Member Info for JG68

Does anyone feel the strength of the dollar could influence timescales with this sale, in terms of expressions of interest etc?

The other thing I don't really get is if they are generating plenty of free cashflow, isn't that something that the dividend would come from?

Does that mean the FCF for H2 will have decreased possibly ?

Dramatic turn of events in 84 days!

Well nofear a find like that seems fairly significant and can only have a positive market impact, you would have thought.

Even if the middle east war breaks out tomorrow and markets sell off next week!

You can say that again, I'm about 80k down on this now accross my holdings SIPP/ISA/Trading account.

Before this latest disappointment I was planning to hold even beyond break even and ride it up.

And I wasn't majorly worried as we were being paid to wait it out.

But I think the CFO/CEO/IR are trio of clueless directors way over their heads.

Also check out DGI9, recently cut the dividend, whacked down by 40%, currently sitting at 38p NAV is over a quid.

These kind of values and price action that the mms get away with here would never be tolerated in the US or even Germany imo.

Paddyboy

This situation reminds me exactly of THG, taken down to 30p, consistently missing guidance, total distrust of ceo, yet no sign of turning a profit which is the key difference.

Many investors talking about sum of the parts ie being far in excess of their market cap. Didn't one analyst have ingenuity at two times the market cap at the Time.

If the first group sale is anything to go by as an example of valuing a potential deal, the sum of Alsa has to be 3-4 times current market given its the growing jewel in the crown.

Paddyboy scroll through all the posts today, latest one from hopeless value, earlier from sneedway Joseywales, some working examples ,very helpful

You would have thought that all the main shareholders are having the same conversations that we are all having, and the complete lack of confidence in the BOD must be also shared by them.

I would have thought that 3 years is enough time to get a grip of the business, and really basic costing such as recruitment training for example.

It's bordering on embarrassing this latest u turn.

Surely a removal of both ceo/cfo is surely on the agenda, and if not why not.

Why wasn't this rnsd anyone ?

Given what you're all saying, would it be fair to say that current market cap is ludicrously low to what the sum of the parts so to speak actually are ?

Ronnie seemed to be suggesting that against the enterprise value it wasn't really a screaming bargain at this level.

I guess I'm just trying to reassure myself that the current marketcap of 387 million just seems ludicrous, even allowing for 1 billion debt.

The market is essentially saying if you sold off the entire business ( collectively or separately), paid down all liabilities, this is what's left.

I think Sneedway is right possibly in so much as it's the UK division that needs to go.

I wondered if anyone would be prepared to do a very approximate scenario of how it would materially impact MCG sp and future earnings if say they sold NA for 300 million ? Lots of figures thrown about yesterday so just as an example.

Possibly say using an sp of 60p on day of announcement, and say use 170 ebitda for this fy slightly below their forecast.

I know it would impact future cashflow and earnings, say cashflow for this year is 120, also say their earnings would be forecast to increase elsewhere by 10% next year.

How would the market immediately price us if before debt is reduced they receive that amount?

Possibly also if debt is reduced by that amount How will affect earnings through lower interest payments and reduced costs.

I might be well off the mark and it might be a pointless exercise, just trying to work out the impact if it were that amount.

Many thanks

And could it also be that H2 was too soon for the improved contract rates to filter through to the numbers?

Pokerchips

The 57 mill for a wedrive is a one off so presumably that would be a fair chunk surplus if performance is say like for like next year ?

Thanks v much JW

Shorts increasing yesterday explains a lot in my mind, and just evidences the impact they can have each day.

Gone are the days of price movement affected by supply and demand, means nothing anymore.

Joseywales

1 thing I can't get my head round is the A in Ebitda, is that for those dreaded goodwill impairments?

You're joking right?

Didn't we get an adnoc contract last week?

Makes no difference here.

2 x adnoc contracts 1.1 bill

1 Algeria 1 bill

1 Tenet 1.5 bill

I fitch positive analysis

And we're 61.9 per share.

Either there is significant bad news on the way already known by the market, or its just a complete manipulation by market makers.

What else could it be?

What about fcf pokerchips?

Surely any cash call would have been done at 80 not 60