Member Info for jimb2

Also a bottle of gin as backup, drink responsibly - of course

Yes me @Bannor, had £620 on top 12,249 just after, didn't get the calculation right!

Bed and Isa, sell from an investment account and buy back into an Isa in one transaction, in my case to use up the Isa allowance for 2026-2027, the transaction worked out sell 412,371 and the Barcs algorithm bought back 411,431 both showing as sells. Reason I added before the current tax year outside my Isa as it was maxed for 2025-2026..

412,371 B&I ;-)

Nothing to suggest news AM Tuesday, fingers crossed for a late one PM or maybe an early @Mullins news alert Wednesday/Thursday - just hope it's this week, but keep in mind Amapa is four hours behind.

GL

Yes, @JonnyCache,

KM would have had a good indication after the minor amendment that was reported in the March 13th update, so the delay can be easily accounted for, so yes the investors call next Friday 'should' be post the news we are all waiting for!

March 13th:

With respect to the SEMA/AP workstreams, a technical inspection was conducted recently, following which SEMA/AP requested a minor amendment to the relevant application. That amendment has now been incorporated, submitted, and is being reviewed by SEMA/AP.

So a month to sign off with the review being submitted.....has to be close allowing some slippage for the Easter break...now how will the mood be on a week from now!

GL

Https://youtu.be/ALlvlrAv1h4?si=JvtAnxdLsUn1ml-n&t=137

slipping into next week, perhaps......

Good news @Bannor,

that's expected, this sequence is completely normal under ICSID procedure, and actually follows the rules quite closely.

I would hope the resignation is due to the upcoming procedural events and workload is perhaps too much for Donald Francis Donovan..Still see what our ICSID claim outlines, could well be a connection to the resignation.

B&I -- why do people rush first days of a tax year...doesn't make sense unless they believe movement in SP is imminent - lucky I have the option and left my £20k available, cost me £20k for the wife to open a shares ISA..60/40 KDNC and EMH.

. Resignations Are Usually Procedural, Not Predictive

Most resignations occur for neutral reasons: health issues, scheduling conflicts, new jobs, or ethical walls due to firm conflicts—not because an arbitrator has formed a view on the merits.

Cambridge University Press & Assessment

The consent process under Rule 25(2) is designed to prevent tactical resignations; the other two arbitrators must agree the resignation is justified.

@Bannor, and the reason for his resignation is?

Any reason why Cadence are perusing ICSID now when they could have just sat back to see the outcome of Ganfeng and Bacanora v the Mexican gov?

I agree it may seem negative but without knowing why I see it as just as likely positive...see if we get any news on our own ICSID that might give clues!

“The Tribunal consents to the resignation… pursuant to Rule 25(2)”

👉 This tells you several important things:

🔎 1. It was a voluntary resignation

Not a successful challenge

Not a forced removal

🔎 2. The tribunal agreed it was legitimate

Suggests:

Health / workload / conflict

Not misconduct

🔎 3. The process followed standard ICSID procedure

No sign (from that wording alone) of:

Dispute over the resignation

Procedural irregularity

Bottom line

Rule 25(2) = the formal mechanism for an arbitrator to resign in ICSID

It confirms:

✔ The resignation was accepted and valid

✔ The case will now move to appoint a replacement arbitrator

It does not indicate anything negative or strategic by itself

@Scaffman, some AI views!

Its slightly closer to the port:

Closer to Guaymas port → cheaper, faster imports/exports

Better access to Asia supply chains (key for Foxconn)

More available, low-cost land for a large battery plant

Easier to scale and expand (greenfield site)

Less competition for labour → lower wages, easier hiring

Better water availability (important for battery production)

Fits government Guaymas–Obregón industrial corridor strategy

Allows building a new EV ecosystem (not tied to legacy auto)

Maybe a little sensitive also being near Ford if in Hermosillo?

The Foxconn news is just over a year old, there's doesn't appear to be much progress since, I'm sure the actions of their neighbour is the deciding factor as was with BYD...Mexico has no lithium production on the horizon and Shienbaum will fail miserably without Sonora going into production, perhaps Foxconn will make a decision after the USMCA outcome in July.

I'm not sure Sheinbaum will be in full glory showing off her dream EV's in a country with no lithium production, there's no way investment in Sonora lithium will happen while the ICSID case is ongoing, can she afford to wait when her term ends September 2030? Durazo, what a snake touring the Bacanora pilot plant with Taddei (Litiomx) and what have they achieved? That hike in lithium prices to $80,000/t did look appealing to them.

AI:

There’s a contradiction Foxconn has had to navigate:

Tariffs push companies to move production OUT of China But moving INTO the U.S. is still expensive, so Foxconn’s optimal strategy has been:

Avoid tariffs → move to Mexico / Asia

Avoid high costs → limit U.S. manufacturing exposure

That’s why Mexico (Sonora, near U.S. market) is strategically ideal

My view: I don’t think stalling the case serves Mexico’s interests and quite the opposite as delays won’t alter the eventual outcome. At today’s share price, this looks like a de-risked investment opportunity for anyone taking an interest now,

President Claudia Sheinbaum has made the Olinia (meaning "movement" in Náhuatl) a centerpiece of her administration’s "Plan Sonora" and technological independence strategy.

The Unveiling Details

Date: June 11, 2026.

Event: The opening match of the FIFA World Cup 2026 at the Estadio Azteca in Mexico City.

The Vision: President Sheinbaum has publicly stated her desire to arrive at the stadium in an Olinia vehicle to showcase Mexican engineering to a global audience of billions.

Prototypes: Two distinct prototypes—a passenger "mini-EV" and a last-mile delivery van—are expected to be revealed at the event.

Key Project Milestones (as of April 2026)

Investment: As of mid-March 2026, the project is seeking an additional $200 million in private investment to move from the prototype phase to full-scale production.

Manufacturing: While the design is being finalized in tech centers in Puebla, the primary battery and electronics assembly is slated for Sonora (specifically Ciudad Obregón) to leverage the state's lithium and solar energy infrastructure.

Price Point: The government is still targeting a disruptive price range of 90,000 to 150,000 pesos (roughly $4,500 to $7,500 USD), intended as a safer, electric alternative to motorcycles.

Market Launch: While the prototypes debut this June, the vehicles are currently scheduled to hit showrooms and be available for public purchase in the first quarter of 2027.

Strategic Context

The June 11 debut is more than just a car launch; it is a geopolitical statement. By showcasing a "Made in Mexico" EV that avoids Chinese-branded IP during the USMCA review period, Mexico is attempting to prove it can be a high-tech manufacturing hub that complies with North American trade rules while remaining independent of major global auto giants.

I'm not so sure Mexico will want to stall the ICSID, Sonora plan for one and Sheinbaum's baby 'Olinia'

https://codeso.mx/en/governor-durazo-seeks-to-establish-an-electric-battery-factory-for-the-olinia-car/

Memorandum of Understanding with the CEO of Foxconn, one of the world’s largest manufacturers of electronic and technology components. This agreement aims to establish an electric battery factory in Ciudad Obregón, a key step toward bringing Olinia’s electric vehicle production to Sonora.

Foxconn, also known as Hon Hai Precision Industry Co., is a leading technology manufacturer and a key supplier for global giants such as Apple, Tesla, and Sony. Its expertise in battery development and electrical components makes the company a strategic partner in advancing electric mobility.

Governor Durazo, who will be joined in Taiwan by Francisco Acuña Méndez, President of the Sonora Council for Sustainable Development (CODESO) and a key advocate of the Sonora Sustainable Energy Plan, stated that the establishment of an electric battery factory in Ciudad Obregón would place Sonora in an unparalleled position for electric vehicle manufacturing in Mexico.

With 75% of the automotive supply chain already established in the state, Sonora is the leading candidate to host the Olinia project, which was officially presented at the national level on January 6 by President Claudia Sheinbaum.

AND!!

The "Liberation Day" Tariffs (2025–2026)

Since January 20, 2025, the Trump administration’s aggressive tariff policies (including the April 2, 2025 "Liberation Day" tariffs) have fundamentally changed Foxconn's business model.

Tariff Impact: Average tariffs on Chinese imports rose to nearly 50% in 2025. This made Foxconn’s traditional "Assemble in China" model for companies like Apple and Dell extremely expensive.

The "Re-Route": Rather than losing US consumer deals, Foxconn has aggressively moved production to Vietnam, India, and Mexico. In fact, Bloomberg reported in early 2026 that Foxconn’s Vietnamese subsidiary exported $8.6 billion in MacBooks and iPads to the US—though $7.9 billion of the components still originated in China/Taiwan.

Not forgetting: July 1, 2026, is the sixth anniversary of the agreement. By this date, the "Free Trade Commission" (the trade ministers of the US, Mexico, and Canada) must meet to decide one of two things:

Option A (Renewal): All three countries confirm in writing they want to extend the deal. This would "lock in" the USMCA for another 16 years (until 2042).

Option B (The "Sunset" Path): If even one country (likely the US) refuses to sign a clean renewal, the agreement does not die immediately. Instead, it enters a 10-year countdown to expiration (2036), during which mandatory annual reviews must take place to try and fix the disagreements.

Yes, @tomcat-14, plus another consideration:

In Brazil, granting mining licenses or work authorizations immediately before a holiday—especially Carnival or Christmas—is frequently perceived as a tactic to evade public scrutiny.

​Critics, environmental NGOs, and local communities often view this timing as a way for the National Mining Agency (ANM) or state bodies to bypass opposition, as the 45-day public comment periods or judicial appeals may overlap with dates when the media and legal offices are less active.

No surprise this will be a little delayed, from March 13th RNS:

With respect to the SEMA/AP workstreams, a technical inspection was conducted recently, following which SEMA/AP requested a minor amendment to the relevant application. That amendment has now been incorporated, submitted, and is being reviewed by SEMA/AP.

From the Zeus report they mention Cadence assumes June commissioning for Azteca, given the date of the presentation 17th April - I will assume the necessary sign off is expected to be completed by then.

Good luck all, big demand for DRI - I am also expecting we get news on developing the railroad sooner rather than later $20/t savings for Azteca and Tucano DRI is a real incentive to fund that!

Https://youtu.be/tcd9N62nOLg?si=EkVhB5TpYyqC8oKd&t=53

@Tokra

I'm not at the moment, if the SP climbs quickly I might take a few EMH, I have held in the past , I consider the prospects here are more likely to give returns here over EMH.

That's my position at the moment, there's also a possibility that a smaller investment in the railroad will be on the table once Tucano and Azteca start production. last video link I posted with KM - he suggests $30m will allow for 3 million t's/year to be shipped - I think that will be a mix of rail then road into the port. Tucano as I recall are planning 500,000t - 1,000,000t of high grade green ore over the first 1 - 2yrs (as I recall - so worth checking to see if correct)

GL

Yes, @cheshiredentist ,

I would like to see the full project developed along with the railroad and port, and dare I say dividends - I'm not sure the funding from Azteca and a long drawn out DFS will be the way forward. The state are clear they want to develop the 'corridor' and I believe it will be *Brazilian finance* with the people associated with Tucano Gold.

Something I posted last week plus some additions: Interview September 2025

The people behind Tucano Gold could easily take on our project rail and port, read the transcript and look at their history!

https://selesnafes.com/2025/09/novo-acionista-de-mina-de-ouro-da-detalhes-do-plano-para-retomar-atividades-no-ap/

Respondent: Translated

Respondent:

Well, the transaction was finalized quite recently—just last Friday—but logically, we’ve been studying and preparing even before formally entering the company. Our intention now is to concentrate substantial resources over the coming months—including labor, external services, and new equipment. As you know, the plant has been idle for about three years, especially the processing plant, which is severely worn out and requires roughly six months of rehabilitation and revitalization work.

Starboard. It’s 100% Brazilian—a Brazilian asset management firm headquartered in São Paulo and Rio de Janeiro. We specialize in what the market calls “special situations”—that is, complex investment opportunities. We identify such opportunities, invest capital entrusted to us by our investors (our unitholders), and actively manage the companies we acquire.

Our goal here isn’t just to restore production and ensure long-term sustainability—e.g., securing additional reserves—but also to pursue growth. That’s always our approach. So, we foresee several years of dedicated work ahead.

We often measure only the direct impacts—royalties and taxes—but the indirect, sometimes intangible, effects are highly relevant: revitalizing the local economy, generating formal employment, and restoring broader economic momentum.

Add to that:

If you look at the latest presentation slide 13 and 22, the corridor has further expansion potential all dependant on the railroad.

https://www.cadenceminerals.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/Cadence-Jan-2026-updated.pdf

KM Interview September 2025:

https://youtu.be/MbetSV2OBxI?si=oqfZm6nA2I_Ea0vu&t=1962

*Brazilian Finance*

Of course a JV is possible and that would suit me, whether for the full Amapa iron ore project or the port and railroad!

Thanks for sharing @Tokra,

you're holding little more than me but as mentioned I 'might' take another chunk next week, price dependent and see how I feel. Yes I did look back at your history before responding and did see you are a lth.

Far too many years have passed by and disappointments, Sonora was a bitter blow and something I would really like to see return some money hence my interest in keeping a close eye on progress. Of course we were so close with Amapa in November 2024 before the big blow when SEMA change the goalpost.

So now we have a short few weeks to see if we get some production and cashflow but not forgetting we have been cash backed for Azteca and again this week by LCM for the arbitration - so no cash raises on the horizon and two external parties endorsement. I suspect if we head above 12p in a short period of a few days or a week or two on good news that any LTH will exit in full, some may likely take a clawback, plus we will hopefully see a great deal of interest with new investors. Maybe Tucano/Amapa Minerals commencing gold production will be a catalyst for the Brazilian investor to make their move,

fingers crossed,

@Tokra,

I've made no secret of it, yes above 1 million - under 2 million and might hit that if the sp holds below 5p through next week. I'm fully aware its a mining investment that can still with Azteca throw up further obstacles. Still if we get to the start-up of production at Azteca I do think there's a high probability the Brazilian investment will follow, should things go pear-shaped I'm giving Sonora ICDID a 90% chance of being awarded in our favour.

My views of course and sincerely hope the LTH's get their day.