focusIR May 2024 Investor Webinar: Blue Whale, Kavango, Taseko Mines & CQS Natural Resources. Catch up with the webinar here.
Yes @Zoom56,
I agree settlement will likely be before international arbitration as Ganfeng ruling if it goes that far will probably be sufficient, there's still the courts in Mexico who might make a ruling on Ganfeng and that should land before end of January to keep within the four months.
Just like Ganfeng the process has now started and the RNS wording aligns with the terms of the agreement:
Cadence Minerals (AIM/Aquis: KDNC) advises that the Company and its subsidiary REM Mexico Limited ("REMML") have issued a Request for Consultations and Negotiations ("Request") to the Government of Mexico under the United Kingdom-Mexico Bilateral Investment Treaty ("BIT").
SECTION TWO: SETTLEMENT OF DISPUTES BETWEEN THE
CONTRACTING PARTIES
ARTICLE 21
Settlement of Disputes Between the Contracting Parties
1. The Contracting Parties shall endeavour to resolve any dispute between them concerning the interpretation or application of this Agreement, by means of prompt and friendly consultations and negotiations.
2. If a dispute is not resolved by such means within four months from the date on which a Contracting Party requested such negotiations or consultations, the dispute shall be submitted, at the request of either Contracting Party, to an arbitral tribunal established in accordance with the provisions of this Article or, by agreement of the Contracting Parties, to any other international tribunal.
Ganfeng are probably near two months ahead in their dispute before it goes to international arbitration -
Another fine mess for his legacy:
https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/after-85-billion-tab-amlo-requests-weekly-updates-from-pemex-1.1998570
That comes after some $77 billion in cash and tax breaks the company has received during Lopez Obrador’s administration, which have failed to reverse losses. Pemex’s debt reached $106 billion last month, according to Chief Executive Officer Octavio Romero, making the company the most indebted oil producer in the world. Since the reviews by tax officials began, the company has yet to show signs of improvement amid a pile of unpaid suppliers, said one of the people.
So many scenarios the could be applied and what intrigues me it appeared Cadence were happy as the junior to let Ganfeng take on the Mex gov - perhaps there's something going on behind the scenes:
“Soon the president is going to announce the issue , I would wait for the president himself to report it, but we are doing well. I cannot give that scoop,” said former secretary Rocío Nahle, in a recent interview with Expansión , leaving open the possibility that the production concession will be granted to the state-owned LitioMx.
And this was recently released by Peter Secker.
Https://mexicobusiness.news/mining/news/ganfeng-lithium-seeks-partnership-mexican-government?tag=mining
Ganfeng explained that, if an agreement is reached with the court, the project could be developed in 18 months. However, if done with the government, given its financial and technological constraints, it could take 20 years to reach production. Secker stressed that if the matter is not resolved through the courts or through the creation of a new partnership, the project could end up being sold. "No one is going to invest a billion dollars unless they have some kind of security. People will prefer, for these larger projects, to go to lower risk jurisdictions," Secker said.
Perhaps we just needed to secure our seat at the negotiating table.
And the narcissist must be spiting feathers with today's news if perhaps San Francisco was part of the 'scoop' another missed photo shoot?
For anyone legally competent:
Ganfeng's agreement:
https://investmentpolicy.unctad.org/international-investment-agreements/treaty-files/759/download
The agreement we are disputing
https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/5a74ba5ae5274a3cb2866b4c/6860.pdf
Very similar -
Article 10
https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/5a74ba5ae5274a3cb2866b4c/6860.pdf
ARTICLE 7
Expropriation
1. Investments of investors of either Contracting Party shall not be nationalised or expropriated, either directly or indirectly through measures having effect equivalent to nationalisation or expropriation (“expropriation”) in the territory of the other Contracting Party except for a public purpose, on a non-discriminatory basis, in accordance with due process of law and against compensation
Don't forget,
“Soon the president is going to announce the issue , I would wait for the president himself to report it, but we are doing well. I cannot give that scoop,” said former secretary Rocío Nahle, in a recent interview with Expansión , leaving open the possibility that the production concession will be granted to the state-owned LitioMx.
A spanner in the works so to speak!
A_L.O also has a meeting with Justin Trudeau, if I recall he offered Mexico mining expertise assistance during the three Amigos summit in January.
Timing,
And A_L.O meets with President XI today, it's his first meeting in San Francisco -
In addition:
https://www.reuters.com/world/uks-badenoch-attend-trans-pacific-cptpp-meeting-sidelines-apec-2023-11-14/
UK's Badenoch to attend trans-Pacific CPTPP meeting on sidelines of APEC
It's not oil but the price ticket is like oil mergers
https://www.reuters.com/markets/deals/allkem-livent-merger-gets-regulatory-approvals-before-shareholder-vote-2023-11-14/
Lithium miner Livent said on Tuesday its proposed $10.6 billion merger with Australia's Allkem....
Indeed @Barksy1
Great timing: Thursday San Francisco
https://www.marketscreener.com/news/latest/Mexican-president-to-meet-China-s-Xi-at-summit-in-San-Francisco-45351619/
Earlier Tuesday, Mexican Foreign Minister Alicia Barcena told a press conference that Lopez Obrador and Xi would discuss trade as well as how to improve bilateral supply chains for what she said would be their first meeting in person.
Now, is there a possibility the Ganfeng saga will be a point for discussion?
Good though that president XI is setting foot on US soil considering the recent friction!
Https://mexicobusiness.news/mining/news/ganfeng-lithium-seeks-partnership-mexican-government?tag=mining
Ganfeng explained that, if an agreement is reached with the court, the project could be developed in 18 months. However, if done with the government, given its financial and technological constraints, it could take 20 years to reach production. Secker stressed that if the matter is not resolved through the courts or through the creation of a new partnership, the project could end up being sold. "No one is going to invest a billion dollars unless they have some kind of security. People will prefer, for these larger projects, to go to lower risk jurisdictions," Secker said.
Getting very interesting,
Perhaps you were right @Bannor:
https://www.reuters.com/business/environment/grupo-mexico-proposes-work-group-address-sonora-river-contamination-lopez-2023-10-18/
Grupo Mexico proposes work group to address Sonora river contamination, Lopez Obrador says
Nice find @Dallasdaz,
agree @Barksy1 -
“Soon the president is going to announce the issue , I would wait for the president himself to report it, but we are doing well. I cannot give that scoop,” said former secretary Rocío Nahle, in a recent interview with Expansión , leaving open the possibility that the production concession will be granted to the state-owned LitioMx.
I do wonder how the Chinese gov might respond if they do get involved - ban all exports of anode and cathode battery materials to Mexico?
Interesting to see what transpires.
Https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/eu-set-okay-rules-secure-critical-raw-materials-eu-official-says-2023-11-13/
https://www.mining.com/web/eu-agrees-rules-to-secure-critical-raw-materials-amid-race-with-china-us/
The proposal said the European Union should extract 10%, recycle 15% and process 40% of its annual needs by 2030 for 16 “strategic raw materials”.
The European Parliament and the Council, the grouping of EU governments, needed to agree on a common text. They did this on Monday, parties from both sides said, paving the way for the law to enter force in early 2024
I'm not looking through the translated posts - so apologies if so!
Not new news:
https://www.mining.com/web/exxon-to-start-lithium-production-for-evs-in-the-us-by-2027/
The largest U.S. oil company said it would use conventional oil and gas drilling methods to access lithium-rich saltwater from reservoirs about 10,000 feet underground and then use direct lithium extraction (DLE) technology to separate lithium from the saltwater.
But I do wonder how much geophysical data the oil companies have at hand that could be lithium rich sources?
I don't see anything to suggest other involvement in Sonora:
https://www.tribuna.com.mx/sonora/2023/10/30/gobierno-de-amlo-sigue-sin-informar-municipios-de-sonora-sobre-nacionalizacion-del-litio-349589.html
We, in our municipality, have not received any documents regarding possible projects in the area, only what we found out from the news," said the municipality of Nácori Chico.
Even local news are questioning the lack of progress: subtitles - translation available - interview with Fernando Rodríguez from the Sonora Energy Cluster
https://www.youtube.com/live/dvx0DkTHP4Q?si=-CzymR3S9xm0MM9W&t=1787
It there was any development A_L.O could get political mileage from he would be very vocal about it - IMHO
Peter Secker is still suggesting Mining, battery plant and recycling with $1bn on the table - I'm not sure A_L.O will welcome the media associating his policy with the failed lithium industry when practically all NA and SA countries are seeing rapid developments.
and the odd little jibe doesn't hurt:
Even as the Sonora project has stagnated, Ganfeng has tripled its projects in Argentina, Secker noted.
ouch!
I do believe if it was a done deal with Canadian or US investment as my worst fears with the three amigos meeting it would be apparent by now. Two amigos have multiple mining operations, battery plants and processing capabilities. I also don't see Elon Musk screwing over Ganfeng, I'm my view he wants to keep the Chinese in favour.
I also believe Peter Secker understands how to put pressure on a narcissist, plenty of press putting total accountability on A_L. O.
Hermosillo on Monday he will have to Answer I would imagine.
I think someone has noticed the monumental F*U:
https://www.elsoldehermosillo.com.mx/local/amlo-debe-aclarar-situacion-de-ganfeng-lithium-ctm-sonora-10981211.html
AMLO must clarify the Ganfeng Lithium situation: CTM Sonora
The state leader of the Confederation of Mexican Workers (CTM), Javier Villarreal Gámez said that the situation of the Chinese company must be clarified.
Being an important issue that must be clarified immediately, before foreign investment in the country can be lost , representatives of organizations in Sonora ask President Andrés Manuel López Obrador to be more specific about what will happen with Ganfeng Lithium.
In an interview for El Sol de Hermosillo , the state leader of the Confederation of Mexican Workers (CTM) , Javier Villarreal Gámez expressed that next Monday, when the national leader is visiting the state, he should be questioned about how he will proceed in this issue.
And Gotion:
https://cleantechnica.com/2023/05/20/gotion-introduces-lmfp-battery-with-energy-density-of-240-wh-kg/
The pack energy density has reached 190 Wh/kg, which exceeds the energy density of many NCM battery packs currently on the market.
And aims to hit 20 GWh in Germany beginning with 5GWh mid 2024:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6caR4Z6eqtM
Also US:
https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/gotion-inobat-build-20-gwh-battery-plant-europe-by-2026-2023-09-18/
Gotion and Slovak battery start-up Inobat (Gotion have 25% stake in Inobat)
Construction on the plant will begin in 2024 and after launching full production in 2026, Inobat CEO Marian Bocek said in a statement that output can then be gradually increased.
So many possibilities for the CR to supply.