Member Info for JerseyCrew

We might be being caught up in the global market / Trump tariff mess first thing this morning but smart investors will go back to the fundamentals here - we are an AI company focusing on the APAC market and as such there should be little to no impact on price of luxury goods from US tariffs, the majority of which I suspect are actually manufactured in APAC countries unless someone knows differently. Also given we are targeting the luxury market, the end consumers are actually the last to feel any knock on global impact - its a regressive tax that impacts those than can least afford it, the most. Net result on Sealand - should be none frankly in hard commercial terms - just very short term investor jitters. Big money investors here will understand that - they will also see an opportunity to take advantage of any jitters.

GLA

Bebeto - the world moves on but you are a rock in a sea of change.

"What was once unviable becomes viable at higher prices"

Brilliant insight - I guess given the right numbers that could apply to most commodities.

Any issues with my math? Happy to be corrected on numbers and potential here rather than get into less quantitive debate such as motive. But talking about motive - aren't we all invested to make money and that is the main thing here? Or are you still consumed by the past? Looking backwards is useful for learning - looking forward is useful for making money.

Davemcmanus. Suggest you consider a number of factors - potential size of dilution / increase in GP% since the last business case made / future direction of POG.

You need to stick your own numbers in until we know the facts.

We can take an educated guess at the Gross Profit Margin - POG less AISC

In the April 2023 corporate presentation (links on their website - https://caracalgold.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/06/CP001.Caracal-Gold-Presentation-Mines-and-Money-April-2023.pdf), the business case stated AISC $1095 - at that time POG was circa $2K but I seem to remember from somewhere that they used $1650 in the calculation. So if I am near the mark, a GP of circa 35% in round numbers. Now with POG of say $3000 to be conservative and lets say AISC of $1500 for inflation and easy math, GP could now by 50% - so GP has increased in % terms (% of %) by 30% and of course that is on a POG which nearly double. Lets do some worked examples for an Oz of gold

2023 - 1650 POG / AISC 1095 = 555 GP (33.6%)

2025 - 3100 POG / AISC guess 1500 = 1600 GP (51.6%)

In monetary terms the actual GP per Oz has potentially increased by 200%!

Lets go on and take a wild guess at 2027...

2027 - 3500 POG / AISC guess 1700 = 1800 GP still 51.4% - but go to $4K POG and its 2300 GP / 57.5% on a larger number

I know it's all theoretical but people need to understand the correlation between the POG and AISC and frankly the wider market still hasn't fully woken to the impact on miners profitability ratios and ergo stock prices. They will catch up though in due course. The mismatch between POG and miners still needs to be considered in looking to the future with GCATs future MC.

Other factors to consider are of course the expansion plans and what is the planned output and within what timescale. I'm hoping that the company builds slowly but sustainably - the key is to delivering on plans going forward - it gives the market confidence and it allows the company to in part, organically grow and not be totally reliant on funding.

The other considerations is the size of the JORC resources and the potential for this to grow if the exploration resumes which I expect it to in time including TZ.

So in conclusion, I think that current investors will get something back but the company clearly has a number of milestones to reach first. Robbie has at long last got some support with JB and all that he can bring to the table. JB will have thought long and hard about associating himself with GCAT - he knows the business and opportunity inside out given his past association and he must believe that there is a good commercial operation here that can be resurrected.

Your question was about dilution which is valid but maybe think in terms of market capitalisation - at the suspended price $7M. Look at the 2023 presentation again and do some of your own calculations.

Personally although it might take 12 to 24 months, I think that CGAT has massive potential to really surprise investors p

Surprisingly few late reported trades at the moment - either still doing their sums or holding back to confuse during tomorrows fun and games!

Thanks for sharing but too much information

My first filter from this group

Avocet - please explain the volume that the MMs are prepared to give an instant quote for.....genuine question

Sorry for the running commentary - but when they are happy to give an instant quote for £30K at 1.106 I thought it worth mentioning

Large order being filled - should be interesting

1.081 for £25K - very hungry - instant quote

Feels like MMs accumulating again - instant bid 1.091 for £15K

And as Paul would say - That's Magic!

I'm no expert but it felt like a stop loss drop - could be very wrong of course

The MMs have more magic tricks to help you part with your share than Paul Daniels. Your choice whether the last few movements are slight of hand or the herd moving - feels like the former to me personally.

Marvellous thought Jenny - lets refuel and send them off again this afternoon .... to Mars :-)

Magoo - I am sure that many will share your view. If your are referring to OCIM walking, I think he addressed that. I am prepare to give him the benefit to the doubt and I think he expressed a view which he believed to be true at the time. I think he was overly optimistic and trusted people who let him down. I have no doubt he would have done so much differently with hindsight.

My personal view for what its worth, is that whilst JB and whomever joins still has a lot to do - once we get the accounts published and the FCA gives the all clear to come out of suspension, then it will open doors to potential investors and the prospectus can be issued hopefully against the backdrop of a coherent and robust business plan - no promising the earth in the short term but a sustainable ramp up in production - generate cash, clear outstanding creditors if needed and start to reinvest in expansion and the drill but to increase JORC resource. One step at a time and I believe Robbie has a signifcant part to play still - but this time he isn't the only player on the pitch. Just my view.

For the top up opportunity earlier - might have mentioned it - but thanks again. Looking down the back of the sofa now!!

Luke - have we moved to Thunderbirds now :-)

Scooby snack still in everyday use in my teenage household - to fill in the several gaps between meals - should have named them all Shaggy but I think it would have sent the wrong message out for my daughter!!!

TyreTread - don't forget 60's& 70's - no ageism here :-)