Member Info for JG68

Pokerchips

I really am happy to give another couple of years to bear fruit, just want to know if things are showing signs of improvement in q1 24. Then I'll shut up!!!

So why not a brief update on current trading seeing we're a quarter in?

Surely if it was half decent they would throw in a couple of sentences.

We have no idea how current trading is since October except the paragraphs about Alsa and NA in the 7th Feb RNS.

Are we not owed that at the least?

Essentially there have been 3 profit warnings of sorts now starting in October ( 4 if you include June in 22 when this all seemed to start).

Only shred of comfort is Cosmens adding and Pokerchips relaxed view!!

This ain't going to £2 Mary without a bid.

The board can't be trusted again.

They've tried to pull the wool over our eyes but the markets seen through it.

Trying to make out all is good upgrading their guidance whilst just missing their latest having only reiterated it a few months ago, after year end.

And they're sneakily pushed back fcf to 25.

135 and I'm out with a loss here. No reason to hold.

They must have realised that yesterday's announcement was another let down, so I really don't get why they didn't offer a brief update on how current trading is. Unless of course we're in for further disappointment when that is eventually updated.

And now I suspect even half decent guidance or outlook will be brushed off by the market, taken with a pinch of salt, until the actual figures are confirmed and agreed by auditors ( for the current year).

And not forgetting further write downs too.

Personally I'm now relying on macro, a rally with any interest rate cuts, and an external party to pay well for NA.

Like you mavswf I'm well overweight and well underwater, but I've only added here, I'm not trading in and out, but it's becoming really concerning when you simply don't trust any guidance or targets stated by the board.

I have to say though yesterday and this morning there seemed to be a lot of strength in the price action which I wondering why.

Total 5h1t show this

Faired OK yesterday on actual news and fall 6% on broker ratings on past performance.

Says it all about the the London stock market.

Can't imagine any shareholders are happy after rejecting Apollo last year.

It's just on top of everything, another kick in the teeth.

I'm well overweight here, uncomfortably so, and like most well underwater.

We need a break for once and this doesn't help at all and it's backward looking.

Just seems a cheap shot when they don't know what current trading is.

Could well take a nasty hit on that now.

No capital allocation until 25.

And negative FCF for year end.

No mention of job cuts though.

That's all we need after holding up well yesterday, kick in the teeth by brokers who are never right but often have a hugely negative impact.

Just add further, not so sure about these assumptions about azvalor now, I know they're Spanish but they also have a large holding in PFC accross 2 funds in excess of 25% in total. So possibly Cosmens know them and would vote accordingly but I don't think they're his puppet.

Xxxaccountant

Makes sense what you say, so you're more or less suggesting a disagreement of sorts between say Cosmen and Garat/Stamp in terns of RI / strategy ?

Besides an RI would have made more sense a year ago, not at this price unless it was significantly dilutive. And it's not as if they necessarily need cash given the cash balance and operating cashflow.

I think as pokerchips suggested today that the reason for not tanking today is we are approaching q2 and essentially 23 is done now, it's about current and forward looking, whereas the profit warning in October was bang during last financial year.

So you're also suggesting what if they add another 1%?

Me too, amazed given the usual reaction here to yet another downgrade.

Maybe there is large buying ( cosmens) behind the scenes that's supporting us today.

Pokerchips

Got you.

Thank you

Pokerchips

Although it's a liability its only say 95 ÷ say 8 years for the year and each year thereafter, right?

Not sure I understand your point there, are you just saying eps will be negatively affected?

I'm just seeing as an expense which hopefully will be insignificant if and when earning start to grow again.

So absolute worst case scenario 160 earning for 23

And 95 provision for German contracts over the lifetime of the contract until 32.

And possibly 175 earnings and at a later date an increase in monies claimed from the German transport authority which will essentially be a Brucie bonus at some point this year.

And it was clarified in the call that there will an update on the NA sale when the results are released.

But no mention of q1 trading so we can assume that will be during the FY23 release.

Have I got that right ?

Pokerchips

This is from MARYs comment earlier about 24 million hit in 24?

What do you mean double hit 24 mill in 24?

Mary

Why no update on NA sale or q1 trading.

Is the cfo out if hus depth?

Why do they consistently misguide only to revise a few weeks later?