Member Info for JG68

They delivered 63 million FCF at half year, through tight cost control, hedged fuel etc, and anticipate reinstating dividends at FY.
They have the means to reduce debt if they feel they need, and the way things are I would be very surprised if interest rates aren't lower by the end of next year, not what they were but lower than they are.
So possibly refinancing terms to fix debt may be more favourable by then.
This market in the UK is so inadequate and unable to see further than this mornings news.

Knit picker
Thanks for clarifying that

TU in October

Balance Sheet, currency, and interest rates

We are well positioned to weather the current market volatility. We have Inflation protection from fuel hedges, covering 100% of 2023 volumes, and 50% of 2024 volumes. We have long-term supply agreements on the majority of our remaining non-staff costs, with inflation expected to be in the region of 4% over the next 12 months. Staff cost negotiations are ongoing and are progressing in line with our expectations.



Over 80% of debt is at fixed interest rates with no material exposure to increased interest rates until 2024. Because we manage the currency profile of our debt to match the currency in which EBITDA is generated, our covenant leverage is not impacted by currency volatility. We expect to be in line with covenant leverage guidance of 2.5x to 3.0x net debt to EBITDA at year end.

They also made an operating loss of 160 million in 19 and 20, this isn't new for recent times.
Order backlog with decent margins has to be number 1 priority going forward.
It feels possibly like it was the Thai contract issue that shorters became aware of, everything else seems to have been touched on in the half year update.
Will cash inflow from these older contracts which will hopefully come in 1st H 23 go towards reducing debt levels?

I think Iskander has fed the markets 2 pieces of information that have been either naively optimistic, or BS.
Firstly he said the long term capital structure was now secure with equity raise, 600 million bonds and 170 RCF immediately after the equity raise at the beginning of the year. So if a CR is required, that was a load of B.
Secondly he said he expected the large contracts to be evenly awarded in H2 in the half year results.

Who is going to believe anything he says now?

It's a f-----g disaster this for shareholders.
Do you sell at a huge loss and buy back for 50 or 60 tomorrow, or just risk holding a face even more paper losses.

He also said during the full year update for 21 after the capital raise, that their long-term capital structure was secure though the equity raise, 600 million bonds and 170 RCF.
So to be honest, if any sort of capital raise is required in addition to not receiving significant contract awards, his credibility has gone, I wont be believing what he says.

Doubt it, that's probably why the CEO is leaving.
Just one statement he hasn't delivered on.
Hope you're right though.

It can't all be doom and gloom as long as that 600 million bond has not been recalled, because God knows how they would raise that amount through equity.
There are contracts coming in, yes smallish ones, and probably others that aren't necessarily announced.
There are lots of contracts in different countries, some with / for large organisations, and they too must have done due diligence on their preferred contractor.
So if the large contracts that were expected do eventually materialise in 23, then even with shareholder dilution now, that should be offset as and when the revenues / EBITA increases over time. When I paid 115 at the last one, supposedly at a discount, I felt over time it would prove fruitful.
So if one is required now, any worthwhile discount would need to be around 50p, which seems ridiculous.

Perhaps Asfari will try and take it private!
Or perhaps ( and this is just wishful thinking) it was inaccurate leaked information aimed solely at delivering a big 2 fingers to shorters on Tuesday.

It does make little sense to announce cash call when it was 100 at the time of the announcement.
They did say in the last update due to timing of some contracts completing, funds for some that were expected in 22 may not come until early 23. That makes senses.
Also if they had defaulted on credit leading to a recall early of the bonds, is that something that needs to be announced immediately, not weeks later at a standard TU?
And when I last received an email from Jonathan Yarr IR before he left , a few months ago, one thing he said was clearly contract awards gad been deferred and they can't control when their clients award work.
Maybe Asfari has to step in.
Also it is mildly reassuring that schroders still hold nearly 10%, and the other fund increased their stake to 10%.
Surely they would have been fully informed of any need to raise cash in the very near future, wouldn't they ?

What about the huge after hours volume tonight?
11 million UT and about 2 million others bought / sold.
Anyone have any thoughts on that, seems exceptionally large volume?
The problem with a fund raise now is how low the price has got, would require a lot more shares than couple weeks ago.
If a fund raise is required, its no wonder Iskander has gone, he clearly stated the long term capital structure was secure after the last one. I mean last time we all thought we were getting a bargain at 115, look how that's worked out.
Maybe they've got a surprise up their sleeve, and all these shorts get burnt, that woukd make my year.

There is nothing in the public domain that should warrant such a fall here and such an increase in shorts other than the CEO leaving, so the reason has to be either fear and sentiment, or a leak from within the company that has created this situation.
And if its the latter, wheres the accountability, its almost like insider trading and probably worse than the SFO saga.

11 million UT and 2 million more after 4.30.
Showing as buys on advfn but who knows

Like I said earlier, Peel Hunt are clutching at straws and probably in the shorters pocket.
If you read the October update they make reference to North America driver shortages easing, they have referring to wage inflation as far back as the full year results, which is why they said profitability would lag revenue growth this year, with margins expected to be 7% this year, 10% by 2027, with a mean average of pre pandemic levels 9% over the 5 year period.
For once I am fairly relaxed and confident this dirty hedge funds / colluding with brokers, all to try and profit massively.
IMO I think short selling should be far more regulated, they should have to pay for each and every transaction, and brokers should also be subject to a closed period, which is definitely well before a TU is due, analyse afterwards not before, conmen.

Brokerage Liberum cuts rating on co to "hold" from "buy,"
cuts PT to 155p from 240p citing a slow recovery in earnings

** Liberum cuts forecasts on NEX due to possible impact from
increased costs and higher interest rates

** "The slower recovery in earnings undermines our previous
assumption that National Express could reduce leverage through
profit growth alone" - Liberum

** HSBC cuts TP on NEX 230p from 315p

** Eight out of 10 brokerages rate the stock 'buy' or above,
two "hold;" median PT of 235p - Refinitiv Eikon data

** Including session's losses, stock down ~46% YTD
(Reporting by Sruthi Nrasimha Chari in Bengaluru)
((Sruthinarasimha.chari@thoms

Stockepedia

It's 3 of them, Peel Hunt, Liberium and HSBC today, all now blaming squeeze on margins already previously announced by company in previous results.
The UK markets are absolutely weak, cheap, and completely detached from company fundamentals.
They're almost suggesting that things are worse now than when they had minimal money coming in throughout covid.

It's HSBC today, they're working in tandem.

National Express Group NEX.L : HSBC cuts target price to 230p from 315p

It's funny how Peel Hunt failed to mention that this issue in North America with staff shortages was easing when they updated in October.