Member Info for jimb2

@roger65,

it's not that important the SP is below the realistic value of our other assets excluding Sonora, but it would be a nice lift to take a little of that $600bn.

You read it your way but I doubt Ganfeng will be squeezed out without compensation in the $bn's, maybe you should look back over the posts people have furnished you with if you are in doubt.

Thanks @Dallasdaz,

López Obrador said that “one or two” companies had started projects, though they had not obtained all necessary permits, such as for water use of environmental impact statements.

And there are one or two Canadian companies he mentions in another article, he does seem to have to back out of corners.

https://financialpost.com/pmn/business-pmn/mexico-says-energy-dispute-not-discussed-at-north-american-leaders-summit/wcm/cf78e80d-1c8f-4a3b-9182-bca976fa6865/amp/

Trudeau did raise Canada’s concerns over Mexico’s energy policies, prompting Lopez Obrador to announce he would
receive Canadian companies that had problems they wanted resolving.

The Mexican president said he would meet with one Canadian company that had an issue on electricity relating to so-called self-supply permits, which his government has sought to end.

He did not name the company, and said there were also “one or two” companies to do with mining, without identifying them. He could meet the company with the electricity complaint as soon as next week, he said.

Lopez Obrador last year sat down with U.S. companies to address their problems in the energy sector.

But it did not prevent the U.S. Trade Representative filing its request for dispute settlement talks, which Canada immediately joined. Officials and industry sources said the United States took the step because it was not satisfied with purely ad hoc settlements for their energy concerns.

2 - 2 for a change (LOL)

Seems the system works:

USMCA panel rules in favour of Mexico and Canada on automotive rules of origin

https://www.elsoldetijuana.com.mx/finanzas/canada-y-mexico-ganan-a-eu-en-disputa-comercial-sobre-reglas-de-origen-en-sector-automotriz-9452791.html

@EV_Bull,

I would imagine this will apply to all those buses, trucks, etc supplied by BYD to NA/SA.

Critical minerals can also be manufactured from recycled materials in North America, but in no way can those that were "extracted, processed or recycled by a foreign entity of interest" be used, which leaves China out as a supplier.

BYD has deployed more than 60,000 electric buses that are currently operating around the world. Our electric buses have a proven track record with some of the biggest companies, universities and transit agencies across the country. With more than 18 million zero-emission electric miles driven across America, BYD is the trusted authority for electric buses across North America.

I wonder if BYD are up for NA production or will that meet no end of resistance?

@roger65,

is anticipation insider knowledge, if of course that's a reason for KM to invest?

That $1bn on the table could grow to $3bn and considering the below was ten months back when LCE was about $49k/t Ganfeng's pockets must be bulging at todays prices and demand may well have changed.

https://newsrnd.com/news/2022-03-15-ganfeng--%22we-are-going-to-continue-in-sonora-because-the-laws-of-mexico-allow-lithium-to-be-exploited%22.rJfzAYYpZq.html

The Chinese giant considers that given the absence of a lithium industry in the country and the technical and metallurgical processing complexity of the deposit, they are the only ones that can provide the knowledge and technology necessary for the operation.

The Sonora project has so far cost 50 million dollars and the mining company plans to spend another 3,000 in the extraction and manufacture of batteries in the future. Of that amount, around 1,000 million will arrive "in the next five years," they say.

“Our plan is to have a company that dominates the entire lithium value chain in Mexico: that not only includes the mine, but also the production of batteries and their recycling. We are the only company in the world that combines lithium mining, mineral processing, battery manufacturing, cells and battery recycling”,

Still nothing is certain so let's see how this unfolds with the comforting fact that the SP is justified even without Sonora landing soon.

@roger65,

it's on the table, fromSeptember:

https://www.expreso.com.mx/noticias/sonora/ganfeng-la-empresa-china-que-busca-invertir-en-litiomx/160193

With the creation of LitioMx, there are companies ready to invest in the exploration and exploitation of this mineral in Sonora, the first of which is Ganfeng, which has put a billion dollars on the table to invest immediately, according to Governor Alfonso Durazo

~~~~~~~~

Well, Litio Mx is that parastatal company open to private participation and that could receive up to a billion dollars of investment, if the partnership with Gangfeng, owner of Bacanora Lithium, which has an exploration concession in Bacadehuachi, is approved.

Justin Trudeau was reported as having the trade disputes on his agenda, there's a few Canadian companies in a similar position:

http://advancelithiumcorp.com/news/advance-lithium-ceo-letter-to-shareholders/

https://www.rocklandresources.com/archive-2022

Silver Valley are challenging the mining law reforms in the Supreme court:

https://silvervalleymetals.com/2022/11/15/silver-valley-metals-files-for-approval-of-oversubscribed-non-brokered-private-placement-financing/

The expectation has been given from the Supreme Court of Mexico that they will provide an answer to the validity of the Company’s deposit(s) considering the amendment to the mining law that was undertaken by the Government this past April in a timely manner. All arguments in the Supreme Court have been heard. The Company’s challenge is that the amendment to the mining law is not supported by the Mexican Constitution nor the international trade agreements between Canada and Mexico.

becoming more consistent with Arizona:

https://english.elpais.com/usa/2023-01-10/mexicos-lopez-obrador-accuses-biden-of-disdain-in-talks-on-immigration-fentanyl-trafficking-and-security.html

The first issue discussed at the bilateral summit was climate change, specifically Mexico’s Sonora Plan, which is aimed at boosting renewable energy in the country and creating more economic opportunities. Under discussion was a proposed expansion of the semiconductor supply chain and further mineral exploitation in the Mexican states of Sonora, with a hub in Arizona, to increase North America’s competitiveness

LGES possibly?
https://roselawgroupreporter.com/2023/01/proposed-lithium-battery-plant-in-queen-creek-still-on-hold/

2,800 US jobs

good article in the WP, I wasn't aware of this A_L.O's choice of candidate to lead the supreme court has not been successful and is now someone who is eager to pursue his energy policies violate the Mexican constitution, plus he had some bid to amend the constitution fail - all could be significant if an agreement with Ganfeng doesn't materialise.

from paragraph beginning - What’s more .........

https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/energy/north-americasthree-amigos-are-out-of-tune/2023/01/09/5a1bfa06-901e-11ed-90f8-53661ac5d9b9_story.html

no denying just how important that Sonora lithium is!

Is it reasonable to expect news on Ganfeng's involvement with LitioMX this week?

From September

https://www.expreso.com.mx/noticias/sonora/ganfeng-la-empresa-china-que-busca-invertir-en-litiomx/160193

With the creation of LitioMx, there are companies ready to invest in the exploration and exploitation of this mineral in Sonora, the first of which is Ganfeng, which has put a billion dollars on the table to invest immediately, according to Governor Alfonso Durazo

~~~~~~~~

Well, Litio Mx is that parastatal company open to private participation and that could receive up to a billion dollars of investment, if the partnership with Gangfeng, owner of Bacanora Lithium, which has an exploration concession in Bacadehuachi, is approved.

I would say totally reasonable and if the conditions suit Ganfeng then maybe additional news on who they will supply!

The 12th has been mentioned a couple of times as the day they will announce LitioMX plans.

https://mexicobusiness.news/mining/news/litiomx-be-consolidated-2023?tag=sonora-plan

The Governor of Sonora, Alfonso Durazo Montaño, announced that the Litio para México (LitioMx) project will be consolidated and fully operational in 2023.

“2023 will start with a meeting to establish the operation plan for Litiomx in Sonora, including its vision and objectives,” said Durazo about the gathering will be on Jan. 12 , 2023

After a meeting with President López Obrador, Durazo reported that the first actions for the Sustainable Energy Plan in Sonora have been defined, which involve a solar power plant and a lithium battery manufacturing plant. Further steps include the construction of solar plants in other states of the country.

“The personal coordination of President López Obrador speaks volumes about how important the Sustainable Energy Plan in Sonora is for his government. Also, his management guarantees that all government bodies will start working optimally and advance every month,” he added.

The article below seems a little more positive from late November:

https://insights-tetakawi-com.translate.goog/zh-hans/mexico-aims-to-grow-ev-production-with-national-lithium-company?_x_tr_sl=zh-CN&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en&_x_tr_pto=sc

Not much mention on lithium demand forecasts these days on here:

https://www.kitco.com/news/2022-12-30/Global-lithium-production-expected-to-nearly-double-by-2025-but-risks-of-persistent-supply-shortages-remain.html#:~:text=%E2%80%9CWorld%20demand%20for%20lithium%20is,authors%20of%20the%20report%20said.

Not bad considering Morgan Stanley caused a lithium price crash with their forecasts in 2018

Here's one of my ramping posts on BCN from 2019:

Top analyst v Morgan Stanley

jimb2
Posted in: BCN
Posts: 4,768
Price: 21.00
Strong Buy
RE: BCN- "Bull Case for Energy Metals 19 Mar 2019 10:54
Raised 2025 demand forecast for lithium by 88%, and I have seen a few analysts question Morgan Stanley's 2025 forecast for 650kt suggesting in the order of 1mt - 1.3 mt along with the global producers and now HSBC! Come on Morgan Stanley issue a correction!

And of course their LCE price of $7,030 today:

Morgan Stanley forecasts the price of lithium carbonate will fall from US$13,375 per tonne to $7,332 per tonne by 2021, and then towards its marginal cost of production at $7,030 per tonne thereafter.

And their latest:

November 30, 2022 9:35 GMT+8
Morgan Stanley sees the price of lithium carbonate in China falling to $47,500 per ton in the second half of 2023, implying a 35 percent drop from the current spot.

even that's almost 7X 2018 forecast and why many juniors failed to get financing in place.

Morgan Stanley didn't understand disruption and the same for many of the major car manufacturer's.

@tomcat-14,

Perhaps Hanwa would be interested in further expansion or having the existing off-take for NA.

https://www.hanwa.co.jp/ms/data/pdf/news/20220906-en_4152.pdf

Hanwa Co., Ltd. (“Hanwa”) is hereby delighted to announce a strategic partnership agreement with Honda Motor Co., Ltd. (“Honda”). This partnership aims to build a solid and sustainable supply chain for procurement of essential EV battery metals such as nickel, cobalt and lithium.
With an eye toward the rapidly accelerated demand growth in lithium-ion battery market and becoming more difficult to secure sufficient volume of the essential metals for EV battery, Hanwa is willing to utilize its existing global network and consolidate long-term procurement of the essential materials from our projects, partners, existing and future prospective
suppliers through this partnership with Honda.

https://www.motor1.com/news/578009/honda-gm-announced-shared-ev-platform-coming-2027/

No end of possibilities!

looking back to the response from Ganfeng published in March 2022 with their standpoint

https://newsrnd.com/news/2022-03-15-ganfeng--%22we-are-going-to-continue-in-sonora-because-the-laws-of-mexico-allow-lithium-to-be-exploited%22.rJfzAYYpZq.html

Regarding the Electrical Reform, still not approved, the company assures that the document allows operating concessions like its own and that in 24 months the mine will be fully operational.

“We do not think about leaving Mexico.

We are very confident that the Sonora project complies with all laws and is going to be very positive for both Mexico and the region,” they point out.

worth reading over!

@Observer842

I am intrigued!

No mention of Lithium?

https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/amlo-ask-biden-energy-semiconductor-191456623.html

https://miningmexico.com/amlo-visitara-sonora-para-revisar-plan-de-litio/

President Andrés Manuel López Obrador reported that he will review the progress of the Sonora Plan, which contemplates the issue of lithium.
In a morning conference , López Obrador indicated that he will also supervise the progress of the construction of the solar plant in Puerto Peñasco, Sonora.
López Obrador commented that he hopes to address these issues over the weekend, during a visit to the state of Sonora.

Could it be that Ganfeng have shown their cards at last?

@Zoom56,

VP Harris,

Very underestimated - IMHO

GL

@Zoom56,

I'm watching that closely with intrigue, the rhetoric from A_L.O towards Joe Biden over the last 18 months has been interesting, I think he now realises the tangerine grifter's day's are over.

We already have a potUS interested in Mexico and lithium, he will be there next week - all part of the bigger plan, something building on from many years ago to address issues in central and southern America.

No medieval Wall - economies and jobs.

Not long to wait now @observer842, likewise I've been adding and have gone beyond my previous maximum holding.

I do feel confident that the years of research will be rewarded, just the geopolitics to conclude in our favour as it should.

So hopefully a little over a week maximum before we find out, well from Sonora at least!

Piedmont supplying from a Canadian miner as an off-take partner, considering in 2020 they signed to supply from North Carolina.

The agreement is conditional upon Tesla and Piedmont have agreed to a tentative start date for spodumene concentrate deliveries between July 2022 and July 2023 based on the development schedules of both parties.

Now they are looking towards 2026.

https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/1002337/piedmont-lithium-amends-tesla-offtake-agreement-will-supply-spodumene-concentrate-from-north-american-lithium-1002337.html

Piedmont plans to deliver SC6 to Tesla from NAL under Piedmont’s offtake agreement with Sayona Quebec, which entitles Piedmont to purchase the greater of 113,000 tonnes per year or 50% of SC6 production.

It does look like the supply chain in North America is nowhere near meeting demand considering this was published 22 October 2022 and IMHO shows that the money would be there for Mexico to finance a buyout:

https://fortune.com/2022/10/20/biden-hands-out-billion-grants-boost-the-us-ev-battery-industry-take-on-china/

The federal grants announced Wednesday are funded by last year’s $1 trillion infrastructure law and are separate from an executive order Biden issued last spring invoking the Defense Production Act to boost production of lithium and other critical minerals used to power electric vehicles.

Albemarle Corp., Piedmont Lithium Inc., Entek and Syrah Technologies are among 20 companies that won Energy Department grants to help fund projects in at least 12 states: Alabama, Georgia, Kentucky, Louisiana, Missouri, Nevada, New York, North Carolina, North Dakota, Ohio, Tennessee and Washington state.

And more recently, December 12th 2022:

https://www.axios.com/2022/12/12/biden-overseas-mining-funding

The Biden administration is looking at funding roughly a dozen mineral projects overseas in a bid for more resources used in lower-carbon technologies.

The partnership includes Australia, Canada, Finland, France, Germany, Japan, South Korea, the United Kingdom and the European Commission.

Mexico omitted from the list, is that possibly because the $48bn Sonora Plan finance is a done deal?

Incredible possibilities for a small AIM company if this goes the right way, you have to wonder how costly the year delay from Ganfeng (so far) beginning construction may have impacted any investment in EV and battery production with Mexico and any supply to the US.

Tesla to announce a new model early March $25,000, 200 mile range and half the production costs - they expect this to reach production volumes of all other models combined.