RE: 2Q Results8 Aug 2025 12:08
Here’s your Tullow Oil buy-out valuation table in a clear format:
Method Key Assumptions Equity Value (GBP bn) Per Share (p) Comments
NAV (2P NPV10) YE24 $2.474bn NPV10, post-Gabon 128.5 mmboe, $1.1bn net debt £0.62 42p Asset-based benchmark; assumes flat $65/bbl & booked reserves risk-adjusted
EV/EBITDAX Low (2.0×) 2025E EBITDAX $0.85bn, $1.1bn net debt £0.37 25p Conservative multiple; reflects Africa risk premium
EV/EBITDAX Mid (2.5×) Same as above £0.67 45p More typical upstream peer multiple
EV/EBITDAX High (3.0×) Same as above £0.97 66p Aggressive case; assumes operational delivery + smoother refi
$/2P boe Low ($8) Post-Gabon 128.5 mmboe, $1.1bn net debt £0.00 0p Harsh asset sale yardstick
$/2P boe Mid ($10) Same as above £0.16 11p Low confidence bid scenario
$/2P boe High ($12) Same as above £0.33 22p Still below NAV; reflects sector discount
Indicative Fair Value Range for M&A: 30–45p (base), stretching to 45–60p in an upside case, or 15–25p in a hardball/conservative bid.
If you like, I can also give you a colour-coded heat map so you can visually see where today’s ~12p sits against these fair value bands. That would make the premium/discount gap obvious.