RE: Clarity needed21 Nov 2018 12:08
I agree. With no buyer there can't be a LE. So what of this Plan B and how does it tie-in with a potential LE? I suspect Plan B will be to drill Sidi, which would mean more money, more time and will undoubtedly push the LE back in time to possibly late 2019 / early 2020. Sidi has been referenced to be JP's fall back plan in previous presentations, so it wouldn't surprise me if all three drills fail we go after Sidi in an attempt to add value and increase our price tag.
This could all go horribly wrong or amazingly well from this point forward. It's a toss of a coin and good old fashioned lady luck is needed in times like this, no matter what JP will tell you all today. At the end of the day the drill bit will always have the last say and no amount of hype or feelgood factor can ever change that.
With there having been three dusters in a row, surely our luck has to change on the next well? My gut feeling for Te-9 was that it would be a duster. With Te-10 my gut is telling me that this time around it will be a success. It only takes one successful well to move towards the LE and should we drill Te-11 and that proves to also be a success then happy days. However, I suspect that should Te-10 be a success, we won't drill Te-11 and the rig will be demobilised, our assets packaged-up and share price suspended while a deal is fleshed out. I say this due to the risk-reward element. You wouldn't want to risk a duster at Te-11 should Te-10 prove to be a success IMO, but no doubt many people will have a differing view to mine. It's far better trying to sell a company off the back of a successful result than it is a duster. I think everybody is in agreeance with that, right?
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