is under a renewable 23-year concession held by DEV Mineração (the Amapá Iron Ore Project).

Joint Use: Articles highlight that Tucano Gold and DEV are in discussions to integrate their infrastructure. Tucano’s "Green Iron" provides the high-volume "anchor load" that helps justify the multi-million dollar investment required to rehabilitate the line.

Capacity: The railway has a historical capacity of 7 million tonnes annually, which far exceeds the current requirements of both companies combined, leaving room for third-party logistics services.

3. Reconstruction Milestones (2025–2026)

Recent investor updates and local news from Amapá indicate that the railroad's reconstruction is a high priority for the state government to support the "Mining Boom" in Pedra Branca do Amapari.

Licensing: DEV Mineração recently moved toward securing the Installation Licences (LI) for the rehabilitation of the mine, plant, rail, and port.

Funding: The total capital requirement for the integrated project (mine + rail + port) is estimated at US$370 million, with management actively seeking joint venture partners to finalize the reconstruction.

4. Economic Impact on Amapá

Tucano Gold’s restart is projected to make it the largest employer in Amapá by mid-2024/2025, with over 1,000 staff. The railroad is viewed by the local government as a strategic asset that will lower the cost of living by facilitating the transport of other goods (fuel, food, and passengers) alongside mining products.

Infrastructure Item Current Status (2025/2026) Railroad (EFA) Undergoing rehabilitation planning / Reconstruction 2026 Port of Santana Wholly owned by DEV (Partner); fully functional for shipping Road Access Paved and dirt roads in "excellent condition" for trucking Power Supply Upgraded substation at Caoraci Nunes (10MW to 25MW)

Well the sell price is far more important in my view along with the spread, plus the volume of the acceptable trade, I did add 47,181 this week because of the drop to 3.7p.

Quoted 3.91p to sell 500,000k plus

nice tick up to close the week,

As you may have seen Canada is strengthening trade with China, and with the USMCA due for review soon Canada and Mexico are having some serious trade talks:

https://www.canada.ca/en/global-affairs/news/2026/02/minister-leblanc-to-lead-team-canada-trade-mission-to-mexico-to-deepen-north-american-trade-ties.html

the Honourable Dominic LeBlanc, President of the King’s Privy Council for Canada and Minister responsible for Canada-U.S. Trade, Intergovernmental Affairs, Internal Trade and One Canadian Economy, will lead a Team Canada Trade Mission to Mexico from February 15 to 20, 2026. With over 240 organizations and more than 370 delegates, this Team Canada Trade Mission reflects strong interest from Canadian companies to expand in Mexico’s market and underscores the depth of Canada’s longstanding economic relationship and friendship with Mexico.

Interesting article, along with that!

https://www.cfr.org/articles/what-canadian-and-mexican-ev-imports-from-china-mean-for-the-united-states?utm_source=chatgpt.com

Piggy in the middle - fhook the US?

Gemini said:

The VMAS SUZHOU is currently experiencing a lengthy stay in Santana due to a "perfect storm" of seasonal weather, limited port infrastructure, and a specific type of cargo.

While it has been in the region for over two weeks, here are the real reasons for the delay as of February 14, 2026:

1. The "Wet Iron" Rule (Primary Cause)

You are currently in the peak of the Amapá rainy season. Today alone, Santana is seeing "passing showers and thunderstorms" with a 50-60% chance of rain.

The Problem: Iron ore sinter fines (what DEV Mineração is loading) cannot be loaded in the rain. If the moisture content exceeds a certain limit (TML), the cargo can turn into a liquid "sludge" during the voyage, which is the #1 cause of bulk carriers sinking.

The Delay: Every time it rains, the ship’s hatches must be closed and the conveyor belts stopped. In February, these "stop-start" cycles can easily turn a 4-day job into a 10-day job:

Another view for Qwen AI:

Yes, the weather in Santana, Amapá, Brazil during February 2026—including the period around mid-February when the VMAS SUZHOU is alleged to have been loading—has indeed featured frequent rain and high chances of precipitation, consistent with the region’s rainy season.

For example:

On February 4, 2026, the probability of precipitation in Santana was 80%

.

Forecasts for February 22, 2026 also show an 80% chance of rain

wisemeteo.com

.

AccuWeather data for mid-February shows repeated afternoon rain probabilities between 44% and 52% during key daytime hours

www.accuweather.com

.

General February weather statistics for Santana reflect a consistently wet pattern typical of the Amapá rainy season

meteobox.ca

.

These conditions align with the claim that rainfall could disrupt the loading of moisture-sensitive iron ore fines, as even intermittent showers would require halting operations to avoid exceeding the Transportable Moisture Limit (TML). So while the specific delay of the VMAS SUZHOU remains unverified, the weather context supporting such a delay is accurate.

Https://www.bnamericas.com/en/news/sheinbaum-denies-extractivist-shift-in-plan-with-the-us-on-critical-minerals

Interesting but not unexpected, AI:

In late January and early February 2026, Ebrard met with U.S. Trade Representative (USTR) Jamieson Greer in Washington D.C. to finalize the "United States-Mexico Critical Minerals Action Plan."

Ebrard's Role and Key Discussion Points

The Action Plan: On February 4, 2026, Ebrard and Greer formally signed an agreement to identify specific critical minerals—including lithium—to be prioritized for North American supply chain security.

USMCA 2026 Review: These lithium discussions are a strategic "pre-negotiation" for the mandatory 2026 Joint Review of the USMCA. Ebrard is using Mexico's mineral wealth as a bargaining chip to ensure favorable terms for Mexican industry and to defend against U.S. tariffs.

Price Floors: One of the most unique parts of Ebrard's discussion involves "border-adjusted price floors." The goal is to set a minimum price for lithium and other minerals within North America to prevent China from undercutting the market with cheaper, subsidized minerals.

@Witty,

if it helps yes you are wrong - the proof is there for you to find -

I dare say, Mexico might not have an EV industry that's doesn't include Europe and China:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_WDTQPlQtmE&t=20s

Tesla tanking in Europe!

Quoted over 800,000 to sell, with BARC's

added 100,257 @ 3.88p

Bid: 3.30 Ask: 3.90

Spread: 0.60 (18.182%)

What no more posts until the next RNS?

Https://youtu.be/kq8HcdlXS6E?si=Q7FGhjs3rJQ4om7x

YT video on Sodium ion

Well, I’ll make a bold statement that lithium projects without a DFS and secured finance will not survive, there’s so much happening with grid storage alternatives that beat lithium on many fronts. Storage was always something I saw leading the demand for lithium as we headed towards 2030 – the UK for one has a target of 95% low carbon energy – 80% wind and solar.

And Europe are doing similar!

Lithium hasn't reached its peak yet but if the ICSID isn't resolved this year, I don't see Sonora being of interest to anyone having to pick it up as a new project - Ganfeng were ready to go with production in 2023 and with a battery plant.

Sheinbaum's term ends September 2030 - she is in a lose lose situation - IMHO

January 24

January 24, 2026 - The Respondent files a memorial on consolidation.

ChatGPT:

What This Means in Practical Terms

Consolidation — If the tribunal and parties agree (or tribunal orders it), both cases could be merged into a single arbitration. That means one set of proceedings rather than two separate ones.

Suspension — Mexico is asking the tribunal to pause ARB/24/21 until the consolidation request is resolved, so the tribunal isn’t running two parallel processes at the same time.

Tribunal Decision Pending — As of now, the tribunal has received the consolidation request but hasn’t publicly issued a final decision yet (that’s the subject of the memorial filings).

📌 Memorial on Consolidation

The “memorial on consolidation” the Respondent filed is its formal written argument explaining why consolidation should happen — the legal basis, how the two cases relate (e.g., similar legal/factual issues, same respondent), and what the Respondent wants the tribunal to decide. This is part of the procedural phase where parties lay out their positions in detail before tribunal rulings on such requests

interesting shipment 200,000t of iron ore shipped from guinea to china

https://youtu.be/puijreyewvq?si=p9ztssqczyry***b

brazil looks pretty safe,

I can't see the full Amapa project being recognised in the SP for at least 18 months and likely longer, 15p - 20p yes with Azteca getting started, and that would be very welcome. Realistically the appetite to invest just hasn't been there with no mention of the Chinese interest and Azteca really doesn't show willingness from the off-taker to commit with investment for the main project.

I don't recall any potential buyer being mentioned for a while but I haven't watched recent interviews. Maybe other projects and agriculture in the region will take an interest in the railroad funding so that cold reduce the time for Amapa to commence with reduced financing.

And with lithium, I'm seeing a great deal of interest in Sodium ion batteries from the big battery producers for low to mid-range EV's and battery storage, its cheaper than LFP, is now on par with energy density, performs better at lower temperatures and last three times longer. Plus other battery chemistries rea on the horizon - So let's take anything we can from the ICSID because I don't see Sonora producing lithium - ever!