Member Info for jesteh

I have gone for 95p for a bit of fun - that is the price I would expect in E& takeover. I recognise this is not realistic yet but there is always a small chance.

I expect that results tomorrow to be positive in so far that Vodafone will hit the target - some lower or higher but on target overall. SP will reach close to 80p by end of the week on combination of positive results, new targets, increased dividend and cancellations of the treasury shares. That would put it on same footing as BT were following their results few months ago.

The real question is can the CEO pull off the turnaround in confidence in the way BT CEO did If MDV can't, SP will go back into mid 60s and I suspect we'll be looking for a new CEO as well as a CFO.

95p please

I think unlucky has personal value target for Vodafone and just repeats it every week. To be fair, Deutsche Bank are valuing it the same - so can't be that crazy. And its no more boring than predicting 2-3p movement in the wrong direction week after week.

76p please.

"The whole capitalist model is built on debts, paying them off and netting the bounty... Yet many on here frequently peddle ideologically debt purist nonsense!"

Sorry but what are you even talking about? I provided answer to specific concern that someone raised that Swisscom are getting more out of Italy asset than Vodafone were - which was inaccurate, they had increase in revenue with flat profit/ FCF - exactly the same problem Vodafone had.

Can we focus on Vodafone and stop putting the world to right - there has to be a social board somewhere for that.

Swisscom revenue up 40%, profit up 3%, EBITDA down 0.8%, FCF unchanged.

Revenue is vanity, profit is sanity, cash is reality.

Considering that he continues to be more invested in Vodafone both in absolute and relative terms than anyone posting here, I see this as neutral sign - I would worry if he sold up. I disagree that he was a bad CFO, he did everything expected of him, but he was not a generational talent. There are plenty of equally good people queueing up already, I am sure. There is even a slim chance that Luka knows something we do not and his leaving may signal bigger changes for the board and shareholders.

p.s. Agree on the dress code but to be fair, they all do it now. At least he wasn't combining formal suit and jeans.

75p please.

"Jesteh. You are so right. Crazy black or white opinions on here. Fill your your boots can't lose, or disaster,"

Daniel, I assume you think its crazy positive opinion that it will go above 80p? But consider last month, it was at 63p and now its 73p, 15% movement on nothing. So why is it crazy to think it can gain another 15% on good FY results?

Its not exciting business but consider they delivered what they promised - paid debt, mergers, disposals, hitting most target (except one large country). They just need to put it in powerpoint and sell it. Tell me why you expect it to drop?

My prediction is 76-78p in run up to May results and low 80s following results.

Downsides are Germany, upsides all other markets. UK merger will likely reduce FCF target for next year. They will also announce treasury cancellations = improved EPS and a small increase to the dividend.

Overall, at the current price, they don't need to grow to increase the SP, just need to meet the targets. Not difficult.

Honestly, this is just a crazy thread that demonstrates everything thats wrong with investments.

Unluckyinvestor suggests playfully that Vodafone is a good investment. Gets a mental health check (quite rightly).

Mole_man suggests seriously that the end of the world is coming and that is a buy signal for Tesla/Starlink. Where's his mental health check?

Can we please move away from personal bickering towards discussing Vodafone? I find myself checking this board less often and I probably missed some useful posts as its buried in constant bickering about who said what and when. Like seriously, no-one outside a small group of two or three cares, most of us come here to read about Vodafone. Can we please move on.

Speaking of which, did anyone notice that BT market cap is creeping towards Vodafone.

"US citizens are watching their 401K's going down the toilet, and unlike us they're not used to seeing their stocks fall in value;"

I think this is a great point but I am not sure how accurate it is. I am assuming that 401k is equivalent to UK defined contribution pension scheme. Employee pays a proportion of their salary each month, employer contributes (or not), pot is owned by the employee. Employee can log on and check the projected retirement age, the size of the pot and historic performance (cue fancy multicolor line charts designed to confuse most people). The headline figure is "retirement age" but for most people this is based on projected monthly contribution over the next 10-30 years rather than the daily price fluctuations. Also being in a global tracker of some sort, there is no trading requirement and most people only check annual statements if at all.

In this case, I doubt most Americans are seeing their 401k going down in real time, at least not yet.

"Well that’s not true, I think most people would consider a bank account would be safer, is anyone who has invested here in the last 25 years in profit 🤔."

I was not even comparing to staying in cash being that this is investing board.

I mean - If we are going to pick random points in the past, lets say I invested in Vodafone in 90s when the price was under under 6p. That would make it better than keeping money in a bank for last 30+ years, would it not?

I am not suggesting that this has been a great investment for past investors, but that the comparison like this are of little value. (other than explaining the negative market sentiment towards Vodafone).

We all presumably keep shares and cash assets in varying proportion based on our risk profile. I am not suggesting that you should spend all your savings to buy Vodafone. For those of us who choose to invest, I believe that Vodafone carries far less risk at the current share price and current market conditions than many other listed companies.

Please feel free to disagree but provide some reasons other than past company performance.

"If you think that digital services like AWS, Google and Microsoft can't be targeted by Governments, think again, the thing about digital services is that they can easily be replaced by local providers."

This is a massive risk for US and one they haven't priced in. I work in a large tech company and we have slowlyreplaced all our data centres with AWS + GCP for a marginal cost saving. The key technologies underpinning all are open source and well understood, they just have the economies of scale to drive costs down. I do not think Amazon / Google / Microsoft will lose the business but they will 100% have to 'eat the tariffs' and adapt to continue being the cheapest.

Its a similar situation to that in telecoms consumer market for the last decade with no product differentiation = price matters so I would be very careful investing into US tech giants at current revenue forecasts and high multipliers. Final point to add to the risk bucket is the regulatory risk of of government blocking products/services from hostile nations (similar to Vodafone - Huawei) and its all looking a bit unsafe. Seems a bit far fetched but so does the whole tariff situation.

OK so you were right Avocet, but your argument does not hold water.

You suggest that consumers will expect lower prices - this can only happen with change in competition or regulation, neither of which happened.

There is talk about bond sell off - Vodafone would have marginal impact but only on debt re-finance depending on how long this lasts.

And finally cost of long term borrowing goes up massively and stays. In that scenario - hyperinflation, bank bailouts, society breakdown. Whether you owned Dogafone or Nvdia is irrelevant, we'll be fighting over trash barrels and mouldy pasta.

I am personally adding - 63p is a great entry point and money is as safe here as anywhere. You can make fun of me when its at 30-50p.

This is just more market inefficiency nonsense.

Some investors do not like Vodafone as a company / stock, I don't disagree with them - they have been right to date.

But you can't tell me that efficient market seriously concluded that Vodafone or BT are one of the most impacted businesses due to US tariffs? As in more significantly impacted than BAE, RR or ULVR? Because that is what the share price is telling us.

Vodafone drop over last week is IMO a great opportunity to make a small and relatively safe margin on short term price changes. I am not suggesting it will go back to 120-240p but if it was 75p couple of weeks ago, there is a good chance it'll be 75p again soon with little capital risk.

"Meanwhile tech growth companies are taking over, and annoyingly they are all US, cause who would invest in UK right now? "

Are you not following the news? Everything is moving from Global to Local, turbo charged by Trump. Large cap US companies will not go away but they don't have to. They just have miss their ambitious targets for a few quarters as the new world order sets in. Look at the share price of Eutelsat or Rheinmetal or BAE - where do you think that money came from?

"Looking at the last 20 years, its more likely you will be able to "top up" in the 40's soon."

That is bitter investor talk. :-)

Market does not care about the last 20 years. No company making a takeover bid ever said "We will offer the 30% premium on the average price over the last 20 years".

All that matters is the present and future outlook.

If we focus on the earnings potential + debt, Vodafone looks cheap vs sector. If not, maybe invest in Tesla, their last 20 years indicate they will skyrocket.

LOL, mole_man is so predictable, quiet when its sunny but pops up immediately on a rainy day. You really must lead a sad life to keep constantly checking on company you have stated have no interest in investing.

IMO, this is a meaningless drop on old news, its not ideal but it will help buybacks.