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Dave - there are so many levels of granularity that we can apply here in our discussion - we can keep at a high level helicopter view and worry about dilution and point out the obvious like we don't know what the future will hold, or we can try and use this forum to debate and try and drill down to the hard business facts - P&L / BS and the less quantifiable nuances of sentiment - but there is a correlation of course. Any investor (not retail stock investor - business investor) will do their due diligence on the feasibility and also the jurisdiction / political (local and national) landscape.

I have concentrated on just one aspect of this - the balance sheet and how an asset view could be represented - gold in the ground. Even if not in the balance sheet, it could be considered a hidden reserve. We are not 100% an exploration company - we are a blend - we have a JORC resource but we are bering valued on pure exploration terms in my view and that is only because investors walked with OCIM and we have never recovered. BUT POG has doubled since then, significantly increasing forecast bottom line profitability. That helps create a compelling business case.

Did Robbie step down because of Synergy? What does it matter? I suspect that until we are producing then Robbie will be tainted with the past because he was the CEO and no one will be interested unfortunately in the rights or wrongs of what happened. I have my own view on that and I remain firmly in believing in Robbie.

Bebeto commented on using Grok - it looks fine to me - if Bebeto wants to point out omissions then we can recalculate - but remember I put in a 50% haircut on the valuation and we should still have considerable headroom allowance for any dilution frankly - but if people want to suggest different numbers then please bring them to the table. It gets tedious when people try and argue against a clearly laid out set of numbers, with frankly meaningless words unless they are substantiated - everyone is guessing here but few are prepared to put numbers forward it seems.

Dave - I have taken the time to include a lot of numbers with a lot of specific worked examples. Any comments, questions or observations?

Dave - I have taken the time to include a lot of numbers with a lot of specific worked examples. Any comments, questions or observations?

Resources: Non-reserve ounces (1.16 Moz) are riskier, valued at $20–$100/oz. At $50/oz: 1.16 Moz × $50 = $58 million.

Total: Reserves ($60 million) + non-reserve resources ($58 million) = $118 million.

Recent Updates (as of April 5, 2025)

Kilimapesa (Kenya):

X posts from @CaracalGoldplc (April 1–4, 2025) highlight recapitalization efforts and Jason Brewer’s appointment as an executive director to resume operations. A June 2024 Share Talk update noted $1 million secured from Cynergy Global Ltd for expansion, though artisanal disruptions halted open-pit mining in 2024.

No new JORC MRE since 2022’s 705 koz, despite claims of targeting +2 Moz.

Nyakafuru (Tanzania):

A Mining Weekly report (October 28, 2024) confirmed a mining license for Kanegele, positioning it for rapid development as an open-pit, carbon-in-leach operation. Next steps include drilling and studies, but no 2025 JORC update is public.

Web updates (Caracal Gold, 2024) reaffirm the 658,751 oz resource, with potential to expand via targeted drilling.

Final Estimate for Caracal Gold (Kenya + Tanzania)

Reserves: $60 million (0.2 Moz at $300/oz, all from Kilimapesa).

Total Resources: $118 million (1.36 Moz, with reserves at $300/oz and non-reserves at $50/oz).

Breakdown

Kilimapesa: ~$85.25 million (705 koz: 200 koz reserves at $300/oz = $60 million + 505 koz at $50/oz = $25.25 million).

Nyakafuru: ~$32.94 million (658.751 koz at $50/oz, no reserves).

Caveats

Data Lag: The 705 koz (Kenya) and 658.751 koz (Tanzania) figures are from 2022 and 2023, respectively. Exploration may have increased these, but no 2025 JORC update is confirmed.

Risks: Kilimapesa faces funding and operational challenges; Nyakafuru’s value hinges on development progress.

Upside: Both assets have exploration potential (2 Moz+ at Kilimapesa, further growth at Nyakafuru), which could boost future valuations.

This $118 million reflects Caracal’s current JORC-compliant "in the ground" value across Kenya and Tanzania.

Focusing on Caracal Gold’s JORC-compliant gold resources and reserves "in the ground" in Kenya (Kilimapesa Gold Mine) and Tanzania (Nyakafuru Project), incorporating recent updates as of April 5, 2025. I’ve searched for the latest available information from web sources and posts on X to refine the estimates, though comprehensive 2025 data remains limited.

Overview of Caracal Gold

Caracal Gold PLC (LSE: GCAT) is an East African gold producer with operations in Kenya and Tanzania. Its flagship Kilimapesa Gold Mine in Kenya and the Nyakafuru Project in Tanzania together host over 1.3 million ounces (Moz) of JORC-compliant gold resources. The company aims to increase production to 24,000 oz p.a. at Kilimapesa and develop Nyakafuru into a 50,000 oz p.a. operation, targeting a total resource base exceeding 3 Moz.

Step 1: Latest JORC-Compliant Estimates

Kilimapesa Gold Mine (Kenya):

Resources: The most recent JORC-compliant Mineral Resource Estimate (MRE) from July 2022 reports 14.05 million tonnes (Mt) at 1.56 g/t gold, totaling 705,000 ounces (koz) at a 1 g/t cut-off. This includes Kilimapesa Hill (12.15 Mt @ 1.5 g/t for 565.7 koz) and Red Ray deposits. Exploration since 2022 (e.g., a 7km mineralized zone identified) suggests potential to exceed 1 Moz, but no updated MRE is public as of April 2025.

Reserves: No specific JORC-compliant reserve figure is recent. Estimating 20–40% conversion from resources, reserves are ~0.14–0.28 Moz. Given production plans (24,000 oz p.a.), I’ll use 0.2 Moz as a conservative estimate.

Nyakafuru Project (Tanzania):

Resources: Caracal completed its acquisition of Tyacks Gold Ltd in 2023, securing a JORC-compliant resource of 658,751 oz at 2.08 g/t across four deposits (Voyager, Mentelle, Cullen, Leeuwin-Grange) over 280 km². A 2024 review confirmed this figure, with exploration potential noted. A mining license for the Kanegele project within Nyakafuru was granted in October 2024, per Mining Weekly, but no updated MRE is available.

Reserves: No JORC-compliant reserves are defined yet, as Nyakafuru remains in the exploration-to-development phase. I’ll assume 0 oz reserves until feasibility studies confirm conversion.

Totals:

Resources: Kilimapesa (705 koz) + Nyakafuru (658.751 koz) = 1.363751 Moz (~1.36 Moz).

Reserves: Kilimapesa (200 koz) + Nyakafuru (0 koz) = 0.2 Moz.

Step 2: Gold Price as of April 5, 2025

Gold prices in late 2024 were ~$2,600–$2,700/oz. Assuming slight growth or stability, I’ll use $2,700/oz for calculations.

Step 3: Gross Value Calculation

Reserves: 0.2 Moz × $2,700/oz = $540 million.

Resources (including reserves): 1.36 Moz × $2,700/oz = $3.672 billion.

Step 4: "In the Ground" Value

The "in the ground" value discounts unextracted gold for development costs and risks:

Reserves: Valued at $200–$500/oz due to production readiness. At $300/oz: 0.2 Moz × $300 = $60 million.

Resources: Non-reserve ounces (1.16 Moz) are riskier, valued at $20–$100/oz. At $50/oz

(cont)

Lets go for a really high dilution in my mind - 300% - total shares in circulation 10B - at 0.3 0ur MCAP would still only be £30M - our in the ground resource valuation if GROK has it 50% wrong is at least £45M - still 50% more than any prospectus price and so yes - investors at this price would be getting in on the cheap. But current investors would not be in any worse position if the market twigs on to some basic valuations of what we have in the ground in isolation.

I'm afraid your lost me with your share consolidation arguement - in theory consolidation is normally reflected more or less with a rebalance in the price - that is where MCAP comes in.

I will share GROKs valuation - it makes sense to me...

Dave - its a really useful discussion but can we agree to be civil in having it please. I think that we have the opportunity to flesh out the issues and actually work together with some numbers. Perhaps hold fire until you conclude my figures mean sod all.

I will come back to your numbers just to follow those through to make sure I understand your thoughts correclty.

Can I suggest we try and separate the confidence in the previous management of this company and the actual resource and possible production - and maybe just start with resource for that matter. Difficult to argue with a JORC resource and we have that in the ground - 1.3M oz. I am sure you know all of this and not trying to teach you lessons but for anyone reading who might not fully appreciate that gold in the ground can be valued very differently depending on jurisdiction / grade / whether it is under a mining licence and therefore whether a feasibility has been carried out. So we have a JORC resource with mining licences in West Africa of 1.3M oz which is gold in the ground - estimated valued at $118M (£91M) - I will share the calculations which I didn't do - I got Grok to do for me.

So at this point I am discounting managerial ability and anything subjective - just hard cash in the ground and then considering the MCAP. Current MCAP - 2.48B shares ,multiplied by suspended price 0.275p = £6.8M . Lets say my gold in the ground valuation is 50% out (I don't think it is) and its £45M - our current MCAP is 15% of that - in other words we could have dilution of 650% before we got to the point where an MCAP equalled the in the ground resource valuation. If my (Groks) figures are accurate and I think they are - then the reality is 1300%. You will see that the in the ground valuation uses a POG of $2700 as the overarching number and so even this number will be conservative in the next few years.

Please note that I haven't even touched upon potential valuation associated with ongoing development / production and exploration efforts to increase the JORC numbers.

Turning to your numbers Dave - I am not sure that I follow your maths - 90% dilution leading to 20B shares? but if we go with an increase of 17.5B shares at 0.275 (I think they will use 0.3 or really hack off long term large investors) that is supposing they need to account for some £48M of debt / funding? Not sure where numbers of that size would come from.

(cont)

Dave - explain to me please in mathematical terms and maybe some worked examples, how heavy dilution leaves exiting investors with nothing. I believe it has everything to do with MCAP. Future valuations (MCAP) will be dictated to by POG / AISC and ergo profitability and then MCAP earning multiples in line with industry norms at that point in time - and of course the unknown sentiment factor.

I am not ramping - I am however questioning your assertion and the basis off your thesis.

Dave - for current investors to get nothing, the company must fold. Given the JORC resources and POG I personally don’t see that happening. I’ve tried to explain why I think funders have not been forthcoming and it’s nothing to do with the underlying business case potential but the prospect that they might have been able to pick up the mining licenses for a greatly reduced price, had they sat back and watch the company fail from the sidelines. Ongoing delays would have added local political pressure into the mix because there are local impacts with the workforce who are not able to earn a living. We needed something to cut the Gordian knot and I think that JB has the sword. I’m not looking at this through rose tinted glasses and we have a number of hurdles ahead - the first of course is getting the shares trading again. The suspension has been in my view has also been a huge barrier to any investor putting in funds - 100% understandable. Robbie somewhere has been spinning plates and keeping the company on life support until a white knight appeared. I think JB can fulfil that role. My point I guess is that at the moment it is far too premature to try and assess the future. A previous poster mentioned business plan and prospectus being required to get a sense of where we are going. I’ve outlined my thoughts on very high level economics but timelines and outputs are missing.

It’s been a horrible couple of years here for investors but POG has virtually doubled since the last commercial business case was alluded to and so I can’t help but feel optimistic that this can be turned around.

I have been in touch with Daniel - he has been banned for a couple of days for cross ramping but he is still very much invested here. He shared some research on the TG group which I hadn’t seen before and he agreed I could share here. Well worth a read…

https://envoi.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/P267UOG(Jamaica)EnvoiSynopsisRev1.pdf

https://envoi.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/P267UOG(Jamaica)EnvoiResourceUpdate(Feb24).pdf

ATB

The key question is how the market values the company against a future business plan. We have a JORC deposit. Yes number of shares will increase but the MC is the crucial thing. Look at the distressed state of the business when we were suspended and the POG. There are many parts to this equation- I would not jump to conclusions without the facts.

CGAT tweeting again this morning

How will current holders get nothing ?

Instant quote to sell £25K - says it all - can't buy £250 though

Instant quote on a £10K sale - went from 0.91 to 0.915 and now 0.922 in about 10 minutes - feels like a tree shake to fill a large order - BWTFDIK

Given you can get an instant (rubbish~) quote for £10K worth, it does appear that MMs are accumulating

MMs very happy to provide instant quotes on sizeable amounts - good liquidity

We are making headway so far today, when every UK indice is showing red - huge endorsement

In choppy global waters it is great to see.

Bebeto - I find myself fully agreeing with your last post and dare I say it - I detect some optimism there as well.

Lets hope all of us get our returns here - might take a while but I think that with the right plan from Jason, further patience will be rewarded.

ATB