Member Info for JG68

They have enough liquidity to essentially be net debt free, they will prob pay off an 80 mill loan due next year.

Even as is, as soon as the savings feed through to FCF and profit, even without growing, this is multiples of today.

In a few years people will be lording JL for laying the foundation for this, but not yet!!

PJT

Yeah agree with you entirely, just trying to second guess and fully comprehend what this year is likely to be like, and try and second guess whether market reactions will be as brutal as the past.

But point taken and thanks for your input.

Guys I was wondering if anyone is a financial results expert and is able to work out briefly what the headline numbers would have been without all the exceptional items.

I have extracted the following but am finding it difficult to reconcile given adjusted/reported methods of reporting.

For example the overall loss before tax was 106.6

FCF including business exits was (154.9) and was (115.5) excluding business exits. What impact did exceptional have on FCF and operating profit, the same exceptional seem to be used when reporting both figures?

OP was 106.5 butut resulted in loss of 52 after the exceptional.

See below:

Loss before tax was 106.6

Op cashflow 81.2

Cash gen from ops 8.7

FCF (154.9) including business exits.

FCF excluding bus exits (115.5)

Overall op profit was 106.5

But because of :

Am and Imp 0.2

Goodwill imp 42.2

Bus exits 36.4

Cyber 25.3

Cost reduction 54.4

Resulted in:

Overall op profit was (52)

There was also 30 mill regular pension deficit payment and 16.3 pension deficit triggered by business disposals.

Plus lower gains on sale of businesses 2.4.

I know a lot of the above one offs are non recurring and there will be additional one offs this year, but are you able to just briefly work out what the overall headline reported figures would have been without the above?

Also the net debt figure was 182.1, does that include the 101.9m equivalent of US private placement loan notes across three tranches: £50m maturing 25 July 2026, USD45m maturing 25 July 2026 and USD23m maturing 25 July 2028?

Thanks, it may show us how well or not the company performed last year underneath everything

There were various outflows last year resulting in the increase in debt.

This year we know there are savings costs and the last 25 mill pension deficit contribution, there will no doubt be costs associated with the recent sale plus loss of earnings because of it.

There is 80 mill of debt maturing next year which will probably be repaid.

Personally I'm hoping they pay that debt, maybe contribute some to the costs this year resulting in a better FCF headline number at year end which is ahead of schedule, say 80 for the loan, 70 towards costs, 30 investment and maybe 25 share buyback.

Then they start the new year 25 with hopefully improved earnings guidance due to the cost savings, improved margins on contracts/renewals, and would speed up the turnaround.

Amostreet

Yeah a few weeks ago I was prepared to give this at least until Aug next year.

And nothing has happened to change that outlook except some positive news which should reinforce it.

Heavily invested and down in MCG too, same timescale outlook etc.

It's just I simply don't trust the people who operate the UK stock market or it in general.

How can you when the news this week just demonstrates how poorly UK stocks are valued.

Previous disposals aside, the liquidity that this 207 mill provides should be fully reflected in the mcap now, it essentially makes us debt free.

But it's not.

Anyway if I can make the next 15 without top slicing, it will be a result for my stock holding growth!!

Amostreet

Glad to have been of service!!!!

I just get stressed after being down for so long, finally to be BE, only to have use all my mental strength not to top slice on a day like this.

Gocpi

The price action simply dies not reflect the volume of buys going through. It's distorted to the downside by much smaller sells.

That is Human interference which makes my blood boil.

And to be frank, the sale this week just reflects how poorly valued the company is in the first place, by these so called market makers.

It's laughable receiving almost the mcap for a smaller company within the structure, essentially enough to clear the debt. So the market is valuing this company at about 100 million quid on fundamentals.

Don't think so DavidW

They're determined to take it down.

Gutted 20 can't hold even 24 hours after so long in the teens.

Rob

Totally agree more sense to buy the company and spin off everything except Alsa.

But value and future earnings not representative if current mcap.

Take CPI thus week, mcap 260 m sold off a small business for 207 m.

First group sold their NA division couple years ago

WG sold their environment division

All for multiples of their Mcaps.

This time next year improved contract terms post inflation busting payrises will filter through to all divisions again imo.

So anyone buying will buy on multiples of future earning again, possibly 8 or 10 times?

So the problem I see is the first call option on the hybrid next Nov 25, that needs resolving if NA is not sold for a realistic price, without converting the equity element to more debt.

Out of interest, what would you value Alsa at?

Lots of 90k buys going through

Rob

One of the reasons for delaying the sale of NA was to allow for the current bids season to be completed with contracts/ renewals on better inflation linked terms.

Also analysts were touting figures of in excess of 1 billion for that potential sale, 100 million you said, really?????

Wouldn't extra borrowing or essentially adding to tangible debt result in breaching the 3.5 covenant level?

15% rise from here crowman!!!

They mess with your head, they shouldn't be allowed to have such tangible influence on a supposed non human mechanism to price shares.

Both ways up and down.

I would rather they didn't spike us up to 22 in the first place.

The buys probably didn't justify the spike and the sells don't justify a 10% reversal.

It's corrupt as it goes imo

This is why they're the 5cum of the earth, taking us from over 22 back to 19s in no time.

US small caps flying last night, Russell 2000.

Rotation out of tech / megacaps

All kinds of shenanigans going on here, they're playing with the bid/ask, over 9 mill volume in first hour.

Trisor

It's just when a company uses excess capital to buy back shares and reduce the shares in circulation as an alternative to direct shareholder payouts through dividends.

So if they said they were commencing a 20 mill buyback at current price, they would be able to purchase circa 100 mill shares etc

Welcome.

Also buybacks makes sense now whilst the sp is so low and given the 207 million incoming.

Even a token 20/30 mill buyback would send a message.

My monies on Stormy D.